“Central Asia is at the interface of the interests of major geopolitical players who are trying to influence the development trend in the region. The “Central Asian Five” needs to develop effective steps to confront any external actors to consider their interests,” Fazliddin Jamalov (Uzbekistan), a graduate of the CABAR.asia School of Analytics, notes in an article, written specifically for CABAR.asia.
The advantages of integration groupings in modern times cannot be overestimated. About 40% of world trade is carried out between countries that are members of various associations, and many of these agreements affect areas of international cooperation, which indicates the interdependence of economies. The main goal of the unification of countries is the realization of those interests of their governments that cannot be achieved without synergy with another country. Integration associations are necessary for sustainable and conflict-free development of the world economy. In particular, there have been several attempts to implement them in the Central Asian region. According to UN estimates, the population of Central Asia is currently 72.5 million. The share of Uzbekistan in it is about 45%, Kazakhstan – 25%, Tajikistan – 13%, Kyrgyzstan and Turkmenistan – 8.5% each.
Why and how should countries integrate?
One can treat the classification of prerequisites in different ways, but the main ones include the following two categories:
- Proximity of economic development and common problems of integrating countries. Usually there is an association of countries according to the level of their development, for example, developing countries are united with developing ones; industrial with industrial[1].
- The proximity of the geographical location of countries. A common border, historically established relationships and close cultural values are the drivers for the formation of associations. Such groups usually arise as a result of the successful unification of one country, and then neighboring countries in the region are connected.
These prerequisites have always prevailed on the agenda of regional partnership between the countries of Central Asia. Among the common factors characteristic of the countries of the region, the following can be singled out, motivating them to closer cooperation:
- the geographical position of the countries of the region and, in particular, the location of Uzbekistan from the center of the region and the border with all of them[2];
- similarity and closeness of national, cultural, religious, and socio-economic values.
- availability of common transport and energy communications.
- rational distribution of water resources in the region.
- commonality of issues of environmental protection, security, and sustainable development in the region.
An effective tool for integration is also the linguistic aspect, which helps to form an extensive regional language group. For example, European countries were able to organize the unification by forming a single language space, but at the same time retain their national languages. The similarity of the Turkic language groups in Central Asia can be used as a basis for applying the above approach for unification.
According to a study by the World Bank, an increase in sales markets for goods or services by an average of 10% due to an integration association leads to an influx of investments by an average of 5%[3]. Despite the fact that the effects of regional unification can manifest itself in the short, medium and long term, however, it can be noted that in general, the removal of trade barriers leads to an increase in regional trade, which is the reason for a sharp increase in competition, specialization of production, lower transaction costs, increase in income, etc.[4] Evidence of this is the report of the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, which predicts that the GDP of the countries of the region will grow by 4.3% in 2022 and by 4.8% in 2023.
Unsuccessful attempts
The issue of integration of the countries of Central Asia has always been on the agenda after the collapse of the USSR. In particular, the first president of Kazakhstan, Nursultan Nazarbayev, mentioned this more than once, noting that the heads of the Central Asian republics need to think about creating a union between Kazakhstan and Central Asia, as well as the revival of the Turkestan Union. However, due to the fact that none of the initiatives was implemented, in 1991 the Commonwealth of Independent States was created (unifying not only the Central Asian republics, but also all the countries of the former USSR, except Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia, and now Ukraine).
The second attempt to create Central Asian integration was laid in 1994 after the signing of the agreement “On the creation of a Common Economic Space between Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan”. Later, after the accession of Kyrgyzstan, the union became known as the Central Asian Economic Community (CAEC)[5]. In 1998, Tajikistan joined the agreement after the settlement of the internal political situation in the country. In 2002, the organization moved to a new level of integration and became known as the Central Asian Cooperation Organization (CACO). However, in 2004, the Russian Federation also joined the organization, whose actions liquidated the union and merged it with the Eurasian Economic Community. In 2008, Uzbekistan left the ranks of the members of the Eurasian Economic Community[6].
In the same year, on the initiative of Kazakhstan, a proposal was put forward to create a Union of Central Asia, which did not receive support. And only 9 years later, a new format appeared – “Consultative meetings of the heads of states of Central Asia.”
It should be noted that the initiative to hold consultative meetings was put forward by the President of Uzbekistan in 2017, when he participated in the 72nd session of the UN General Assembly:
“Being in the heart of Central Asia, Uzbekistan is directly interested in the region becoming a zone of stability, sustainable development, and good neighborliness. A peaceful, economically prosperous Central Asia is our most important goal and key task. Uzbekistan is resolutely disposed to dialogue, constructive interaction and strengthening of good neighborliness.”
The first summit of heads of state was held in March 2018 in Astana, the capital of Kazakhstan, and the second in November 2019 in Tashkent. A meeting scheduled for 2020 in Kyrgyzstan has been postponed due to the coronavirus pandemic. At a consultation in August 2021, the leaders of neighboring countries were received in Turkmenistan. In August this year, the fourth meeting of the heads of Central Asia was held in Kyrgyzstan, following which an agreement was signed “On friendship, good neighborliness and cooperation between the republics of Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan for the development of Central Asia in the 21st century.”
The agreement also provides for the intensification of cooperation between the parties in military, trade, economic, logistics, cultural and humanitarian, civil defense, as well as in the fields of energy and tourism. The treaty also contains obligations such as coordinating the powers of the countries of the region with regard to threats in the international arena, the use of force against each other, and refraining from threats of force. However, Tajikistan and Turkmenistan refrained from signing this agreement, arguing that it was ” incomplete domestic procedures in their countries”. Experts note that the refusal to accept the agreement for Tajikistan could be territorial disputes on the border, while Turkmenistan has a position of eternal neutrality. According to their estimates, if the agreement were accepted by all countries of the region, integration processes could be activated outside the Eurasian Economic Union.
Analysts assess the future of Central Asian integration in different ways. However, many say that the current intensification of integration processes was motivated by the crisis in Ukraine and the economic and social consequences of the war. According to the Kyrgyzstani economist Azamat Akeneev, unification movements have become much more active when illusions about their potential and importance for the world disappeared in the states of Central Asia. The acceptance of these countries by the international community as a single region should become an incentive to start mutual cooperation in Central Asia[7].
The role and vision of Uzbekistan in establishing a regional dialogue
It should be noted that over the past five years, due to the regional efforts of Uzbekistan, mutual trust, and cooperation between the countries of Central Asia have reached a new level. During this time, the atmosphere of friendship, good neighborliness and interaction has improved in our region.
Economic liberalization and gradual democratic transformations taking place in Uzbekistan are of great interest to the peoples of neighboring countries and have a positive impact on regional processes. Although until recently it was considered inappropriate in relations to talk about some regional issues, at the moment there is a tendency for openness to discuss controversial issues. In particular, the opening of border posts, the introduction of a visa-free regime contributes to the intensification of the movement of people, goods, and services in Central Asia. Due to a constructive approach in the foreign policy of Uzbekistan, many issues that have been a problem for years are being resolved, in particular political, trade and economic, transboundary, rational use of water resources, delimitation and demarcation of borders, border crossing points by citizens, development of mutual tourism.
At the initiative of the head of Uzbekistan, new mechanisms for regional cooperation were created. In particular, in the process of improving the concept of foreign policy activities of the Republic of Uzbekistan, adopted in 2012, establishing cooperation with the countries of Central Asia was identified as a priority. It should be noted that in accordance with the State Program for 2021, changes are being made to this concept and the adoption of the final document of Uzbekistan’s foreign policy is expected, which will also determine the position on the country’s entry into interstate formations and the position on the deployment of military bases on its territory.
It was also noted that serious attention will be paid to the issue of further strengthening our centuries-old friendship, good neighborly relations, strategic partnership, and relations in the spirit of mutual trust with the countries of the Central Asian region, which are the priorities of Uzbekistan’s foreign policy in 2021. Turning to the statistics, one can notice that the volume of trade between the states of Central Asia in 2021 increased by 55% compared to 2016.
Uzbekistan considers Central Asia as a platform for multilateral cooperation to expand the economic, transport and logistics potential of the region. According to the Center for Economic Research and Reforms of Uzbekistan for 2021, the share of Central Asian countries in foreign trade amounted to 6.3 billion USD, which is 15.1% of the world market.
In addition, Uzbekistan is becoming the initiator of various forums related to Central Asia in order to promote its image as an active subject of international relations. Thus, it was proposed to establish an investment forum of Central Asian countries in Tashkent, as well as to hold annual meetings of the heads of chambers of commerce and industry.
Uzbekistan plays a key role in ensuring security in Central Asia, including in the fight against terrorism, drug trafficking and human trafficking.[8] Official Tashkent represents the interaction of the countries of the region through the participation of Afghanistan. However, the coming to power of the Taliban[9] government (a terrorist organization banned in the countries of Central Asia – ed.) causes concern among its neighbors, which also forces them to cooperate to ensure stability, as well as a humanitarian crisis in the country. In particular, in July of this year, Tashkent hosted the International Conference on the theme “Afghanistan: security and economic development”, where representatives of the current Afghan government also took part. The holding of this forum is a logical continuation of the initiative of the leadership of Uzbekistan on the interconnectedness of the regions of Central and South Asia, which was highlighted in the article of the President of Uzbekistan Sh. Mirziyoyev before the SCO summit.
Central Asia also has common problems that concern not only the region, but the whole world. One of them is the problem of the drying up of the Aral Sea, which has become an ecological catastrophe of the 21st century. At the initiative of the Uzbek side, it was proposed to make the efforts of Central Asian scientists to conduct joint interdisciplinary research in order to mitigate the effects of desertification and climate change.
What can Tashkent offer and what is it promoting?
Official Tashkent counts on constructive mutually beneficial cooperation with all the countries of Central Asia. This is evidenced by holding meetings with heads of state at various venues where regional issues are discussed.
The Republic of Uzbekistan is interested in fully resolving the issues of border areas, which became possible with the coming to power of Shavkat Mirziyoyev. In particular, on the issue of resolving disputed border areas, in October 2022, Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan made concessions and, through a compromise, practically brought the issue of disputed territories to completion, having gone through the process of ratification by the parliaments of the countries on certain sections of the Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan state border. In July of this year, the working groups of the joint Tajik-Uzbek demarcation commission signed a new border protocol, according to which 1319 km of disputed territories out of 1326 km were identified. In this regard, the example of the final completion of the demarcation of the Kazakhstan-Uzbekistan border by concluding an appropriate contracts.
The Integrated Energy System (IES) of Central Asia has shown its inefficiency, causing a number of energy crises, for example, due to the accident of the energy ring in January 2022, when three Central Asian countries at once – Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan – found themselves without electricity for about a week. Uzbekistan intends to take a number of measures to expand and strengthen the work of the energy bloc in Central Asia. “In the future, we will take measures to expand and strengthen the ring. Now we are also working with Afghanistan, a 220 kV line operates in this direction, we are helping the Afghan people,” mentioned Eso Sadullayev, head of the strategic development department of Uzbekenergo.
Central Asia is experiencing environmental problems caused by the depletion of water resources and global climate change more than many regions of the world, which leads to desertification and extinction of biological species, and also adversely affects human health. At the IV Consultative Meeting of the Heads of the Central Asian States, Uzbekistan put forward the Green Agenda program for Central Asia, which is aimed at decarbonizing the economy, advancing the development of alternative energy with the organization of mutual supplies of electricity, the widespread introduction of water-saving and environmentally friendly technologies, as well as the rational use of water resources. The adoption of this program will ensure the implementation of the resolution of the 75th session of the UN General Assembly on declaring the Aral Sea region “a zone of environmental innovations and technologies.”
The strategic direction of regional cooperation remains the issues of collaboration in the field of security. Uzbekistan sees priority areas in this field as the fight against the traditional threats of extremism and terrorism, organized crime, and drug trafficking, as well as in the field of cybercrime. In this direction, the President of Uzbekistan proposed a number of measures at the international conference “Regional cooperation among the states of Central Asia”, including: the opening of the office of the UN Counter-Terrorism Office in Central Asia; convening in 2023 in Samarkand the Youth Council of the countries of Central and South Asia to discuss issues of regional security; creation of a Unified Electronic Network on Cyberterrorism in Central Asia to combat terrorism in the digital space. Uzbekistan is also interested in the stability and involvement of Afghanistan in the economic processes in Central Asia. “The states of the region, as close neighbors of this country, like no other, should be interested in its stability,” the leader of Uzbekistan mentioned.
Another step towards deepening regional cooperation can be the recently created “Alliance of Central Asian Experts” in order to develop a consolidated position of the expert community in key areas of sustainable development. In addition, the alliance will act as a platform for discussing topical issues of regional cooperation in the format of a constructive and open dialogue to address common challenges in Central Asia.
The countries of Central Asia need to join forces to increase their competitiveness on the world stage. The adoption of these measures will contribute to the implementation of large investment projects, attracting investments, which will pave the way for a technological revolution in the region. It should be noted that this is positively affected by the proposals of the heads of the Central Asian states, who are interested in strengthening peace and security, sustainable socio-economic development in the Central Asian region.
Conclusion and recommendations
It should be emphasized that Central Asia is at the interface of the interests of major geopolitical players who are trying to influence the development trend in the region. The “Central Asian Five” needs to develop effective steps to confront any external actors in order to consider their interests. Based on the trend towards closer cooperation, the experts consider it appropriate:
- to maintain the format of holding consultative meetings, since institutionalization and its transformation into an organization can lead to the intervention of external actors, as well as the collapse of regional integration.
- To increase the frequency of holding consultative meetings at the level of the heads of foreign affairs and defense departments of the five countries up to two times a year to effectively identify and resolve issues.
- To establish the practice of decision-making on the basis of consensus in order to consider the interests of each of the countries, which will further facilitate the procedure for signing a treaty by all parties.
- To hold an annual regional youth forum of the countries of Central Asia to promote the ideas of unity and cultural commonality among peoples, which will allow creating a “pole of good neighborliness” in the future.
The countries of Central Asia need to use every opportunity to hold meetings to resolve joint issues, otherwise the threats and problems of regional security will only get worse.
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[3] World Bank. 2022. Global Economic Prospects, January 2022. Washington, DC: World Bank. doi: 10.1596/978-1-4648-1758-8.
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[8] Akhmedov Kh.T. The Republic of Uzbekistan in integration processes in the post-Soviet space // Post-Soviet Studies. 2019. No. 1. With. 854-865
[9] The Taliban* is under UN sanctions for terrorist activities.