The number of glaciers in Kyrgyzstan has risen by 1,795 in recent years, but it does not mean that new glaciers have emerged. Their total number has become more because larger glaciers melt and turn into smaller ones. The glaciation area of Kyrgyzstan, i.e. the area of glaciers, have reduced by 16 per cent in recent decades.
According to the Ministry of Natural Resources, Ecology and Technical Supervision, the area of glaciers in Kyrgyzstan will be reduced by half by 2050, and they can totally disappear by 2100. Moreover, the real process can go much faster than it is expected, according to the agency.
At the end of April, Marat Imankulov, Secretary of the Security Council of Kyrgyzstan, said at the international conference “Deficit of Water Resources in Central Asia: Ways to Solve Water Issues at the Regional and International Levels”, that 16 per cent of glaciers disappeared in the country from 1970 to 2016.
“This is the data of Kyrgyzgidromet as of 2016 as the data was not updated afterwards. Now we are working to update it,” the official said.
According to him, Kyrgyzstan had 9,957 glaciers from 2013 to 2016. Their total area was 6,683 square kilometres. But, according to the catalogue of glaciers in the USSR compiled in the 40-70s of the 20th century, Kyrgyzstan had 8,166 glaciers with total area of 7,945 square kilometres. Thus, the number of glaciers has arisen, but their total area has declined.
Glaciers and permanent snow of Kyrgyzstan, which are located on the area of 8,100 square kilometres, occupy almost one third of the total area of Kyrgyzstan. Glaciers cover 4 per cent of the country’s territory. They contain 580 million cubic metres of water, this volume can cover all Kyrgyzstan by a three-meter high layer of water. Journalists of CABAR.asia talked to glaciologist Ryskul Usubaliev, National Correspondent of the World Glacier Monitoring Service, head of department ‘Climate, Water and Geoecology” of Central Asian Institute of Applied Researches of the Earth, and ecologist, candidate of medical sciences Kaliya Moldogazieva, about the reasons for intense melting, forecasts of the process and possible measures to counter it.
CABAR.asia: Ryskul Abdyzhakypovich, what factors affect the reduction of glacial area? And what is the power of impact of each of them?
Usubaliev: The key factor is the air temperature. Glaciers melt in summer, and gain moisture in winter. It used to be like that in the past. But lately glaciers melt intensely due to climate change.
The planet is warming. The main reason of melting is positive temperature in the highlands. Intensity depends on the value and duration of the temperature regime.
Another reason of melting is contamination of glacier surface by different substances. The glaciers of Central Asia – Tien Shan and Pamir – are located inland and surrounded mainly by desert and arid zones. They often cause so-called dust storms, which travel to the glacial areas of mountains and settle down on the surface of glaciers, thus contaminating their surface. The downward solar radiation is insufficiently reflected back to space and it creates additional warmth in the glacial area. Such processes also affect the intensity of melting.
Another reason is that climate change changes the nature of precipitation in the highlands. The highland areas of Tien Shan, Pamir face the trend of diminishing precipitation. The glacier mass balance becomes negative every year due to glacial melting and less precipitation. Glaciers shrink at various paces and depending on the location.
CABAR.asia: What are the forecasts of glacial area reduction?
Usubaliev: As long as the world faces the ongoing climate change trend, glacial areas will decline in the foreseeable future. If we speak about Tien Shan glaciers, there are various possible models of developments, but they all demonstrate that glaciers will tend to shrink amid current climate warming. The intensity of the process depends on the region and height of ranges: the higher they are, the more likely it is to save them. Glaciers will disappear on the ridges that are less than 4,500-4,600 metres high. They can be well preserved on higher levels. They differ significantly in altitude characteristics at Tien Shan. Thus, glaciers will shrink more in southern regions of Kyrgyzstan, especially on the Fergana Ridge, northern areas of Tien Shan, Talas Ridge, Kirghiz, Kungei-Ala-Too. By 2050-60-70s, glaciers will shrink up to 70 per cent in the said areas. High mountain glaciers, e.g. Central Tien Shan or Chon-Alai Ridge, face melting to a smaller extent as compared to other regions of Tien Shan or Pamir-Alai.
CABAR.asia: Are there ways to stop the process, which measures can be taken to make sure the process does not become disastrous and who is responsible for them?
Usubaliev: It is impossible to stop the process of glacial melting by human resources. The only way to somehow stop the intense melting is to reduce pollutant emissions into the atmosphere. First of all, CO2. If we emit less hydrocarbon into the atmosphere, we can contribute to glacial preservation to some extent. According to many suggestions, it is the increased content of CO2 in the atmosphere that causes climate warming. If we can somehow reduce it or keep it at the current level, we can possibly stop the warming process.
This is the only way we can protect our glaciers. However, there are no other drastic ways to stop the melting process today. Various suggestions have been made: to cover the glaciers with geotextiles or to create artificial precipitation above glaciers to form them. It is possible in theory, but it is very difficult to implement due to high expenses.
CABAR.asia: How and what is affected by melting glaciers?
Usubaliev: Melting glaciers directly affect ecology, water reserves and economy. If they disappear, ecological balance will be disturbed. They affect water content of rivers, economy in its various sectors. Glacial meltwater make the largest portion of most rivers. Meltwater in River Naryn amounts to nearly 7.5 per cent. In the crop season, their portion increases up to 30-40 per cent, depending on climatic conditions. Therefore, their role is very significant.
However, we should not go to the other extreme. If glaciers disappear forever, water in rivers will not disappear. Other natural processes will ensure nourishment of rivers; precipitation and snow cover can increase. The role of glaciers is that they provide water in summertime. Their role increases especially in arid years. In other words, they compensate the necessary amount of water in such years. They act as a safety net. It is quite natural that many river basins depend on glacial waters. Thus, River Saryzhaz consists fully of glacial waters.
Moldogazieva: Meltwater ensures nearly 80 per cent of river yield in Central Asia as a result of melting of snow, glaciers and permafrost. Glaciers are the most significant source of water for irrigated cropping and production of hydropower. In the short run, minor increase of water flow in some glacial waters in summer months is expected due to intense melting glaciers and permafrost. But in the long run, water flow will decrease until some glaciers totally disappear.
By 2050, according to expert estimates, the stream flow of River Amudarya could reduce by 7-15 per cent, and Syrdarya by 5 per cent due to loss of glaciers and permafrost, rise of temperature, evaporation increase and reduction of surface flow. In small rivers fed by small glaciers this reduction will be more significant and can even result in drying up of rivers in the next few decades. Closer to 2100, this reduction is expected to be even more. But even a small reduction can have disastrous consequences in the downstream regions, which already face the shortage of water.
In the next decades, Central Asia is expecting a serious water scarcity. But it is not all consequences of glacier melting. Ecosystems and all the environment will suffer. Climate change will lead to desertification and loss of biodiversity. It will also exacerbate the natural disasters situation such as floods, landslides, and outbursts of glacier lakes. Climate change and glacier melting will lead to the loss of rare and critically endangered biological species, change of land use in mountain areas, which will affect socioeconomic conditions and human life activities.
Because of the 2014 drought, when some crop yields reduced significantly, there was a 20 per cent leap in food prices. The same leap happened in 2021 compared to the previous year. Climatic changes will provoke further rise in prices of agricultural products and foods. Even now international experts raise alarm speaking about mass hunger, risks of new infections and crop pests in the world.
CABAR.asia: Is the situation with glaciers a problem of Kyrgyzstan or all Central Asia?
Usubaliev: Glacier melting is not a problem of Kyrgyzstan or all Central Asian region, it is a worldwide problem. Speaking of the region, two major rivers – Amudarya and Syrdarya – are the source of water storage. If glaciers of Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan shrink, it will affect all of Central Asia. It is the only natural area. Everything is interdependent, and many of our rivers are transboundary and affect all neighbouring countries. We all depend on each other, so we must solve them jointly, and together use water rationally. Only then we can promote sustainable and conflict-free development in the region.
Moldogazieva: Kyrgyzstan is one of the largest glacial regions in Central Asia. Melting of Tien Shan and Pamir glaciers poses a risk of water scarcity to the whole region: the amount of irrigation and drinking water may decrease dramatically, food security concerns may arise, the republic may have a decline in its hydroelectric potential. As a result, tense socioeconomic situations may arise. All this may happen amid population upsurge in the region. The first signs of shortage of water resources are obvious at Syrdarya – the longest river in Central Asia. It rises from Fergana Valley and feeds the area with over 25 million inhabitants when crossing the territories of Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan. Unfortunately, its waters are not enough to feed them all. The Aral Sea gets nothing from the river.
According to the UN, the current population of Central Asia in 2019 was 74 million 5 thousand 626 people, nearly 1 per cent of all population of the Earth. In 2020, the increase in population in the region was over 1 million people. Moreover, 25 per cent of the territory of Central Asia is occupied by deserts. Water here is a valuable strategic resource, which is critically important to grow water-intensive crops such as rice and cotton. In the meantime, irrigation consumes much water leading to depletion of rivers. As population and the number of various economic projects increase, water consumption rises too. This tendency is inherent not only to the region of Central Asia, it is a worldwide problem.
However, according to the World Bank research, Central Asia is warming faster than other regions of the world. This effect gathers pace due to melting of glaciers, which are important water sources for agriculture and energy production. According to researchers, such changes will change the nature of precipitation, evaporation and water demand in the future. It is difficult to meet these challenges as rivers in the region cross state borders, while reservoirs occupy several countries.
According to researchers of Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography, water crisis rises in the region. They classify Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan as countries with strong water scarcity, Tajikistan as a country with high water stress level, and Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan as moderate countries. The research team also noted that in all countries of Central Asia the share of rural residents having access to safe drinking water is much less than the share of urban residents. However, unlike the experts of the World Bank, researches from China think that it is human activity, not climate change, is the main reason of water crisis.
The FrontierView analytical team in its report on the research of Central Asia and South Caucasus summarised that the crisis was caused by changing climate, high population growth rates, inadequate infrastructure and geopolitical tension.
Main photo: V. Ushakov