A little more than a year has passed since Kyrgyzstan cancelled the results of last parliamentary election and the country’s leadership totally changed. In the last election campaign, experts note vapid campaign and pessimistic moods among voters.
Record low voter turnout
In Kyrgyzstan, the powers of deputies of the sixth convocation of parliament expired in autumn last year. However, the attempts to elect the seventh convocation in October 2020 failed. By results of voting, pro-governmental parties that were accused of falsifications and vote buying won the election. The Kyrgyzstanis dissatisfied with the results took to streets to protest, which finally led to civil unrest and the resignation of President Sooronbai Zheenbekov.
After these events, the law “On calling the elections of deputies of Zhogorku Kenesh of the Kyrgyz Republic” was amended to have 90 deputies of parliament instead of 120. Moreover, according to the amendments, the Kyrgyzstanis voted according to the mixed system – proportional (party) and majority (single-member districts) – at the November 28 election.
According to the CEC, the voter turnout in the single constituency at the parliamentary election of November 28 was 34.67 per cent of total number of voters, and in the single-member districts – 34.96 per cent. This is a record low figure in the history of elections in sovereign Kyrgyzstan.
According to preliminary data of manual vote counting, seven parties “Ata-Zhurt Kyrgyzstan”, “Yntymak”, “Ishenim”, “Yiman Nuru”, “Alliance”, “Butun Kyrgyzstan” and “El Umutu” crossed the 5% threshold.
According to Denis Berdakov, director of the Institute for Social and Political Studies, the low voter turnout has simple explanation.
“When we do not use the administrative resource, which wasn’t used at this election, and remove vote buying, people do not want to vote in free elections,” the expert said. “It happens because of the full political apathy. In other words, this election is the evidence that people clearly know that the instruments available now do not change the situation. It is easier for people to stage a revolution than to come and vote.”
According to Berdakov, the election proved that all previous ballots was encouraged by vote buying and administrative resource.
“In other words, we can conclude that 2021 showed full political apathy, when people did not want to vote or run for parliament. However, almost every Kyrgyzstani had a chance to run for parliament,” he said.
During the election campaign, candidates for single-member districts and political parties were campaigning listlessly. According to Denis Berdakov, little emphasis was placed on media advertising and work with voters.
“They could, for example, address the people living in a certain place or to a certain social group, offer clear ideas so that people knew what to vote for. But they [candidates] went the same path and tried to involve some old contacts, their acquaintances. In other words, no one understood that according to the new election system a country for the deputy is their district,” the political analyst said.
Powers of parliament curtailed
After the constitutional reform in spring 2021, powers of deputies were significantly restricted. In addition to the reduced number of deputies, they may not unite in the majority or minority coalition now. These notions were eliminated because previously the majority coalition could shape the government, and now this is the right of the president. Accordingly, now deputies may not impeach credibility of the cabinet of ministers and dismiss it.
Now it is harder for people’s representatives to impeach the head of state. Previously, the parliament could file charges and submit them to the General Prosecutor’s Office for approval. Now one more body must take part in this process – the Constitutional Court, whose head is appointed by the president.
However, despite it, the number of parties and those wishing to be in the new convocation of parliamentarians has not reduced. According to co-chair of the Pikir Club of Regional Experts, Igor Shestakov, this is due to the fact that deputies are still taken by the society as a face of power, and a seat in Zhogorku Kenesh gives an opportunity to deal with the president, government officials.
“Zhogorku Kenesh will surely have the right to express their opinion, to represent the voters and thus influence the decision-making of the authorities. Therefore, politicians want to occupy seats in the parliament. However, the way how the parliament will be settled in the system of super-presidential republic remains to be seen based on the realia, in which it will be working,” Shestakov said.
It will be possible only if the new composition of parliament is formed.
Failure in system
During processing of voting data received from ballot boxes, a failure occurred on the CEC website. As a result, the page was temporarily unavailable. After the page started working, the website had different information. According to the head of Central Election Commission, Nurzhan Shayldabekova, the problems were related to the errors in software, which were resolved. However, representatives of some parties said that their votes went missing after the failure and they raised doubts about voting results.
As a result, President Sadyr Zhaparov ordered to count votes manually. “If any falsification by CEC is detected, all CEC members will be held accountable. Their heads shall pay for it,” the president wrote on his Facebook page.
Commenting this case, experts agreed that such an error was possible technically but it hit the image of the national election system hard. According to Igor Shestakov, it is quite unbelievable that some dirty technologies were used.
“However, nothing should be ruled out until we have a real picture of what has happened on servers,” the expert said.
At the same time, this is the second scandal with the head of CEC Nurzhan Shayldabekova. In 2020, the election results were cancelled and now the situation is that election results could not be summarised and votes are being counted manually.
“It is a kind of some systemic bad luck, but anyway the current composition of the CEC should be changed in case of re-election,” Shestakov said.
Recognition of election results
If Kyrgyzstan can finally manage to form legal and legitimate parliament, according to Berdakov, it can help stabilise the system, and enter into international treaties. Moreover, according to experts, oligarchs could not make it to the parliament according to preliminary results.
“Zhogorku Kenesh, especially the last two convocations, turned into closed joint-stock companies, where the problems of rich groups were solved, and the people were left behind,” said political analyst Mars Sariev. “This time, I suppose, oligarchs failed and the new parliament will represent this group less. I think, it will be the people’s parliament. Anyway, I hope so.”
Election results make the difference
Elections in Kyrgyzstan did not solve social issues in a whisk, but the situation can be taken under control, according to experts. According to Denis Berdakov, harsh winter and energy crisis still remain.
“A difficult social and economic year is ahead with a possible surge in the dollar and rise in fuel prices at least for 4-5 som (5-6 cents),” the political analyst said. “We need to understand that the year to come will resemble the 90s somehow. However, the top-down command structure will remain in Kyrgyzstan, with trade flows improving and the whole system manageable. And that’s what matters. It’s far more dangerous if the system cannot be gotten under control.”
However, according to experts, expectations of citizens are quite pessimistic – low voter turnout showed disappointment and distrust of citizens in the new parliament being able to change the lives of ordinary Kyrgyzstanis for the better.
“People are well aware that the new parliament elected by them won’t make a difference in the package of products in their fridge or their household income. Moreover, migrant sentiment prevails in the society, and people live according to the sink-or-swim principle. If we take into account the increasing processes of labour migration, the authorities have a reason to think about it,” Shestakov said.