In early 2022, President Kasym-Zhomart Tokayev started to change the personnel policy in Kazakhstan. According to experts, the rate of political system transformation in Kazakhstan will remain high until the end of this year. Or maybe until the end of the second presidential term.
Amid the January 2022 protests in Kazakhstan, President Kasym-Zhomart Tokayev started purge of staff. First, the head of state said about the dismissal of Prime Minister Askar Mamin and blamed the government for protests.
A few days later, Tokayev approved the new cabinet of ministers led by Alikhan Smailov without the supporters of his predecessor. Afterwards, he reached the relatives of ex-president Nursultan Nazarbayev.
This is proven by the unexplainable dismissal of Nazarbayev’s sons-in-law. On January 15, it became known that the powers of the chair of the board of Kaztransgaz National Company, Kairat Sharipbaev, who is “called” the second spouse of the eldest daughter of the first president, Dariga Nazarbayeva, were terminated, yet the marriage was not formally confirmed. It was also reported that the authorities of the Director General of KazTransOil, Dimash Dosanov, the spouse of younger daughter Aliya Nazarbayev.
On January 17, the first deputy chair of the National Security Committee of Republic of Kazakhstan, Samat Abish, nephew of Nursultan Nazarbayev, was relieved of his office. On the same day, Timur Kulibaev, spouse of the first president’s middle daughter Dinara Kulibaeva, said about his resignation from the post of the chair of presidium of Atameken National Chamber of Entrepreneurs.
Differences between staff policies
The policies of Tokayev and Nazarbayev are quite different, said Urazgali Selteyev, political analyst and director of the Eurasian Integration Institute. According to him, the first president has played the role of the mediator between people holding important executive positions, and this head of state needs to gather around himself a unified solid team and his strategy is to wait rather than to “act straightforwardly.”
“Nazarbayev has always tried to build an internal balance between officials that are equal in their political weight, in other words, he was creating a kind of an internal competitive environment. […] For Tokayev it is important now, after he has gained absolute power, to have key managerial officials work over common tasks and to provide healthy competition within the government machine in terms of ideas and offers,” Selteyev said to CABAR.asia.
According to him, staff reshuffle will continue in the country. Akims of regions will be changed, new parties will possibly emerge on the political arena.
“I think new parties will be registered, direct election of akims in districts and cities will be introduced sooner, and political life will revive in earnest. I suggest that in the beginning of next year, we will have early elections of deputies to Mazhilis of parliament and maslikhats,” Selteyev said.
Freelance political analyst Maksim Kaznacheyev said that the political system of Kazakhstan is only starting to redevelop in early 2022, which will continue to the end of the year.
“I proceed from the premise that the pace of political system transformation will remain very high until the end of the year. Moreover, President Tokayev has voiced the new package of political reforms by September,” the expert said.
Own team after a few years of waiting
According to Urazgali Selteyev, before Tokayev became the chair of the Security Council and chair of Nur Otan party in January 2022, he had to get approvals of political personnel from first president Nursultan Nazarbayev, which had its impact on the quality and progress of tasks implemented across the country.
“However, it does not mean that there was some diarchy in the country, as some experts try to show. From the outset, Tokayev has set the right path for social and economic reforms. But they confronted the interests of intra-elite groups. Therefore, important initiatives were hindered in the first years of his presidency,” Selteyev said.
Also, the political analyst emphasised that after the speech of the head of state at the session of the lower house of parliament on January 11, Kazakhstanis were expecting full change and renewal of political officials, but almost the same people remained in the system.
“The country does not have a real strong opposition, at least in terms of “alternative backup,” which it could suggest for executive positions. Therefore, the president has to look for new personnel inside the system – in the third, fourth echelons. However, it is highly questionable whether the new appointees will meet the required level of managerial qualities and competencies. At least, president gives them a chance to approve themselves,” Selteyev said.
Maksim Kaznacheyev said that the people linked to Nazarbayev will be in Tokayev’s team as the president has a “low bench strength.”
“Kasym-Zhomart Tokayev will be considering the people of Nazarbayev as interim candidates. The president will proceed on how they would show their personal loyalty. Only in this case will he make decision on keeping the former officials at their posts. There are virtually no people out of the system in the halls of power,” he said.
Final point and further prospects
According to Urazgali Selteyev, Nazarbayev’s return to power is out of question. The parliament has already approved key amendments to the legislation, which nullified the life chairmanship of the first president in the Assembly of People of Kazakhstan and Security Council. They also removed the need to have strategic issues in domestic and foreign policy approved by him.
“This is the final point. The country has faced a kind of depersonalisation of the presidency. Everyone should understand that we will no longer have the same president for over ten years,” Selteyev said.
The political analyst also sees the possibility of society and the political system transformation among future prospects. Moreover, in the interview with Khabar 24 TV channel, Tokayev slightly indicated his intention to run for a second term and in this case, he will remain president until 2029.
“Now his creditworthiness is rather high. I think that the second president’s mission is to create healthy and fair rules for the state and society functioning. But if he leaves these issues for the generations to come, we will sink into whirlpool of clan wars,” Selteyev said.