A new city will be built on the shore of Lake Issyk-Kul. Sadyr Zhaparov said so when he became president. He did not mention the details, but said it would be a modern metropolis with no analogues in the country.
To say that the idea of the head of state was treated with distrust would be an understatement. It has been caused by the fact that over the years of independence Kyrgyzstan has not built a single large-scale production facility, not to speak of the whole city. The idea became even more questionable after the estimated cost of the project, 20 billion dollars, was announced. There is no information on how and on what these funds would be distributed.
That is a huge amount. For comparison, this is almost 14 times the annual volume of all investments in fixed assets of the republic (the total volume in 2021 was 1 billion 441.7 million dollars) and 4.5 times the amount the Canadian investor has paid Kyrgyzstan for 26 years of Kumtor mining, the country’s most famous gold mine. Its production is so vast that GDP is calculated both without it and with it.
Despite the seemingly hopeless project, the authorities have reported that French investors have been interested in it. And according to the authorities, they are ready to invest the amount needed for the construction into the project. Apart from the country of origin, nothing is known about the sponsors so far.
The fact that the investor of Asman would be a French company was first voiced in late December 2021. Then deputy Ravshan Sabirov told journalists that the construction would commence in March 2022. However, it is already May, and the authorities have not reported on the commencement of construction yet.
Moreover, the contract with the French has not yet been signed, so far it is only a matter of expression of their interest. What could have made the businesspersons so interested that they are ready, according to the authorities, to invest a large amount, and most importantly, how they intend to return the investment is also unclear.
Asman, the city of the future
The official presentation of the project «Asman, the city of the future» took place in the beginning of July 2021. According to the project, the city will be built on 4 thousand hectares off the coast of Issyk-Kul. From a bird’s eye panorama, it will resemble the national musical instrument of komuz.
According to the authors’ concept, the city is destined to become the economic and tourism hub of the country, where the advanced educational system, modern recreational and business centres, stadiums, hi-tech parks, as well as financial institutions would be built.
The technical infrastructure would be based on hi-tech “smart city” developments with a wide use of alternative energy sources, optimum consumption of resources, green transport, as well as compliance with green economy principles.
According to the available parameters, the capacity of the infrastructure will be designed for 500 thousand permanent residents. Given the possibility of exporting services, the reserve capacity will reach up to 700 thousand. Approximate terms of implementation are from 7 to 10 years.
“Achievement of goals promises attraction of significant volume of investments in development of all branches of economy; we expect creation of new jobs, as well as creation of demand for domestic building materials, foods and services,” author of the project Ruslan Akmataliev said.
The construction site would be above the village of Toru-Aigyr, 15 kilometres away of Balykchy.
Despite the attempts of the authorities to make the “Asman” project realistic as soon as possible, and their statements that it was highly rated not only domestically, but also by foreign experts, the directorate has so problems. We can see them in the fact that there were three leaders in the city administration for six months: Abai Alymkulov, then notorious entrepreneur suspected in corruption Timur Faiziev and, finally, from April 2022, Ruslan Akmataliev, the author of the project.
It should be noted that the appointment of Timur Faiziev as director of the Asman General Directorate has left everyone perplexed. In May 2021, a criminal case was initiated against him. He was suspected of complicity in corruption in the acquisition of land in the territory of Bishkek, as well as in illegal construction. The entrepreneur was even issued a wanted notice, and the court ordered his detention in the detention centre 1 in the city in absentia. Later, the judicial restraint was changed to a written undertaking not to leave the place, the criminal case was closed, and in early 2022 he was appointed the head of the Asman project.
The project promotion strategy also points to problems and apparent differences in understanding of the project. After the construction of a new city at Issyk-Kul was first announced on social media and on the government website, the project was freely available online, but today the Instagram account of the project is empty. The only thing left after the mega project is a banner with the word: Soon.
Domestic urbanists are generally not against the project as an idea, but they doubt its implementation, and the need to build a new city. First, there is an opinion that the project does not take into account the peculiarities of the Republic’s terrain. Second, the emergence of a large city with a population of 500,000 residents can seriously damage the ecology of the region, and third, the question of employment of the population of Asman remains open.
The city will die out in eight months
According to Kubatbek Rakhimov, executive director of the Centre of Strategic Decisions “Applikata”, the creation of a modern urbanised settlement, whose general goal is to develop the region, is good in terms of economic theory. But we need to understand the purpose of the city for it to be justified and paid back.
“The first type of viability of the city is the capital city, or rather, when it is moved. An example of a successful move can be considered Nur-Sultan. Move of the capital from Almaty, overburdened in all respects, became a justified step. Today Nur-Sultan is a million city. It lives its life, with its own culture, urban planning, science, etc. Similar successful examples are available in Brazil, India, and other countries,” Rakhimov said.
Speaking of the city of Asman, today we are not motivated for moving the capital there. But perhaps it is implied, the expert said. According to Rakhimov, another motivation for the construction of the city is the construction of industrial settlements.
“This is what the Chinese do, for example, in the nearest city to Kyrgyzstan – in Kashgar. [… ] They have a global plan to cover this area to reach six million of population there. And accordingly, a new Kashgar is being built around this industrial zone. First, factories, hostels, and then houses will be built, all the necessary social infrastructure, etc. will be there. So, the question is: What is the operational plan of the city of Asman?” Rakhimov said.
There is still no answer to this question about the future city of Asman. To develop industry means to give up on the idea of sustainability. In addition, the region already has the Kumtor field, whose development has led to quite serious environmental problems. Whether the damage caused by gold mining will ever be mitigated remains to be seen.
Animal breeding is also detrimental to the region: the increase in livestock is already leading to the degradation of pastures and the destruction of natural habitats near the lake.
But, according to a recent interview with Ruslan Akmataliev, the current head of the General Directorate, he plans to stake on tourism.
“If we give an opportunity here, all Kyrgyz people will return to our country to work here. Europe is already all built up, they have no place to build. And we have free land, we will take the best from all over the world – the most advanced technologies. We will have the newest hospitals, we will have medical tourism, and the Kyrgyz people will not have to go to Turkey, India or Israel for treatment. People will come to us because we have tremendous recreational facilities here and it’s just a perfect rehabilitation place after surgery,” Akmataliev said to Kaktus.media.
However, the season at Lake Issyk-Kul can be stretched for four months maximum, so the tourist industry is unlikely to become a panacea – for the city will die out in the remaining eight months. And, of course, not a single person will want to want to live in a sustainable city where there is no way to earn money.
“Theoretically, we can assume that there are some migrants working in Russia who have earned tens of thousands of dollars, who would not mind buying some property at Issyk-Kul. But these are only suggestions, at least I have not seen such researches,” Rakhimov said.
But, in his opinion, those people who work in Russia, either stay in the Russian Federation and invest in Russian real estate, or invest in the place of birth, where their relatives live. Or even in the “rubber” Bishkek – it can contain 500 thousand more people.
“Given what we are told today, it follows that we build the city for the sake of housing. For me as an economist it is important who and how will pay for their living in the city. That is, who is this resident of Asman? What do they do for a living? When we make up a portrait of the person, it will be much easier to understand,” Rakhimov said.
In his opinion, Asman would be more rather “extended” along the Issyk-Kul ring. This 20 billion dollars could be used to build 20-30 facilities near the lake with port structures along the coast. It would, first, evenly distribute the million of people and, second, reduce the burden on the environment.
“Twenty settlements with modern treatment facilities around the lake are not as dangerous as the pin load of half a million city in one place. We will have to build very expensive sewage treatment plants there if we want to preserve the ecology of the lake and the biosphere reserve of Issyk-Kul,” the expert said.
In the lakeside, it would be logical to create an analogue of Las Vegas. Organising a local gambling zone in Issyk-Kul region would attract investments and tackle the problem of local employment. However, it is doubtful that gambling industry can provide jobs to half a million people. But the potential is that local and republican budgets will receive taxes and other payments all year round, comparable to those that could be paid by large-scale industry.
The republican authorities have apparently made this conclusion. Discussions are under way to reopen gambling venues in the country. Issyk-Kul region is considered as a place for casinos.
In fact, gambling was banned in Kyrgyzstan in 2011. Back then, the current president and head of the Cabinet of Ministers, who were members of parliament then, voted for closing of casinos. Time has apparently forced them to change their position on the matter.
Mega projects are bad ideas
In general, history shows that mega projects are very bad ideas. The project of Tashkul Keriksizov, Cultural Centre “Rukh Ordo”, has become quite successful and sustainable. It works up to now. And his second project – a huge centre “Aalam Ordo” – is located on the southern shore of Issyk-Kul. The oligarch started its construction in 2007, but did not have time to complete it. Rumour has it that Keriksizov invested about 1 million dollars in it. Now the complex, which was made up as the “Centre of Spirituality and Science”, is slowly and surely is being destroyed.
Another useless investment was the construction of a racetrack in Cholpon-Ata. The racetrack for 10 thousand visitors and the sports and recreation complex has been the first major infrastructure project for Cholpon-Ata for a long time. Despite its investment, it has been empty since the last Nomad Games in 2018.
In general, the city of Asman is very likely to become the most large-scale stillborn mega project of Issyk-Kul.
If the authors of this idea want so much to see the emergence of sustainable settlements in the region, we could start by trying to turn one of the existing villages into such a settlement. We could build appropriate infrastructure, arrange waste recycling, organise effective sewage treatment systems. Such transformations would undoubtedly require more resources, but not 20 billion dollars.
Asman poses more risks rather than benefits to Issyk-Kul
“We need to treat carefully and with caution everything that concerns construction in the Issyk-Kul basin, near Lake Issyk-Kul. As we know, over 80 tributaries flow into Lake Issyk-Kul, and no river flows out. And no matter how romantic we call the lake as the pearl, but in terms of geology, this is a drainage lake. All the contamination that exists in the Issyk-Kul basin will sooner or later get into the lake because the lake is at the bottom, and all the infrastructure is located upstream. You cannot cheat physics. Therefore, this project should get close attention,” independent environmental expert Dmitry Vetoshkin said.
According to him, today Kyrgyzstan has no proper inspection and enough equipment to do quality environmental monitoring. We have several environmental risks.
“I don’t say problems because we can respond to problems. I mean when there’s a problem, we can do at least something about it. And we cannot perceive risks that are not immediately felt and have a longer period of consequences, especially slow, long-term risks. And the first thing here is, of course, a question of drainage. Today we have such a robust household chemistry that no sewage treatment facility can treat. I do not think the state has the resources to monitor the quality of household chemicals, individual chemicals, to prevent them from getting into the lake. The same applies to organic chemicals. Although we can cope with the organic chemicals, but how can we clean the drainage from chemicals in such a densely populated city?” the ecologist said.
The second risk is the energy. How many resources are available to make the territory fully autonomous?
“I am not speaking about wind farms because despite the fact that Balykchy has some abrupt winds, there are no stable winds there because the area is far from the ocean,” Vetoshkin said.
The third one is the question of waste recycling despite the sorting yard presence. The question is where the resources from waste recycling will go as the transport logistics is quite large and how profitable it will be to do waste recycling outside the Issyk-Kul basin.
“It is important to understand that our country is a party to the Ramsar Convention “On Wetlands”*. In particular, the coastal zone in the Balykchy area is a place of either transit or wintering of a very large variety of wetland birds. It seems that we should not think about birds, but this is not our case. This is the area of the global migration of migratory birds. These are the types of global diversity,” Dmitry Vetoshkin said.
The Convention on Wetlands was adopted on February 2, 1971 in Ramsar, Iran. This is the first global treaty dedicated entirely to one type of ecosystems. Kyrgyzstan joined the Convention in 2001. At the time of joining, the wetland of Lake Issyk-Kul was added to the list, mainly as a habitat for waterfowl. Therefore, it was given the status of Ramsar site.
In accordance with the provisions of the Convention, Kyrgyzstan has undertaken to protect, manage, investigate wetlands, rationalise their use, create natural reserves for waterfowl, protect the territory of their original habitat, develop and implement joint policies aimed at the development of both the lands and associated flora and fauna.
In this case, the term “rational use” means the use of this type of land for the benefit of all humanity, allowing to ensure the preservation of all natural features and qualities of the ecosystem.
The Issyk-Kul ecosystem is vulnerable not only because the lake is closed, oligohaline, but it is also low vital. It has a very poor and meagre biodiversity that cannot process organic matter. Therefore, even the slightest disturbance in terms of integrity of the biosphere territory of Issyk-Kul may affect the quality of the lake. And if Issyk-Kul turns into a swamp, it is not even a matter of environmental disaster, but of the social catastrophe. The transparency of Lake Issyk-Kul provides residents of the whole region. If it becomes a swamp, the big question is whether it will still be able to provide the same socio-economic indicators as it does now.