The documents signed by Central Asian presidents in Cholpon Ata are a significant step toward closer cooperation in the region, according to Umedjon Ibrohimzoda, a political scientist and participant of the school of analytics of CABAR.asia. However, it is important to adhere to the principle of equality and mutually beneficial cooperation in the integration process of Central Asia.
At the first Consultative Meeting of Central Asian Heads of State in 2018, the process of intraregional cooperation was resumed after a decade. The emergence of the format of such meetings is already an indisputable success that has given a new impetus to the development of cooperation between the countries of the region.
The Central Asian countries have already held four Consultative Meetings of Heads of State in Astana (Kazakhstan), Tashkent (Uzbekistan), Turkmenbashi (Turkmenistan), and Cholpon-Ata (Kyrgyzstan).
The fourth Consultative Meeting in Cholpon-Ata where the leaders of the Central Asian countries adopted the long-awaited Roadmap for Regional Cooperation for 2022-2024 and signed (except for Tajikistan and Turkmenistan, which will sign this document after the completion of domestic procedures) the treaty “On Friendship, Good-Neighborliness and Cooperation for the Development of Central Asia in the 21st Century” became a symbolic event.
This treaty is unique and unprecedented in the history of the countries of Central Asia. It contributes to strengthening intra-regional cooperation, increasing the competitiveness of the region as a whole and the countries in particular. This treaty is a significant step towards closer collaboration between the region’s countries.
Key points of the Fourth Consultative Meeting
The Consultative Meeting of the Heads of State in Cholpon-Ata was significant because of the changes in both the intra-regional and global agenda and the developments in the Central Asian countries: the January events in Kazakhstan; the events in Badakhshan and Karakalpakstan; the recent border clashes between Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan; the unstable and uncertain situation in Afghanistan after the coming to power of the Taliban (recognized as terrorist in several CIS and Central Asian countries).
During the meeting, the leaders of the region’s countries expressed their views on how to address the most important challenges of regional cooperation.
Firstly, the President of Tajikistan raised the issue of the negative impact of the processes taking place in Afghanistan on the countries of the region. In this regard, Emomali Rahmon proposed to coordinate joint efforts through special services in order to constantly monitor and create mechanisms for a joint fight against challenges and threats to regional security emanating from this country. Shavkat Mirziyoyev, president of Uzbekistan, made the same proposal.
Secondly, for the joint development of solutions to prevent threats to security, the president of Kazakhstan suggested launching a mechanism of regular consultations of Secretaries of the Security Council and Foreign Ministers at least once every six months to hold meetings in order to develop coherent approaches to the key issues of regional and international issues.
Since geopolitical realities dictate the improvement of joint decision-making mechanisms, this proposal is strategically important in the development of political and diplomatic contacts between the states of the region and will be a serious step toward closer cooperation among all five countries.
Thirdly, there was an initiative to actively introduce new forms and mechanisms to stimulate mutual trade. That is the creation of border trade zones with unified rules and procedures for the delivery of goods.
Note that the increase of mutual trade and expansion of cooperation in different areas corresponds to the theory of integration from the point of view of the functionalism school, according to which cooperation can successfully evolve, flowing from one sphere to another.
At the same time, the proposals of the president of Kazakhstan on the participation of representatives of China and Russia as invited guests, as well as that of the president of Kyrgyzstan on the participation of Azerbaijan in the Consultative Meetings of the Leaders of Central Asian States, were completely inadvisable.
The first statement caused a wave of misunderstanding among experts in the region, who spoke of the needlessness of such an initiative. The Central Asian countries cooperate with Russia and China within regional institutions such as the SCO, the CSTO, and the EAEU, and there is also a C5+1 format with both countries. Therefore, in our view, there is no need to invite representatives of these countries to participate in the Consultative Meetings.
Existing barriers to the (re)institutionalization of Central Asia
Despite certain successes and achievements of the Central Asian countries on the way to regional cooperation, there are still certain problems and barriers that hinder this process. Some of these barriers stem from intra-regional problems between the Central Asian countries, while others are related to external factors that inhibit this integration. The existing barriers can be divided into several issues.
Intra-regional problems between Central Asian countries. These include unresolved border issues in the Fergana Valley in the Tajikistan-Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan-Kyrgyzstan.
- Tension on the border between the countries periodically resumes, which also negatively affects the situation in the region;
- issues of water allocation between upstream and downstream countries;
- issues of joint use of energy resources;
- issues of leadership in the region, that is, which state should and can play the role of “locomotive” in the integration process.
Different approaches during crisis situations. It would seem that such situations should unite the countries of Central Asia. However, as a general rule of thumb, often the positions of state leaders do not converge. For example, Kazakhstan draws one kind of conclusion from the Ukrainian crisis, while Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan, and Uzbekistan draw other conclusions.
And the security threats emanating from Afghanistan after the coming to power of the Taliban terrorist group are perceived differently by Tajikistan and other countries in the region, at least in the public sphere and in the speeches of elites. This situation is also a deterrent to the integration of Central Asian countries.
Fears that the integration of Central Asian states entails negative geopolitical consequences. This notion is unfounded and mythical in its content since even during the first Consultative Meeting of Central Asian States it was clearly and distinctly stated that interaction between the countries of the region is not directed against other countries, but is primarily aimed at deepening cooperation between them and finding ways to solve existing problems. Therefore, it is not advisable to be cautious and weaken the integration process based on illusory perceptions.
Experts also argue that inter-regional organizations such as the SCO and the EAEU hinder the regional integration of Central Asian countries. That is, Russia and China, which have entered into a confrontation with the West, offer Central Asian states their own regional projects, which only separates them from their own integration initiatives. There is also an impression that Central Asian integration in any form cannot take place without the participation of Russia and China.
But this opinion is unfounded due to the fact that the Central Asian regional integration format is not aimed at separating from other supranational structures (including key partners from the SCO and EAEU), but was initiated solely to solve intra-regional problems by their own efforts.
Prospects for integration after the fourth meeting
One of the most significant moments after the fourth meeting was the adoption of the Roadmap for Regional Cooperation for 2022-2024 and the signing of the Treaty on Friendship, Good-Neighborliness, and Cooperation for the Development of Central Asia in the 21st Century. The adoption of this treaty represents the legal formalization of the fundamental areas of cooperation that are included in the integration agenda.
Based on the joint statements as a whole and the speeches of the Central Asian leaders separately, one can put forward the thesis that cooperation itself and further integration are equally important for all Central Asian countries.
At the same time, there is an urgent need to address the issues of water and climate change, which can also be a catalyst for cooperation among Central Asian countries to jointly find ways to solve these problems.
In this regard, it is necessary that the frequency of consultative meetings should not be interrupted, and that extraordinary meetings should be arranged within the framework of this format and gradually transformed into a summit of the heads of state of Central Asia.
There is also an urgent need for joint support from the expert community, the media, and civil society of the countries of the region, so that further cooperation and, ultimately, the integration of Central Asia does not look artificial, but becomes an organic process that has matured over time.
Conclusions and recommendations
Based on all of the above-mentioned prospects and challenges to regional integration in Central Asia, the following generalized conclusions can be drawn:
First, the format of Consultative Meetings of Central Asian Heads of State remains an important platform for enhancing close cooperation, finding ways to solve intraregional problems, and reconciling positions on topical issues of the geopolitical agenda. The countries of the region need to create mechanisms to jointly prevent threats stemming from the activation of terrorist groups in northern Afghanistan and to build a common system of regional security, which in the medium and long term is in the national interests of our countries.
Second, there are still certain problems on the way to (re)institutionalization of the Central Asian countries that hamper the integration process. In this regard, it should be noted that the existing barriers, if the focus is correctly set, may also become a catalyst for regional integration.
Creation of platforms for solving water management problems between upstream and downstream countries, joint consideration of strategies to prevent negative impacts due to climate change, and construction of a platform in the “C5” format to find optimal solutions for cross-border issues may become serious steps and practice for further resolving existing problems through joint efforts.
Third, the participation of Central Asian states in organizations such as the CSTO, SCO, and EAEU shows that the positioning of one or more countries as so-called “big brothers” is not appropriate and reduces the functionality of the supranational structure, as when considering issues of both regional and global agendas, the interests of countries may conflict with each other. Therefore, our states should take this practice into account and adhere to the principle of equality and mutually beneficial cooperation in the process of institutionalizing Central Asia. Because the opposite approach can be fraught with negative consequences and complicate the already difficult integration process.
Finally, in seeking to avoid negative geopolitical consequences, the leaders of the Central Asian region risk falling into a serious trap. The stalling of the integration process and the protracted Consultative Meetings of Central Asian leaders for the foreseeable future could affect the productivity of the meetings, turning them into a primitive discussion platform. Such a trend will ultimately put the ultimate goal of regional integration on hold for the visible future. With this in mind, Central Asian leaders need to show political will and make efforts to accelerate the integration process.