In the interview to CABAR.asia, Ukraine-based political analyst and expert in international relations Maksim Yakovlev talks what connects the countries in the region with Ukraine, where the Ukraine-Russia crisis originates, and what the outcome of recovering authoritarian regimes in the world will be.
The countries of Central Asia are linked with Ukraine not only by their common past, but also by cooperative present. Attentive residents of the region may recall that Ukraine is renowned in their countries not only by confectionary products, which are not the top export items, but also by medications, iron industry products, paper products, and even a wide range of food products.
Ukraine supplies not only goods, but services to the region. Ukrainian specialists and their expertise are in high demand in the sphere of IT, adjustment of various types of plants, opening of oil and mineral deposits, mainly in Turkmenistan.
Kazakhstan takes the first place in trade turnover, in 2020 the total trading volume (goods and services) between the countries was 813.4 million dollars. Uzbekistan is on the second place, in 2019 the total trading volume was 328 million dollars. Then follows Turkmenistan with 168 million (2019).
Cooperation with Kyrgyzstan, 32 million (2019), and Tajikistan, 24.1 million dollars (2020), is rather moderate.
In all these countries, the Ukrainian export prevails and reaches almost 90 per cent of the whole trade turnover. The main trade route from Ukraine to the region runs through Russia, alternative yet less comfortable ways – by sea via South Caucasus and Caspian Sea. According to experts, the conflict between Ukraine and Russia has negative impact on the trade turnover with the Central Asian states. For example, in 2014, the annual trade turnover between Ukraine and Tajikistan was nearly 50 million dollars, and in 2020 this figure was down by fifty per cent.
Nevertheless, cooperation between Ukraine and Central Asia continues. The parties are linked not only by economic, but also by close cultural and humanitarian cooperation. Tens of students from Turkmenistan, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan and other countries study at various universities of Ukraine, especially in the sphere of medicine. Various musical groups with their programmes come from the region to Ukraine and from Ukraine to Central Asian countries.
Maksim Yakovlev, Ukraine-based expert, head of intenrational relations department, director of the School of Political Analysis of the National University of Kyiv Mohyla Academy, Assistant Professor, candidate of political sciences, talks about the potential of further cooperation, awards and Russian factor to CABAR.asia.
Central Asia, Ukraine and Big Brother
What is the link between Ukraine and Central Asian states? Is there any potential for relations development?
Let me start with the ideological thing that is important for Ukraine because we are at war with Russia, which is called a hybrid war. We have a war at Donbass. Russia has occupied the Crimea and the situation was aggravated by the Russian imperialism. I think Central Asia feels it too, especially when the Kremlin says that Kazakhstan had never existed as a state, that they should protect their Russian-speaking compatriots in Central Asia. These talks make the countries of your region feel what Russian imperialism is, and this is what links us. Also, the Central Asian countries feel that language and national identity issues are very important. These issues are also important for Ukraine. This is what consolidates us.
The second point is the possibility to transport power resources from Central Asia to Ukraine. I am not an expert in this field, but I can say that cooperation in the energy sector is vital for us. We could have more export-import relations. We can also strengthen cooperation with China because Central Asia knows better how to interact with China. And we can use this route to supply resources to Ukraine and then to other European countries. When I looked at the map, I wondered because the distance from the eastern border Ukraine-Russia border to Kazakhstan was less than to the western border of Ukraine. I’ve never paid attention to this fact before. In other words, your region is much closer than it seems.
Another aspect is labour migration. Over the long term, we will need migrant workers from Central Asia and it will be our interaction point. I keep on saying that when Ukraine will need workforce from other countries it will be the sign of its economic recovery. So far, the scheme looks like this: a good German doctor looks for a job at the United States and Canada (because of higher wages). A Polish doctor replaces him, and then the Ukrainian doctor replaces them. I can easily imagine a situation when doctors from Central Asian republics come to Ukraine and replace the doctors who moved to Poland. This is quite real.
How does the crisis in Ukraine-Russia relations affect the relations between Ukraine and Central Asia?
The Kremlin has declared not only Ukraine, but almost all western world as their enemy. Everyone is bad for them: Baltic states are bad; Moldova that set a course for Europe is also bad, and so on. However, we are all a part of the European subcontinent.
The main thing is to build bilateral relations without looking at Russia because this is what Moscow wants: to have Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and other countries always look at Moscow when cooperating with Ukraine to see if it approves it or not. This is wrong. The fact that we are sovereign states that can pursue their own foreign policy makes us able to build relations without looking at Russia for approval. But it’s up to Central Asian states – do they want to cooperate with Ukraine, aren’t they afraid of Moscow.
You have said that the shortest route from Ukraine to Central Asian states runs through Russia. What are alternative routes that would improve trade and other relations in circumvention of Russia?
I’ve read and heard much about the increasing role of Turkey in Central Asia. Ukraine is also interested in cooperation with Turkey. So, we have capacities to develop trade via Turkey both by air or water. Although, I am not an expert in this sphere. Of course, it would be longer and more expensive, but it is a real alternative.
Ukraine-Russia crisis is related not only to Putin
What are the factors that affect the improvement in Ukraine-Russia relations?
This question is both easy and difficult. First, Russia needs to withdraw its forces from the so-called “people’s republics” and return the Crimea to us. Moscow thinks that the Crimea issue is over, but it is not over for us. We will not come to terms with the attempted annexation of the Crimea, and what happens in specific districts of Donetsk and Lugansk regions is absurd. So far, these issues are not solved. Russia waits for the surrender of Ukraine, but it will not happen. The above issues have not been solved, so there are no reasons to resolve the crisis in relationships.
Is this crisis in relationships between Ukraine and Russia based on Putin’s regime only or is it deeper?
Someone said once in Ukraine: all Russian liberalism and Russian democracy end on the Ukrainian issue. I think it is deeper. The average Russian finds it very difficult to admit that Ukrainians are a separate nation, although with a similar language, culture and orthodox belief, yet another nation, and that we want to live separately, without “big brother”. There is no force in Russia that would understand it, so far. Russia has no critical thinking of its imperious heritage, imperious history – it was colonisation, including of Central Asia, it was an attack on local cultures. Speaking of your region, we could often hear that in the old days the wild men were running about the prairies, and Russia brought civilisation… But it is an oversimplification. In modern world, no one speaks of it, and Russia just tosses around words saying that it brought culture and other things to this region, to Ukraine.
So, we cannot say that after the change of Putin’s regime the relations between Ukraine and Russia will change much.
We hope for that. But we understand that even more radical elements could come to power after Putin’s regime. Russia is carrying out a great ideological work now, saying that Russia is a fortress in the siege, with enemies all around, and the outcomes of this propaganda will not change at the snap of fingers. The population has their brain washed and the change will take much time. If after the change of regime Russia Today and federal channels will show that Russia has equal states around it, that they can use their languages etc., then we might see changes in thinking of the Russians in 5-10 years. The foreign political doctrine may not be revised without critical thinking of the imperial past and present, which Russia has now.
The Kyrgyz, Kazakhs and other peoples of Central Asia differ from the Russians both in appearance and culturally, and it’s easier for you in this regard. While many Russians, even those with democratic views, do not see any difference between the Russians and Ukrainians. Russians have a problem with understanding that the Ukrainians want to be individual. Of course, there are some Russians who understand it, but they are very few. Even liberal Russians, the brainpower do not think that the rejection of the imperial past is a top priority issue for their country.
Do you mean that the foreign policy of current Russia is generally the reflection of the attitudes and thinking of an average Russian?
The foreign policy of Russia, its components are generally in compliance with what an average Russian thinks. Europe, the British overcame this a long time ago. Russian banned the entity “Memorial”, now it is forbidden to study and even speak about repressions and critical thinking of their past, even on this scale, not to mention the imperial past.
Maybe, their policy fits all because it has a good ground for it?
No one has worked with the people, they have no educational projects raising a question “why do we need the empire?” Russia has many villages and towns with no gas, indoor toilets, water supply. They have so many things to do. Why do they meddle in Syria, annex the Crimea and wage war at Donbass?
“Science doesn’t develop in the authoritarian regime”
Authoritarian regimes around the world get stronger, unite into different organisations and promote another scheme of a state as opposed to the western democracies. Meanwhile, the western democracies encounter crisis, and their model is greatly challenged. Will the democratic values withstand this challenge?
This is true: western democracies as a format do encounter the crisis. In authoritarian regimes, any lockdown is easier to impose, but in the longer term, the people still like freedom. Science doesn’t develop in the authoritarian regime. You cannot force a man think. After the collapse of the USSR, even Russia admitted that the project of the Soviet nuclear bomb was initially stolen from the Americans – drawings and other details. In other words, the scientific technical progress is impossible without freethinking. As we can judge from the coronavirus, in the short term, authoritarian methods and the notorious controlling hand are in place. What will be next? We know that China adopts books, whole courses and academic programmes from the West, attracts western scientists. Only when people are free, they can advance science, development.
Now, we see some success. But in the long run, this model will not lead to development. The Soviet Union existed for some 70 years and then it encountered changes. The western world is now facing a big crisis, but it always survived crises and succeeded in them.
However, we see some shades of Asian authoritarianism in the European Union – in Poland, Hungary and other central European states…
I believe there will be a back turn to the democratic values. It won’t happen at once. Sometimes, you need to make a couple of steps back to understand why you need freedom. Famous sociologist Robert Merton has a self-fulfilling prophecy concept. In other words, if we work ourselves up saying that it is the end of western democracies, it can happen. And if we believe that democratic institutions will be reformed and make up something new, it can happen so, as well.
Democracy could face some changes. But the very idea, the fundamentals – freedom, personal liberty, freedom of speech – they will remain. A man is a freedom-loving creature. Otherwise, human should be modified as a species to make us wanting to do the same things.