46 per cent of all water available in Kazakhstan, which is too much, comes to the country on neighbouring states. Ministry of Water Resources and Irrigation intends to reduce water dependency of the republic on its neighbours by one fourth.
At the end of 2023, Kazakhstan began to construct nine new reservoirs. This work is part of the Comprehensive Plan to Develop Water Industry in the republic for 2024-2030. The key point in the plan is the need to reduce water dependency on neighbouring states. Kazakhstan’s problem is that almost half of all water, i.e. 46 per cent of 102.3 cubic metres, comes to the republic from sources available in neighbouring states. The remaining 54 per cent of water available in Kazakhstan is generated within the country.
CABAR.asia has asked experts if authorities of the republic would be able to accomplish the mission and reduce the dependency by 25 per cent.
Will reservoirs help preserve water?
Kazakhstan faces a serious problem when addressing water issues, i.e. the lack of system analysis, according to Dmitry Kalmykov, hydrogeologist, director of development of Karaganda Region Ecological Museum.
“According to the dependency reduction plan, we are going to build and restore reservoirs. Back in the Soviet period, thousands of them have been built and abandoned, and many of them have fallen into disrepair. Now money is spent to restore the reservoirs. But they were built in a different country, with different conditions. It is not always reasonable to restore reservoirs,” Kalmykov said.
According to him, reservoirs in many countries are being removed because they cause damage in certain conditions. For example, reservoirs increase water loss due to evaporation. If a reservoir is removed, moisture could go underground and recharge groundwater.
Bulat Yesekin, international expert in environmental policy and institutional principles of environment, compares reservoirs and river dams with thrombi in human arteries. Therefore, the world is undergoing the process of liquidation of reservoirs and dams. For example, over 500 of such facilities were destroyed in Europe and United States last year.
“They were built in the years when gigantomania was popular, regardless of negative consequences,” Yesekin said. “Now developed countries restore natural flows of rivers, lakes and wetlands. Natural river regimes are the most reliable basis for long-term water supply of economy and people, recovery of water cycles necessary to conserve the climate.”
Therefore, according to the expert, building reservoirs with a view to reduce dependency on other countries seems an unreliable solution. In a broader perspective and based on the interests of all parties concerned, it can be concluded that it could result in more losses rather than benefits.
“Reservoirs should not be built without assessing their impact on the environment and local people, as required by all international treaties and national laws. The government should listen to scholars and local communities, taking global trends into account,” Yesekin said.
According to Kalmykov, analysis should be performed prior to implementation of any programme.
“However, I cannot see any ‘traces’ of such work. The absence of such a significant factor makes it difficult to solve this time-consuming task, i.e. reduction of dependency on other countries,” the specialist said.
Local solutions
According to Dmitry Kalmykov, it is unlikely to reduce dependency on other countries without drastic measures to save water. Numerous domestic problems should be addressed first.
“Kazakhstan uses water resources inefficiently. In general, Central Asian states are officially listed as the most profligate states, although our region is arid. The state does not promote the culture of preserving natural resources,” the expert said.
“A more efficient use of the resource requires accurate water metering in households,” political analyst Aidar Amrebaev said. “Cost of investment should be gradually included into the tariffs to reduce the financial burden.”
He also suggested taking measures to counter salinization of irrigated areas, including conversion of earth canals into pipeline systems to reduce losses. Moreover, according to Amrebaev, digital technologies must be introduced for optimal use of water resources and for loss reduction.
Our power is in ‘water’ solidarity
According to financial analyst Arman Beisembaev, it seems an unlikely prospect to reduce water dependency on other countries.
“Perhaps, the government has a clever plan we are unaware about,” the expert said. “But the public is unaware of the details and figures of the plan (CABAR.asia has failed to find a comprehensive plan to develop water industry of the Republic of Kazakhstan for 2024-2030; officials call the document either a plan, or a draft plan – Editor’s note).”
Now, according to Beisembaev, it is necessary to unite with neighbouring states.
“According to the UN report published in March 2023, wars are possible in future in the territory of Central Asia because of water. Therefore, it is necessary to make arrangements rather than pretend to be self-sufficient. There is no need to swagger, show one’s importance and greatness, when it comes to the vital resource,” Beisembaev said.
He suggested looking at the situation in terms of economic relations: give the other party what it lacks in exchange for water.
“Kyrgyzstan will give us more water if we give it trade preferences, discounts on oil, gas or other raw materials,” the expert made an example.
Political analyst Aidar Amrebaev reminded that seven out of eight water reservoirs that supply water to Kazakhstan are transboundary ones, and it is vital for the country to coordinate its water policy with neighbours, while it is unacceptable to use a nation-bound segmented approach to water resources.
“The situation with global climate change will lead to water shortage of nearly 12 cubic kilometres per year faced by Central Asia in five years. It will require reduction of water losses by 2.5 per cent a year. According to the EDB’s (Eurasian Development Bank) estimations, water saving in the region should reach 35 per cent by 2035,” the political analyst said.
Bulat Yesekin agrees that neighbouring countries should not seize water from each other, but rather seek options of joint management, which provides more opportunities for more productive use of water and related natural resources.
“’Water diplomacy’ needs a detailed analysis,” Yesekin said. “All options of use of water resources must be worked out: where it is needed the most and where it gives better benefits (for industry, fishery, etc.). On the basis of the above-mentioned, we should create mechanisms of joint management and equitable distribution of risks and benefits.”
According to him, continuation of existing policies (business as usual) will inevitably lead to collapse – new ecological disasters similar to the one that happened to the Aral Sea.
“The same will happen to Lake Balkhash, River Zhaiyk (Ural) and other natural ecosystems that are the key value of Kazakhstan,” Bulat Yesekin said. “We must change our perception of benefits and approaches in order to avoid the growing number of disasters and related forced migration, conflicts and wars.”
Main photo: Tatiana Trubacheva. In the photo: Reservoir in Almaty on the Bolshaya Almatinka River