Food security has almost always been one of the main narratives of the Turkmen authorities, but the authorities have meant different things by it during the period of independence of Turkmenistan.
Speaking of food security, we should acknowledge that the authorities of Turkmenistan do not stray from their principles of hiding of public information. There are no absolute values of food production and its imports from other countries publicly available. There are only facts of increase in output of given products in percentage compared to last periods and facts of talks or actual procurements of food products in open access, yet no details are provided.
It is known from the session of the cabinet of ministers as of April 8, 2022 that the president ordered to increase planting and harvesting of potato and cereal crops, as well as the cattle number. And specialised ministers gave summaries of their successes, but were immediately reprimanded, including the minister of agriculture and vice prime minister.
Because of the launched military operations in Ukraine, sanctions against Russia, as well as countersanctions and restrictions imposed by the government of Russia on exports of a set of commodities, including the ban on export of cereal crops and products, as well as vegetable oil, Turkmenistan faced a kind of panic buying, which did not lead to any consequences, though. No deficit occurred comparing to previous periods, and it ended with rumours only.
According to the latest report of the Asian Development Bank as of April 2022, based on its own studies, imports from Russia in Turkmenistan amount to 20 per cent, although the proportion of food products remains unknown.
However, the recent visit of the government delegation of Russia led by deputy chair of the government Aleksei Overchuk reduced the anxiety of local observers even more due to possible reduction of imported food products from Russia. Governors of Astrakhan and Chelyabinsk oblasts of Russia who came in the delegation offered to the Turkmen party to develop logistics networks, supplies of industrial equipment, as well as wide range of agricultural products – flour and flour products, cereals, as well as vegetable oil.
Taking into account the fact that Turkmenistan has positive balance of trade with Russia and, as mentioned in the above ABD report, has no external debt to Russia, there are no crucial obstacles to supplying food products from there.
After all pandemic-caused restrictions to movement of freight transport were lifted, the market of Turkmenistan was again filled with particular categories of commodities from Iran – vegetables, fruits, rice, traditional sweets, dairy products, and even flowers – which return to the same price and quality niche they have occupied for many years.
In the same report, ADB stated that Turkmenistan and Ukraine have a low level of trade turnover and apparently it is now suspended, which will not affect the deficit as minor class of Ukrainian goods can be easily replaced by other suppliers.
Moreover, according to the report, amid the change in the hydrocarbon market, Turkmenistan can derive benefit upon resolving logistical challenges of supplying its hydrocarbons to global markets and clearing up the pricing process with traditional buyers.
Given the relatively small population estimated as 5.5-6 million people by the authorities, although alternative sources say about 2.7-3.2 million, the main risks of food security for the people of Turkmenistan are not the volatile external markets, but they depend on qualified decisions made by the Turkmen government and top ranking officials.
Thorny way of food sovereignty
After the collapse of the USSR and disruptions of many product supply chains, the authorities have mainly attempted to avoid hunger. Back those days, President Niyazov’s political doctrine “10 years of wellbeing” was announced. Very soon, it was renamed as “10 years of stability”, which was in fact an option of a social contract “bread in exchange for loyalty.”
In fact, the authorities combined all resources, and managed to ensure that people are half-starving, thus avoiding the real hunger and social explosion. Since then, the word “ration”, a minimum pack of products sold to population at fixed prices that were subsidised by the state and whose remnants still exist, has come into general use.
However, afterwards the denotation of “food security” began to change and the authorities placed an emphasis on “food sovereignty” and put all resources to increase domestic food production. Of course, some absurd things happened too. When programmes on domestic sugar production and sugar beet cropping were undergoing approval procedures, attempts were made to grow coffee and other exotic plants. Nevertheless, the authorities resolved the hunger issue, yet failed to resolve the issue of full saturation of the market with quality and diverse products.
The main reason was that the authorities did not allow developing a full-fledged market of agricultural products production. Farms opened in former collective farms and state farms remained in the monopoly of the state in land and water. The authorities ordering and building public contract for cropping of cultures, and placing a priority on cropping cotton and grain, never let the domestic market develop.
All purchasing prices have been and are still determined by the state. Almost all crops were seized by force (and are still seized), whereas harvesting campaigns turned into “battle for crops” with participation of all security agencies – to prevent theft of grain by farmers.
It should be noted that in addition to organisational issues, grain crop yield depends on geographical conditions – Turkmenistan is situated in the area of so-called “risky crop farming”. It means that dry and irrigated cropping is strictly regulated by precipitation depth and amount of irrigation water. Moreover, edaphic-climatic conditions in most areas of Turkmenistan do not allow cropping durum wheat that contains sufficient amount of gluten and that is used to produce high grade and first grade flour.
However, the authorities have been turning a blind eye on the quality of grain for a long time by ensuring gross grain production and reducing foreign purchases of grain and high quality flour for food. Flour produced from local grain is currently the basis of food for the people. It is used for to bake “social bread” and is a part of “rations” sold by the state at fixed prices. However, its volumes are so insufficient that cheap products are not available to all.
It is fair to say that high quality flour is available for sale. Usually, such flour and its products are made in Kazakhstan and Russia, as well as in Turkey. However, this category of food products is sold without any subsidies and is unaffordable to the majority of people.
Almost the same situation is with vegetable oil. Traditional and common for people cottonseed oil is of low quality and its production is seasonal, while its reserves are not enough for the year. The minimum quantity of imported oil, mainly of Russian production, is subsidised by the state and is affordable to people, while it is more expensive on the “open market.”
The category of subsidised products includes sugar, eggs and chicken legs of both foreign and local production, which are called “Bush legs” as before.
Highly classified statistics
However, all these estimates are only approximate and are based on visual estimation and experience of personal consumption. No one knows the real picture. The authorities of Turkmenistan in fact conceal all statistical data and almost never publish absolute production figures, citing only relative indications of increases in production compared to the previous period.
The state budget of Turkmenistan contains some absolute figures, but even its official version published for the society contains four pages without any details by sectors and regions. All other statistical data are highly classified.
In its annual global economic outlook, the World Bank refuses to include Turkmenistan (and Venezuela) into its reviews for the second year in a row. Their reasons are so eloquent that they should be cited in full:
In September 2021, the mission of the International Monetary Fund working in Turkmenistan to assess the economy made a statement:
The UK Foreign Office was more specific in the economic factsheet of various world countries:
And here is the quotation of the press release of the European
Union mission after the talks with the authorities of Turkmenistan (October 2021):In fact, leading global financial institutions and foreign partners of Turkmenistan based on comparisons of their own analytical materials and statistical data submitted by the country state that the economy of Turkmenistan is a “black hole.” But in public they just diplomatically refuse to deal with the statistics of Turkmenistan.
What else can be said if the results of the population and housing census held in 2012 were classified immediately by the authorities and all information about the population size of Turkmenistan are mere guesses and speculations. It’s even worse with the sociology. The only known opinion poll in Turkmenistan was launched by a foreign telecommunication company particularly to improve the quality of service and within their competence. This company does not work in the country anymore and lost all of its business.