On February 18, the head of Kyrgyzstan, Sadyr Japarov, gathered all his predecessors at one table in Dubai. According to him, the meeting was held for the sake of unity in the country. However, according to political analysts, the president’s motives are not that high.
Kyrgyzstanis learned about the country’s unprecedented meeting of all ex-leaders of the country from the social media post of the incumbent president Sadyr Japarov. In the post he published, he wrote that “his cherished dream has become true for the sake of the republic.”
“I could not stop thinking about holding a meeting between ex-presidents once elected by the people and who left their office tragically in order to unite people, and it would be the greatest gift,” he wrote.
According to him, ex-presidents shared their grievances, admitted their flaws, and forgave each other at the table.
First-hand information
The first one of ex-leaders of Kyrgyzstan to tell about the meeting was Almazbek Atambaev. Just few days before the event, he had been released from prison and, according to him, he was heading to Spain for treatment at the invitation of the head of government of the country.
He said that Sadyr Japarov personally invited him, but he did not know that he would meet with all of his predecessor there upon arrival. In social media, he said that he was “also for peace and unity in the republic”, yet he emphasised that “the establishment of peace and unity in the republic and the return of Bakievs to Kyrgyzstan are two different things.”
He also said that he left the meeting like an Englishman, without saying goodbye to anyone.
Askar Akaev was the next to share his impressions from the initiative. It should be noted that in December 2022, several criminal cases regarding withdrawal of funds and financial fraud by the first president were dismissed “for lack of evidence.” According to him, he was invited by Sadyr Japarov in person, but meeting with other ex-leaders of the state was a surprise for him, just like for Atambaev.
“Having done so by withdrawing possible grievances against his predecessors, Sadyr Japarov demonstrated his political wisdom and human generosity. I myself supported this initiative and called on my colleagues to consolidation and support for the sake of happy future of Kyrgyzstan and strengthened stability in the Kyrgyz society,” said Askar Akaev in the interview to Azattyk.
The last one among those invited to share about the meeting was Sadyr Japarov’s predecessor, Sooronbai Zheenbekov. In his post on Facebook he wrote that the only purpose of the meeting was to strengthen unity in the country.
“The head of state urged us to leave division of society into supporters of various politicians behind. We certainly approved of this noble initiative,” Zheenbekov wrote.
Roza Otunbaeva, who now holds the office of the special representative of the UN Secretary-General to Afghanistan and the head of the UN Assistance Mission in Afghanistan, and Kurmanbek Bakiev, convicted in absentia and sentenced to 30 years in prison in Kyrgyzstan, did not give comments on the meeting.
Messiah’s function
Although Sadyr Japarov and his press service said that the meeting was organised “for the sake of strengthening the unity and consolidation of the Kyrgyz”, there is an opinion that this step was dictated by political strategists for narrower and smaller purposes.
According to political analyst, instructor of the OSCE Academy, Emil Dzhuraev, mistrust towards the president’s statement is rather justified.
“I think it was a hasty and premature action and it will hardly bring the outcomes that Sadyr Japarov declared – i.e. consolidation of people, forgiveness of all presidents by the people, if it was ever discussed then. If it was not discussed and if ex and the incumbent presidents just gathered to forgive each other, then people do not care about who humiliated who and why. So, they should not have announced the meeting so widely, and they should have done it in a narrower circle,” Dzhuraev said.
Medet Tyulegenov, political science instructor in AUCA, noted that organization of such meeting is typical for the general presidency style of Sadyr Japarov, when some of his ruling moments look precarious, when hasty dramatic decisions are made. It happened just the same with the constitution amendment, denunciation of the Kumtor gold mine agreement, and its further nationalisation.
“The general presidency style of Japarov is based on his belief that he has some unique favourable moment, some messiah’s function to resolve the country’s development issue the way he sees it, of course,” Tyulegenov said.
He said that Sadyr Japarov creates the image of a person who has come to build, rectify something that others failed to do. The same was done by first president Askar Akaev. The same rhetoric was used by Kurmanbek Bakiev, who came to power after the 2005 revolution. Almazbek Atambaev also stated that after the 2010 revolution Kyrgyzstan turned the page and built something new. Now the current president is doing the same.
“But he has a certain cart blanche as he, unlike previous presidents, did not come from the top league of political actors, from the top of the opposition. The man who was the prisoner has become the actual head of state in a couple of weeks, literally. It created his opinion that he was favoured by destiny and he should seize the moment to build the country’s future the way he sees it,” Tyulegenov said.
Unordinary leader
In terms of consolidation of power, the meeting was not important for President Japarov, according to Arzuu Sheranova, doctoral student of the division of international relations and political studies of Corvinus University of Budapest. He could already do it via the new Constitution, people’s Kurultai, including the demonstration of strength via mass arrests of activists detained for criticism of the transfer of Kempir Abad reservoir to Uzbekistan in October 2022.
Nevertheless, according to Sheranova, there are constant fears of social and economic situation in the country, rising inflation and worsening of living conditions, especially during political crises.
“The meeting was indeed in favour of Japarov, but it is unclear why he needed it right then. There may be external factors. With a strong power in his hands, he did not need ‘games’ like this,” the expert said.
We can know what happened at the meeting of ex-presidents only from Japarov, and from some excerpts of interviews of previous ex-heads of state. No one knows if there was any reconciliation, Medet Tyulegenov said.
“I don’t think some of those people had reconciled with some of the meeting participants. I don’t think Japarov, being a common-sense person to some extent, thinks there was some reconciliation. So, it was a sort of information and propaganda campaign intended not for its participants, but for the audience within the country,” the expert said.
He said that it was the attempt of the incumbent president to show himself as an unordinary leader of the country.
“This method of showing what he is able to do, i.e. gather such people together, still requires efforts. And to show that everything that was before him was a backward world. And now the new epoch begins with me. It is a declaration that we will have something new with him. In this sense, it is a sort of a publicity stunt,” Tyulegenov said.
Main photo: president.kg