Construction of nuclear power plants can solve the problem of future shortage of power in southern Kazakhstan. However, this issue must be taken thoroughly; otherwise risks can exceed advantages, according to experts.
Kazakhstan again discusses nuclear power. In 2019, president of the country Kasym-Zhomart Tokayev stated that construction of NPP is not planned, but on September 3, 2021 speaking via video link on the plenary session of the 6th Eastern Economic Forum, he was determined to construct NPP in the country.
“I personally believe it’s time to consider this matter thoroughly because Kazakhstan needs a nuclear plant,” Tokayev said.
Two days before, the president in his message to the people of Kazakhstan said about the forthcoming energy shortage to take place by 2030.
“The global experience shows us the most optimal way out – the peaceful atom. This is a complex issue. Therefore, we need to take it rationally, free from wild guesses and emotions. The government and “Samruk-Kazyna” need to study the possibility of development of the safest and environmentally-safe nuclear power in Kazakhstan. This issue must be considered in terms of engineering development, formation of the new generation of qualified nuclear engineers in our country,” Kasym-Zhomart Tokayev said.
The Ministry of Energy named the village of Ulken in Almaty region and the town of Kurchatov in Eastern Kazakhstan region, where the Semipalatinsk nuclear test site was located earlier, as the probable locations of NPP this June.
The first time the idea of “peaceful atom” was discussed in Kazakhstan was in 1997. In various years, this idea was discussed at different levels, but public reaction remained negative.
Now the public and eco-activists react strongly to the statement of the president because there have been no information explanations about construction of NPP and no one has asked what people think about it.
After this information was published online, Kazakhstanis commented on it HOLA News:
Followers of the public account of Nur.KZ shared their opinion, too:
In 2019, speaking about the NPP, Tokayev promised to take into account public opinion and to hold a referendum, if necessary. Minister of energy Nurlan Nogayev promised to involve activists, public figures and bloggers in June 2021.
However, political analyst Dimash Alzhanov is sceptical about the promises made by the authorities and about the referendum, if any.
“We do not have a mechanism that would guarantee that the referendum would be conducted fairly. Its results may be rigged in favour of the government just like in the elections. Considering the general negative attitude towards the policy pursued by the authorities, not only regarding the construction of NPP, the government is unlikely to do so,” the political analyst said.
The shortage is coming
According to Yerkebulan Kozhmambet, a member of the Oil and Gas Board of the public council for fuel and energy issues at the Ministry of Energy of Kazakhstan, Kazakhstan is going to feel the shortage of power by 2025 in the south of the country up to 2.5 thousand megawatts due to infrastructure development and growth of population. And NPP construction can solve this issue.
“According to quarterly statements of the Ministry of Energy, power consumption increases in the south. Say, five years ago, consumption was up to 100B kWh, and now it is nearly 104-105 kWh,” the speaker said to CABAR.asia.
Moreover, Kazakhstan has ratified the Paris Climate Agreement. It binds the country to reduce carbon emissions and switch to “green” energy. However, according to Kozhmambet, alternative energy sources cannot fill the coming shortage. Only 15 per cent of the country can serve as a favourable location for wind power plants, and solar panels will always depend on weather conditions, and they cannot be installed across Kazakhstan.
“We can build a TPP because we have enough coal and oil. However, if we export electric power to the European countries, we will be paying a carbon tax, which Europe is intending to apply since 2023. This, in turn, will reduce the oil cost, thus, it is unprofitable for the national economy to build a TPP,” Kozhmambet said.
However, Kaisha Atakhanova, a biologist, a member of the Supervisory Board of the Social and Ecological Foundation, an expert in environmental security, said that NPPs would not fill the shortage of power in 2030. According to her, it could take up to 10 years to develop and coordinate the feasibility study of NPP construction. Construction and putting it into operation will take even more years. It’s obvious that the global energy market conditions will change greatly by the time of official launch of the station in Kazakhstan.
“Therefore, it would be a narrow-minded decision to rely on NPP as the technology that would solve the problem of energy supply to the southern region in the near future, and on reduction of emissions as a commitment of the country under the Paris Agreement,” the expert said.
What about corruption?
The government had better develop a full-scale strategy of energy preparedness development with participation of international experts and scholars instead of making an unambiguous decision in favour of NPP, according to Dimash Alzhanov. They must develop all possible alternative decision-making options and submit results of their studies to the public.
So far, in his opinion, the actions of the government look like a one-way promotion of NPP construction in favour of Russia.
“Russia is one of the leading countries in NPP construction and nuclear fuel manufacturing. However, the country does not have the most advanced technologies of reactor safety. Russia has a great political influence on the government of Kazakhstan and it is unlikely that Russia would let Kazakhstan involve another country in construction. And this is the problem,” the speaker said.
According to Kaisha Atakhanova, despite the statements made by the president, the authorities of the country doubt that NPP construction is fully and clearly economically feasible, and has environmental and radiation security.
“Kazakhstan is known to feel pressure from time to time from the Russian nuclear lobby for a decade regarding NPP construction. However, our government takes this sensitive issue very maturely because this issue has a range of key factors,” Atakhanova said.
Moreover, NPP construction will cost the national budget a vast deal of money. And it doesn’t even include future costs to ensure environmental and radiation safety, as well as safe decommissioning and returning the site to green field condition, plant shutdown costs and tackling labour matters of every employee.
“There are issues related to high level of corruption of projects in the nuclear industry, especially during NPP construction. It is all about commercial interests in international corporate agreements and contracts with multibillion-dollar budgets that need to be spent within decades. Moreover, access to such information will rather be restricted or closed,” Atakhanova said.
And taking into account the fact that human factor can play almost in everything, there are no guarantees that the NPP construction project won’t be involved in corruption and reactor safety won’t be compromised.
“The authorities of Kazakhstan are very irresponsible, they are not accountable to the public, the state administration system is highly corrupt and has no internal supervision mechanisms. NPP construction and further maintenance is an overwhelming task at this stage. Therefore, public concerns are reasonable and are well founded,” Dimash Alzhanov said.