IWPR is trying to counter false information in more than 30 countries by building capacity of local media and NGOs. Therefore, Anthony Borden, executive director at IWPR, is aware of processes taking place in the media and civilian sector, in general, and in Central Asia, in particular. CABAR.asia asked Borden to share his opinion about the processes taking place today.
– Anthony, a fundraising conference took place in London in June to rebuild Ukraine. Do you think it is a sign that the war is going to end soon and the countries are raising funds to restore the national economy there?
– I’d like to believe in it. But I am not sure this is the right opinion of what is happening. Ukraine is now conducting offensive actions because Russians have seized its land and Ukraine needs to take its territories back. Offensive is a must and it is inevitable.
There’s an opinion that this offensive should be supported and it will be clear how far they will go. Afterwards, there can be a chance for a negotiated settlement, yet it depends on the progress in the offensive. If the offensive fails, or none of the parties feels like negotiating afterwards, there will be no settlement. Thus, here and now, we do not know it the war is going to end in six or nine months, or it will be a long-lasting one.
There are two adversaries. Ukraine believes that Russia has long-term interests in attacking their country. Therefore, they are determined to free all of their territory. Meanwhile, Russia might count on political factors that mean that time is on its side. For example, elections in the U.S. (presidential elections of 2024 – Editor’s note) may have a strong influence on the situation. Thus, both parties have reasons to continue the fight, which is very sad for Ukraine, its people and the military, who die every day.
– Speaking of Central Asia in terms of the war, there is a lot of opinions today regarding the forces that may have their influence on the region. What country, the U.S., European Union, China or Russia, in your opinion, can have the biggest influence on Central Asia?
– It is an important question for Central Asia, taking into account a very critical situation in the region. You could be a forgotten or remote area for some people yesterday, but now you are in the centre of the world, right at the intersection of everything: energy, political, transport communications. You are in the interests of Russia, China and the West. These days, China is a growing global power. It is clearly seen in its policy of coverage and involvement, financial influence and the thing that is called sharp power, which uses its methods of influence.
You can be absolutely sure that they will not disregard Central Asian states to assert its role in the world because Central Asia is located right next to it. Moreover, China has much influence in Russia. So, it’s clear that China will be quite an influential power here, if not the main one.
The U.S. and Europe have different interests. They are interested in values and relationships, they do not seek control, they hope for open societies for trading and better democracies in the regions. And it depends on whether Western America and European Union have the sufficient amount of attention, obligations and resources to support Central Asia in this process. The West has its own issues, which he deals with, and it has no long-term approach unlike China, which poses a real risk.
How does war in Ukraine affect the spread of false news and propaganda all around the world?
Our organisation takes false information as a serious global threat as it divides our societies, incites conflicts and prevents us as a rational society from solving global, even existential issues.
Russia has a narrative about Ukraine. The narrative is that Ukraine does not exist among the Ukrainian people and is not a nation, and that they do not have a sovereign right to be there. This is the core, their key propaganda line. They use it very widely and subtly. Previously, the soviet propaganda had a particular cost and limit, but now online propaganda spreads fast and cheaply.
Social media have incredible influence. You can hire young people not to build democracy and freedom, but to spread lies on data farms via Telegram very fast and subtly. Moreover, they do it so that other people do not notice it because they are not aware, do not accept or do not know that they receive false information. So, it does have a very dangerous influence, especially given that Ukraine is a critical subject for propaganda.
These are all part of tools used by Russia, portion of its own strategic interests in these regions as Russia wants to have influence in former Soviet republics. When I see what is going on in Ukraine, I want to say this is a terrible invasion. But we have seen invasion of Georgia and you see propaganda patterns in this group. Thus, their strategy was obviously to strengthen their influence and control over these states. In other words, they have used different tactics in different states, yet their strategy was the same.
What can you say about the situation with the freedom of speech in Central Asian states if we compare it to the global situation?
It’s very sad to say that Central Asian states are ranking last in the freedom of speech rankings and make steps backwards in terms of oppression of the freedom of speech. It can be made in many ways: you can arrest people, you can prosecute them, make their lives difficult, pass the law on foreign agents, although it is clear that it’s not about western agents, but about access to necessary resources and funding. I would say that the freedom of speech is being attacked all over the world. But I’d like to note that Central Asian states are a special red line threatening the freedom of speech around the world.
Why do our authorities do so?
This is a complex question, which I am not competent to answer. But I think the reason is the same why governments do so. It is to defend their force, their powers. They believe it is the best way to have control over societies and to remain in power. In this particular situation with Central Asia, it is the influence of Russia, its behind-the-scenes manipulations.
What do you think journalists and civil activists must do to counter it?
For me living in London it would be too bold to say what the society must do because people doing something here do it at a substantial risk.
If we look at it both on a global scale and particularly on the Central Asian scale, the level of freedom of speech declined and governments make more active steps to restrict freedom of expression, set control over the information space and take measures to restrict free voices, including by means of imprisonment and prosecutions. Even the law and rules introduced to counter false information have such structure as to be used as a method of control.
You should have no doubt about governments’ awareness of their interest in strengthening control over the information space. So, the media and civil society are recommended (I admit that I do not necessarily do what I recommend) to be courageous and fight stronger because it really depends on societies themselves.