The June analytical articles on Central Asia in foreign media discussed the constitutional reform in Kazakhstan, the investigation into the 2010 ethnic clashes in Kyrgyzstan, the visit of the President of Turkmenistan to Russia, the situation in GBAO, constitutional amendments in Uzbekistan, as well as other important topics in Central Asia at the moment.
Kazakhstan: the constitutional referendum
The main political event of May in Kazakhstan was the referendum for constitutional amendments. Several foreign media outlets wrote about the event. Al-Jazeera and The Guardian report that according to the Central Election Commission, 77.18 percent of votes were in favour of the amendments, with the turnout of 68.06 percent.
One of the main changes that comes with the referendum is that the former president Nursultan Nazarbayev will be deprived of his constitutional title of “elbasy”, or “leader of the nation” – a role that afforded him influence over policymaking regardless of his formal position. Another amendment prevents relatives of the president from holding government positions – a clear nod to the influence of Nazarbayev’s family and in-laws, who lost powerful positions in the aftermath of violent protests in early January. The amendments are also aimed at decentralizing decision-making in the government, as President Tokayev described the snap referendum as a shift from “super-presidential” rule.
Evaluating the effects of the June referendum, an analytical article from The Central Asia-Caucasus Analyst states that although conditions for the reform’s implementation will not be easy given a difficult economic and geopolitical environment, these reforms represent a shift: while earlier reforms sought to build participatory and competitive politics only very slowly at the local level, the current reform package envisages a gradual liberalization of the political system at all levels in order for the system to maintain its legitimacy. The authors, Svante E. Cornell and Albert Barro, argue that while the referendum may easily be dismissed as a foregone conclusion, its purpose is still worthwhile: it seeks to engage Kazakh society in the reform process. The referendum enables each Kazakh citizen the opportunity to form an opinion on the changes that President Tokayev is proposing to the country’s political system. This is in itself an important step that rhymes well with the effort to gradually change the relationship between the state and society in Kazakhstan, the authors point out.
Kazakhstan’s Drone Deal with Turkey Showcases Regional Security Focus
Caspian Policy Center article discusses the Central Asian trend toward strengthening military capabilities in recent years. The article builds upon the recent news that Kazakhstan will collaborate with Turkey to manufacture Anka unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs). Turkish Aerospace Industries (TAI) signed a memorandum of understanding with state-owned Kazakhstan Engineering to transfer technology and establish production at a facility to be developed in Kazakhstan.
According to the author Devon Sealander, sales of Turkish-made drones to Central Asian countries have skyrocketed over the past few years. The tactical abilities of Bayraktar and Anka UAVs proved effective in Syria, Libya, Nagorno-Karabakh, and Ukraine, drawing extensive media attention. Today Uzbekistan is the only Central Asian country that has not obtained Turkish-made drones – the country is focusing on domestic development of military technology, including the Lochin UAV unveiled earlier this year.
The increase in Turkish drone sales takes place amid growing concern over the potential threat of terrorist operations emerging from Afghanistan in the wake of the U.S. military’s withdrawal. While the Central Asian countries have sought stable relations with the Taliban and have taken action to minimize potential humanitarian fallout from collapsing state services in Afghanistan, deteriorating conditions in Afghanistan’s northern regions present a critical threat to all Central Asian countries and underscore the importance of the continuing emphasis on regional security.
However, the article reminds that Russia remains the largest arms supplier to Central Asia. It states that the agreement to produce Turkish Anka drones is the latest example of Kazakhstan’s ongoing commitment to multi-vector diplomatic strategy, as well as a practical decision due to the country’s compliance with western sanctions against Russia’s actions in Ukraine.
Kyrgyzstan: Prosecutors use 2010 ethnic unrest as cudgel against government opponents
As Eurasianet submits, on May 20, the office of the Prosecutor General announced that it was filing a case of abuse of office against three members of a provisional cabinet formed after political unrest toppled the government in April 2010. The spur for the investigation is ostensibly to get to the bottom of the ethnic turmoil in June 2010 that left at least 446 people dead in the southern cities of Osh and Jalal-Abad.
However, according to the article, this might not be a sincere attempt to redress wrongdoings, but the current government’s way to oppress the opposition. Supporters of Keneshbek Dushebayev, a former head of the security services, Ismail Isakov, an ex-defense minister, and Bektur Asanov, once the governor of the southern Jalal-Abad region, all of them critics of the Japarov administration, say the probe is “motivated by revenge.”
Although the bulk of those killed were ethnic Uzbeks, almost nobody has faced prosecution over those deaths. The Kyrgyz government has also provided no compensation for the hundreds of Uzbek homes destroyed during what amounted to pogroms. Aziza Abdyrasulova, a rights activist, noted that less than 2 percent of the more than 5,000 criminal cases opened after the ethnic unrest have been closed to satisfaction. The government would have been better placed expending its resources investigating cases of murder, rape and destruction of property, Abdyrasulova said.
Tajik government crushes restive region amid deep economic and security concerns
An article by Global Voices reports that on June 17, after a month-long violent crackdown against Pamiris in the Gorno-Badakhshan Autonomous Region (GBAO), the Interdepartmental Headquarters for Security and Public Order officially reported that all activities of the “organized terrorist groups” in the region had been put to an end, adding that 220 people were arrested and 16 others, who put up armed resistance, were killed. Previously, on June 12, 2022, Khursand Mazorov and Zoir Rajabov, two prominent informal leaders in GBAO, were killed in the region’s capital Khorog during “a special operation”. The two men depicted in government reports as “leaders of an organized crime group,” were indicted on a variety of charges, including terrorism, murder, drug trafficking, and arms smuggling.
The article argues that the primary goal of the violent suppression in GBAO is the ultimate crackdown on the so-called “informal leaders” of the ethnic Pamiri minority. The informal leaders, sometimes referred to as “authorities”, who participated in the 1992–1997 civil war in Tajikistan on the side of the United Tajik Opposition (UTO) against the forces of the current president Rahmon, were initially integrated into governmental structures following the 1997 peace agreement, receiving important posts in regional police and security bodies. Ever since, however, the president has systematically tried to eliminate political opposition, as he perceived the ex-UTO activists as a direct threat — particularly the members of the Islamic Renaissance Party of Tajikistan (IRPT). Therefore, the GBAO suppression is a continuation of a systematic attempt by President Rahmon to eliminate political rivals, creating, in the meantime, an appearance of peace and national unity, as GBAO became the major obstacle to its realization, the article suggests.
Turkmenistan Issuing Passports to Russian Dual Nationals
RFE/RL’s Turkmen Service reported on June 21 that Turkmenistan’s Migration Service announced that Turkmen citizens who obtained Russian citizenship after 2003 will now be eligible to apply for a Turkmen passport after almost two decades of waiting. A Turkmen-Russian agreement on dual citizenship was signed in 1993. But in April 2003, the agreement was cancelled by Turkmenistan even though the Russian Embassy in Ashgabat continued to issue Russian passports for dual nationals in Turkmenistan. Turkmenistan then forced dual nationals to choose between Turkmen and Russian citizenship and refused to issue Turkmen passports to those who wanted to preserve both nationalities.
The recent changes come after the new President Serdar Berdymukhammedov paid an official visit to Russia in June 10, where he met with Russian leader Vladimir Putin. This was the leader’s first trip abroad since he was inaugurated as head of country in March after his father, Gurbanguly Berdymukhammedov, stepped down.
New President Putting Turkmenistan on The Geopolitical Map
The Eurasia Review article by Dr. Theodore Karasik also touches upon the visit of the President Serdar Berdymukhammedov to Russia and argues that the country is increasingly becoming a transit point for a significant series of relationships between Moscow and Tehran. According to Dr. Karasik, Serdar Berdymukhammedov made his first foreign trips to Russia and Iran since he replaced his father as a new dynamic emerging that is important for logistics and near-term economic cooperation between Ashgabat’s two main partner countries.
During his visit to Russia, Serdar Berdymukhammedov received the Order of Friendship from Russian President Vladimir Putin and signed 15 cooperation documents along with a declaration expanding the countries’ strategic partnership. Dr. Karasik points out that Turkmenistan argued for bilateral and five-party cooperation to make arrangements for a summit meeting of the Caspian Sea states in Ashgabat. Similarly, Berdymukhamedov’s visit to Iran resulted in agreements focusing on growth in bilateral relations and logistics. One beneficial outcome of the talks was the establishment of the joint Tehran-Ashgabat Trade Center as part of the preferential trade agreement between the two countries. Dr. Karasik also mentions several other countries such as India, Kazakhstan, Pakistan, and Turkey that are key to the transit lines of Turkmenistan’s new hub-like status.
The article argues that on top of Russia and Iran that are the key Turkmen partners, the new Turkmen president is planning more international travel to beef up his country’s new-found importance as a logistics hub and gas producer. The article concludes that Russia’s invasion of Ukraine might actually be benefiting the development of these new transit ties — a fact that puts the Turkmen leader and his partners within the scope of possible Western sanctions.
World’s Dirtiest Oil and Gas Fields Are in Russia, Turkmenistan and Texas
Turkmenistan was mentioned in a report by Bloomberg stating that oil and natural gas fields in Russia, Turkmenistan, and Texas are the most climate-damaging on Earth. An analysis by the nonprofit Rocky Mountain Institute looked at greenhouse-gas emissions across entire supply chains and found that they vary widely. Based on the ranking, Turkmenistan’s South Caspian basin has the second biggest footprint across its supply chain. The initiative draws on years of research by academics and nonprofit institutions, public data and satellite images. The article highlights that oil and gas prices have surged after demand rebounded from the Covid-19 pandemic and due to dislocations caused by Russia’s war on Ukraine. Despite growth in renewable power generation, global reliance on fossil fuels is poised to grow before tapering amid a transition to alternatives like wind and solar.
President of Uzbekistan explained the need for constitutional reform – CERR experts conducted a linguistic analysis of the president’s speech
EU Reporter wrote about a linguistic analysis made by the Center for Economic Research and Reforms (CERR) of the speech of the President Shavkat Mirziyoyev at a meeting with members of the Constitutional Commission, which was held on 20 June. Using a cloud of words, analysts determined what the Head of State focused on the most.
The results of the analysis, from the original language, showed that in total, the President used 5,674 words in his speech, the most used of which were “constitution” – 106 times, “state” – 75 times, “person” – 54 times, “rights” – 42 times. Words such as “citizen”, “law”, “proposal”, “new” and “life” have been used more than 30 times. The words “society”, “durable”, “reform”, “family”, “Uzbekistan”, “free”, “social” were used more than 20 times.
The article reports that a draft constitutional law on amendments to the Constitution was published in Uzbek and Russian on June 25 for public discussion. Citizens can send comments and observations. The discussion will end on July 4, after which the bill will be put to a referendum. At the moment, the text of the bill contains over 170 amendments to 66 articles of the Basic Law.
Uzbekistan: A possible change in the status of Karakalpakstan has become a political “bomb”
On June 29, before the mass protests in Karakalpakstan against the changes in the status of the country took place, Analytical Center for Central Asia has written that it has become a political “bomb” for Uzbekistan’s government. “The desire to provide Mirziyoyev with eternal political life didn’t cause much surprise after the similar tricks of the late President Karimov, but the destruction of the sovereignty of Karakalpakstan is very similar to a provocation by the authorities to consolidate the positions of the main ethnic group of the country – the Uzbeks,” the ACCA expert believes.
The article shows that political activists and journalists did not believe that reforms taking away Karakalpaktan’s right to independence were going to take place. Murat Ubbiniyazov, a human rights activist from Nukus, referred to Article 1 of the International Covenant on Civil and Political Rights, to which Uzbekistan is a member, in which there is a provision: ‘Every person has the right to self-determination’. “It’s unlikely that Uzbekistan wants to disrupt the current good relations with the world community, which were achieved with great difficulty,” the activist is convinced.
The activist stated that all changes to the Constitution had a specific goal – to increase the term of the presidency and reset the presidency and believed that the President or his press service would make a statement that the changes regarding the Republic of Karakalpakstan were illegal and cancel these changes, which would boost the support of the electorate in Karakalpakstan and help the president to stay in power.
The article also informed that several Uzbek media outlets were forced to remove articles on the amendments to the constitution, and other outlets reposted the deleted publications showing journalistic solidarity. The information center “Shirak”, whose functionaries are abroad, has distributed an open letter to the activists. It speaks of a criminal conspiracy between the leadership of Karakalpakstan and the authorities of Uzbekistan. “If earlier separatist sentiments in Karakalpak society were somehow extinguished, now official Tashkent has done everything to give impetus to their spread,” the ACCA expert sums up.
Central Asian Countries Left with the Burden of Keeping Afghanistan’s Lights On
Afghanistan is unable to pay its electricity bill to its northern neighbors and both Tajikistan and Uzbekistan are beginning to feel the pinch, as discussed by the Caspian Policy Center.
The article states that since the Taliban seized control of the country last summer, millions of Afghans have struggled to survive. Thousands of civil servants fled the country in the initial takeover, forcing the Taliban to fill these vacancies with unskilled bureaucrats or Taliban fighters who have proven to be incapable of managing the growing crisis. Furthermore, international sanctions imposed against the Taliban regime have frozen Afghanistan’s economy. Even though nonprofit organizations are permitted to operate within the country, many are wary to do so out of concern of violating U.S. sanctions.
Afghanistan imports about 78 percent of its electricity from neighboring Iran, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan for approximately $220 million annually. The large dependence on imports has forced the Taliban leadership to ask these suppliers to keep exporting electricity despite unpaid bills. So far, Afghanistan’s neighbors have kept the lights on. Uzbekistan is contracted to supply two billion kWh of power and Tajikistan will provide 1.5 billion kWh of power to Afghanistan in 2022, valued at $100 million and $69 million respectively. It is unclear, though, how Afghanistan plans to pay. In January and February, DABS did pay Tajikistan $6 million out of its $33 million debt to the country. Still, that payment is only a fraction of the Taliban’s growing debt.
Central Asian countries could halt electricity exports to Afghanistan. However, the United Nations Development Program has warned that any blockage of electricity supplies could mean no power for 10 million Afghans, exacerbating an already serious humanitarian crisis. Moreover, electricity shortages could fuel terrorist activity in Afghanistan, including the extremist and anti-Taliban group, the Islamic State of Khorasan Province (ISKP), which has threatened Central Asian states as well as the new rulers in Kabul. Central Asian countries could also face a flood of refugees from Afghanistan if the power goes out.
The situation means Iran and Central Asian countries are forced to supply Afghanistan with electricity to deter humanitarian and security crises, all the while Afghanistan unsuccessfully searches for ways to pay off its debt.
The nexus of environmental issues, poverty, and political authoritarianism in Central Asia: What role for civil society organisations and the international community?
International Partnership for Human Rights (IPHR) published a report on environmental and climate change challenges in Central Asia. The report states that the effects of climate change are expected to significantly worsen in Central Asia over the next decade. Floods, drought and landslides caused by temperature increases and the melting of Himalayan glaciers will constitute major threats to human security in the region.
According to the report, there are several factors specific to Central Asian history and current situation, which, if not addressed, will continue to impact the wellbeing and security of populations in the region. The factors include the Soviet legacy of poor ecological policies, difficult socio-economic situation, and poor governance. Among the legacy of Soviet environmental policy, the report addresses the nuclear tests sites in Northern Kazakhstan and drying up of the Aral Sea, as well as nuclear pollution from the exploitation of uranium deposits initiated under the Soviet regime in all Central Asian countries except Turkmenistan. Hazardous industrial waste sites remain in dire need of major investment and long-term solutions. Similarly, air pollution is a systemic problem in several major cities across Central Asia. Desertification and soil degradation are also important ecological problems in Central Asia.
The report then discussed the impacts of these environmental problems on the region’s population health and food security. The report informs that rising temperatures, risks associated with energy insecurity and the lack of drinking water have increased health risks, especially for pregnant women and the elderly. The report also gives overview of government responses to environmental challenges. It states that all Central Asian governments have struggled to find coherent and effective environmental policies and, more importantly, the political will to fully implement them. Many local environmentalists lament that environmental policies mostly remain part of governmental public relations strategies. The resulting highly visible projects often do not address the most pressing environmental issues or themselves cause collateral environmental concerns that the authorities cover up.
The reports concludes with a series of recommendations on how the international community, including governments, international organisations, and international NGOs, can contribute to addressing environmental issues, including through increased support to local stakeholders and CSOs.
Top UN Official Should Focus on Rights in Central Asia
Hugh Williamson, Human Rights Watch’s director of the Europe & Central Asia division, wrote an article-recommendation ahead of UN Deputy Secretary-General Amina Mohammed’s visit to Central Asia on June 6-12. Williamson highlighted that there are serious human rights concerns across the region, including killings of civilians by security forces, detention of human rights activists and journalists, limits on free speech and freedom of assembly, and restrictions on women’s rights and those of minority groups.
He described what each Central Asian county’s agenda should include in terms of human rights protection. As such, in Tajikistan, the Deputy Secretary-General should urge the government to investigate police use of force leading to the deaths of civilians in May following protests in the Gorno-Badakhshan autonomous region. The article referred to the case of Ulfatkhonim Mamadshoeva, 65, a respected female journalist and activist, who was detained in mid-May for allegedly fermenting the Gorno-Badakhshan protests, despite no credible evidence being provided. Meanwhile, Kazakhstan’s government has yet to establish an independent inquiry into the January deaths of over 230 people following protests and unrest in Almaty and elsewhere. Ms. Mohammed should likewise urge Serdar Berdimuhamedov, the new president of Turkmenistan, to correct the country’s catastrophic human rights record and allow citizens to enjoy basic freedoms. In Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan, the Deputy Secretary should address registration of civil society groups and signal support for embattled independent media organizations, the article urges.