“Close cooperation within the framework of the OTS will enable the countries of the Central Asian region to have alternative platforms, partial balancing of the influence of Russia and China with the help of Turkey,” political scientists Gulnor Dzhumaeva and Abbos Bobokhonov note in an article specifically for CABAR.asia.
The current geopolitical tension and the resulting turbulence in world politics create objective conditions for the growing importance of non-politicized and non-military organizations. Under these conditions, the Organization of Turkic States (OTS), whose priorities are to strengthen economic and cultural interaction, the construction of new alternative routes that contribute to the strengthening of transport and communication interconnectedness, began to attract the attention of not only the Central Asian states, but also other actors in the region – the PRC and the Russian Federation.
Until today, the OTS has gone through several difficult stages of development and has gained historical experience that allows member countries to adjust their initial priorities, aimed more at solving economic, transport, cultural and humanitarian issues than political ones. Today, the OTS is becoming more and more attractive, and various countries are seeking to either join it or take part in its activities. As of the end of July 2022, 15 countries have declared their interest in joining the organization as observers. Among the important factors of status values, experts point to: openness in cooperation with other organizations and countries; high level of bilateral relations between the participating countries; no political controversy.
Interests of the Central Asian countries within the framework of the OTS
Today OTS, covering over 173 million inhabitants, is a large market, the total GDP of member states and observers is about 1.4 trillion USD [1]. The share of the total GDP of OTS members in the world GDP is about 1.4%, and according to PPP – about 4.5 trillion USD. (3% of the world).
It should be noted that Turkey is actively strengthening bilateral ties with all the countries of Central Asia, as a result of which there is a rapid growth in trade. Turkey has a positive trade balance with the region; it has a negative trade balance only with Kazakhstan. Even the pandemic has not affected Turkey’s exports to the region.
Despite the absence of common borders with Central Asia, Turkey is becoming one of the region’s most important trade partners. It has substantially increased its exports and purchased more goods from Central Asia, and has successfully diversified transportation routes to reduce dependence on individual transit countries, as many of them compete with it for the regional market. Trade with Turkey is also beneficial for Central Asia as Turkey is a growing market. Thus, the countries of the region consider Turkey as one of the alternatives for export diversification.
Close cooperation within the framework of the OTS will enable the countries of the Central Asian region to have alternative platforms, partial balancing of the influence of Russia and China with the help of Turkey. This assumption is supported by the fact that in recent years the rapid growth of Turkey’s economic and investment presence in the region has contributed to Ankara’s significant strengthening of its position and entry into the top five leading trading partners. In addition, Turkish companies are active players in the market, especially in Uzbekistan. In 2022, Turkey overtook China in terms of the number of companies in the country (2,204 vs. 2,141 respectively).
These facts are very significant both for Central Asia and the world economy, and as cooperation between the states of the Turkic world develops, this significance will increase. The interweaving of economies through the active use of the business communities of the Central Asian countries, Azerbaijan, Turkey and Hungary will become the engine of regional cooperation. Experts believe that closer interaction within the OTS can accelerate regional cooperation within Central Asia so as not to get stuck in the raw material peripheral zone of world economic processes. The core of this cooperation could be the interaction of two large states of the region – Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan. The signing of the treaty on allied relations (December 22, 2022) between these countries clearly illustrates the intentions of the two countries.
Projects within the OTS
In the structure of the OTS, there are various formats of interaction designed to promote small and medium-sized businesses and the development of trade between member states, such as the Turkic Chamber of Commerce and Industry, the Investment Fund, and issues of creating a Development Bank are being worked out. The Turkic Investment Fund, created within the framework of the Samarkand Summit, is aimed at mobilizing the economic potential of the OTS members and helping the Central Asian countries to diversify their sources of funding. Along with trade and economic cooperation and the intensification of investment cooperation, the following priority areas are considered.
Territorial and transit-transport potential. The OTS countries geographically represent a vast region from Europe (Turkey, Hungary), the Caucasus (Azerbaijan), the Central Asian countries (Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan) to the borders of the PRC, the countries of South and South-West Asia and cover an area of 4.242.362 sq. km in total. These parameters indicate the possibility of connecting via transport routes two large continents – Asia and Europe – along the shortest route. The blocking of transport arteries passing through the territories of Russia, Belarus and Ukraine, against the backdrop of the European-Russian crisis, necessitated considering the OTS as a “key factor” in establishing alternative transport and communication routes passing through Central Asia and the Caucasus with access to the Middle East and Europe.
The construction of transport communications both within the Central Asian region and through it will not only make it possible to lay a short and convenient route to enter various markets, but also contribute to an increase in economic exchanges and an increase in trade between China, Central Asia, the Caucasus, and Turkey. These measures will also enable deeper integration of the region’s countries into global commodity supply chains.
Energy cooperation. Turkey intends to develop cooperation within the framework of the OTS in the field of energy in order to diversify energy resources and ensure energy security. Today, when world powers are fighting for possession of the world’s resources and its strategic reserves, the unification of energy-rich states is of strategic importance for global development. The OTS states have energy resources, developed industry, have large reserves of various types of raw materials, non-ferrous metals, etc. (in terms of natural gas reserves, Turkmenistan ranks 4th in the world, Azerbaijan 17th, Kazakhstan 19th, Uzbekistan 22nd , in terms of oil reserves, Kazakhstan ranks 11th, Azerbaijan – 20th).
National and Cultural Identity. The Turkic countries have an interest in turning the OTS into a “Turkic factor” capable of influencing international relations. Active interaction within the framework of the Organization will make it possible to use the financial, economic, investment, scientific, technical and technological potential of Turkey, which will balance the financial pressure of other investors on the participating countries, and will also help to diversify foreign policy partners.
The humanitarian nature of the organization is increasingly attracting the participating countries, which in the future will serve as the basis for effective interaction both in economic and political terms, experts say [1].
Moreover, the Organization’s putting forward a new non-politically motivated foreign policy agenda makes it possible to become an attractive factor in current international politics. Therefore, among the expert and academic community, the concept of a “new style of diplomacy” appears, meaning the promotion not of the military force of Turkey, but of its “economic, humanitarian and technical power”, including using the OTS platform.
At the same time, it is expected that Hungary’s participation in this organization will play a special role in the development of relations with European countries and organizations of the European continent. In particular, in October 2019 in Baku, at the 7th OTS summit, V. Orban called for considering Hungary as a door to Europe for the peoples of the Turkic world. In this respect, Hungary’s proposal to organize a joint summit of the heads of state of the OTS and the Visegrad Group (V4) during the period of Budapest’s chairmanship in this Organization [4] is especially attractive.
Hungary positions itself as an active supporter of the development of this multilateral format, taking into account the cultural and historical ties between the Hungarian and Turkic peoples. Deep historical ties and common values of the Turkic peoples are a solid foundation for expanding and strengthening friendly relations within the framework of the Organization.
In 2019, Hungary initiated the opening of European Office of the Organization in Budapest, designed to become a conductor of OTS interests in European organizations, and assumed all the costs associated with its operation. Moreover, there is an intensification of ties with the Central Asian countries, especially with Uzbekistan, as evidenced by the exchange of visits at the highest and high levels, shows the desire of Hungary to open the Central Asian market for itself.
Restraining factors and OTS
Today, the economies of the OTS countries are facing serious risks, including economic ones, which are directly related to tougher anti-Russian sanctions and the financial and economic isolation of Russia, which already creates a large number of economic, financial and social problems for the countries of Central Asia. The protracted “special military operation” in Ukraine and, apparently, the long isolation of Russia leads to its financial and economic weakening in the post-Soviet space, creating a power vacuum that China will try to fill, which also has serious risks for Central Asia.
Meanwhile, one of the foundations of Central Asia’s security should be the preservation of the geopolitical balance of power in the region. The strengthening of Ankara’s role in the region as a larger and more developed member of the Organization worries Beijing and Moscow to a certain extent for several reasons: firstly, they consider the Central Asian region a zone of their special interests and do not accept the emergence of a different competitive regional structure; secondly , in the context of the unification of the Turkic peoples living in the vast expanse of Eurasia, the promotion of a Turkic identity will challenge the national interests of China and Russia; thirdly, economic integration within the OTS is of concern to Beijing and Moscow, who view it as a threat to the OBOR and the EAEU, which hinders the achievement of their stated goals – the full integration of the Central Asian countries into their projects. Meanwhile, the development of OTS is not aimed at opposing the interests of other international organizations [5], but at creating a healthy competitive atmosphere.
Despite many similar characteristics that make it possible to consider Central Asia as a single macro-region, the trajectories and level of economic, technical and technological development of the countries of the region differ, which to a certain extent may hinder the dynamic growth and strengthening of the Organization. Forcing economic ties not only within the region, but also with developed countries, such as Turkey, could contribute to a more balanced development of the OTS.
In these recent times, the illusory threat of Pan-Turkism has been actively spreading in the media, which, according to the already established opinion of some experts and journalists, serves the purpose of establishing Turkey’s political leadership among all Turkic peoples. However, despite various opinions and discussions about the alleged dominance of Turkish interests in the OTS, an analysis of the activities and agenda of the Organization allows us to conclude that Ankara occupies a rather constructive position within the Organization. There have been no attempts (at least so far) to impose their initiatives or ideas on the participating countries, even though Turkey is the largest contributor to the OTS.
In shaping the agenda of the Organization, especially in matters of further integration of the Turkic world, Ankara takes a moderate position, so that, on the one hand, it does not induce the rest of the Turkic countries to be excessively cautious in building their relations with Turkey, and on the other hand, not cause unreasonable irritation among major players interested in maintaining and expanding their presence in the region. In particular, within the framework of Turkey’s chairmanship of the OTS (2021), official Ankara has not put forward significant initiatives that could demonstrate its desire to dominate the Turkic world.
Official Ankara emphasizes that strengthening the solidarity of the Turkic world is one of Turkey’s priorities, and it is interested in further developing and expanding the role of the OTS as an effective platform for interaction between the Turkic states. At the same time, decisions in this Organization are made by consensus. Thus, at the Samarkand summit, the issue of accepting Northern Cyprus (TRNC) as a member of the Organization remained open due to the position of the Central Asian countries, which do not recognize the legitimacy of the TRNC government.
Turkish experts believe that despite Turkey’s renewed interest in the region and new institutional mechanisms aimed at deep strategic cooperation, Ankara’s influence in Central Asia is limited. As stated, “unlike in the 1990s, Turkey no longer seeks an active leadership role in the post-Soviet space,” where it “gradually but decisively realized the limits of its political and economic influence [2]. Turkey is now guided by pragmatism, rather than ideological considerations, in relation to the OTS” [3].
The Turkish side is interested in the implementation of pragmatic initiatives and projects that meet the interests of all member states within the framework of the OTS. At the same time, the common strategic interests of the OTS participants coincide, although there is natural competition between the countries to become a key transit artery passing through their territories. The absence of railways independent of the PRC and the Russian Federation significantly complicates the transportation of heavy and oversized cargo. Therefore, within the framework of transport development projects, Uzbekistan is interested in building the China-Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan railway, the launch of which should significantly reduce the transit flow through Kazakhstan. The adoption of consolidated decisions on such issues would determine the further development of the transport and transit potential of the countries of the Organization.
An important factor in strengthening trade and economic integration between countries and acquiring reliable, alternative markets for the mutual exchange of goods of the OTS countries can also be the creation of a free trade zone (FTA). However, given the entry of several members of the organization into the EurAsEC, the creation of a full-fledged FTA and the achievement of full integration of the economies of the member countries seems difficult.
At this stage, the countries participating in the OTS are cautious and remain committed to a moderate level of cooperation in the military sphere. At the same time, the relative intensity of military-political visits between Turkey and the Central Asian countries observed in 2022 is determined, as observed in the media, by the intensification of the discussion of security issues at the bilateral level, and not by introducing this agenda into the OTS.
Conclusion
OTS has every opportunity to become one of the leading platforms not only in the Central Asian region, but throughout the Eurasian space:
Firstly, the OTS is an established, stable integration structure, in the development prospects of which not only member-states and observer countries, but also the entire Turkic world are interested. In the current conditions of geopolitical and geo-economic uncertainty, the development of OTS is an objective necessity.
Secondly, the prospects for the Organization of Turkic States are quite stable and “the OTS members are committed to the norms and principles of international law, including sovereign equality, territorial integrity and inviolability of internationally recognized borders and states.” At this stage, the OTS member countries are positioning this structure outside of security issues, since in the current unpredictable conditions they are aware of the serious consequences of giving the Organization such a character of interaction.
Thirdly, in the long term, the OTS becomes a sub-regional association and a kind of mechanism for regional cooperation in the vast space between Europe, the Middle East, the Caucasus and Central Asia. At the same time, the prospects for the development of the OTS as a subregional platform will largely depend on the specifics of Turkey’s future positioning within the Organization.
Fourthly, for full-fledged coexistence within the framework of the Organization and its effective functioning, it is also very important to preserve the commonality of views and interests of the member countries of the Organization in economic, cultural, technological development, and in ensuring security.
Thus, the OTS can become a promising mechanism for building new regional and global landscapes with their new institutions and new understanding of the nature of relationships between countries.
Reference
- Sarimsokov Z. The Turkic factor in Turkey’s soft power policy in relations with the countries of Central Asia // Post-Soviet Studies. 2020. No. 7. S . 613.
- Köstem S. Geopolitics, Identity and beyond: Turkey’s Renewed Interest in the Caucasus and Central Asia \ Turkey’s Pivot to Eurasia: Geopolitics and Foreign Policy in a Changing World Order \ ed. by E. Erşen, S. Köstem. London: Routledge, 2019. pp. 111-128.
- Erşen E. (2022). Turkey and the Eurasian integration: Ideology or pragmatism? Vestnik RUDN. International Relations, 22(1), pp. 111-125.
- Mustofaev M. The Organization of Turkic States: A New Approach to Global and Regional Challenges. PERCEPTIONS, Spring-Summer 2022 Volume XXVII Number 1, p.110.
- Çağla Gül YESEVİ. Examining the Organization of Turkic States: A Teacher and Norm-Creator. PERCEPTIONS, Spring-Summer 2022 Volume XXVII Number 1, p.2-25.