Experts taking part in the country discussion “President’s message: Is there a potential in the reforms?” organised by CABAR.asia think that the initiatives of the authorities of Kazakhstan are not clear, and on closer examination they seem like an attempt to cover the existing political regime by pseudoreforms.
Two months passed after Kasym-Zhomart Tokayev delivered his annual message to the people of Kazakhstan in March 2022. For example, some of the president’s assignments, namely to establish new regions, have already become more or less tangible. Another part – amendments to the election law, the status of the head of state and other amendments – has been put to the nationwide referendum. It will be held in Kazakhstan on June 5, where the citizens are invited to support the package of amendments, or say no to all of the amendments.
In this pile of news and initiatives of the authorities, it is very difficult to get lost and forget how it all started and what the state money would be spend on.
National consciously unconscious
Meanwhile, Kamila Smagulova, expert of the analytics school CABAR.asia, researcher of PaperLab, thinks that a whole pile of issues is hiding behind the beautiful wrapper and the initiative that is heart-warming for many Kazakhstanis on the new division of Kazakhstan into regions. The main issue is the lack of financial stability in the newly created regions.
“The key enterprises, namely in the new Abai region, will remain in East Kazakhstan region. Speaking of Zhetysu region, it has factories and industrial plants that will fund the budget. But speaking of the establishment of Ulytau region, we cannot ignore the rather deplorable state of the town of Zhezkazgan, which will be the regional centre,” the expert said.
Moreover, according to Kamila Smagulova, the authorities have played on the patriotic feelings and national identity of Kazakhstanis.
“The national identity of Kazakhstanis is emerging now and such names as “Abai region” play on our emotions and we like it. However, the question of funding of the new regions is still open,” she said.
It should be noted that lately top officials often say about the importance of building the united society, but the country lacks some clear scenarios. Kamila Smagulova offers to start the process of nation building from answering the simple question, “Who are we: Kazakhs or Kazakhstanis?”
As long as there is no clear answer to that question, the expert thinks that the creation of these three regions with those names and regional centres is just an attempt to flirt with the nation and to have the audience more loyal to the actions of the authorities.
“Every year we have a growing percentage of emerging state nation against other nations. And the significance of Alash-Orda ideas is growing in the society. Therefore, it is very important for the citizens to create the regional centre in Semei, a town that used to be the capital of Alash-Orda. Ulytau is also a symbolical object. We know that the ulus of Dzhuchi was here, and we should not forget the role of Zhetysu in our history. All other questions go by the wayside,” Smagulova said.
But how long will this flirt between the authorities and the people take? Sooner or later all unsolved questions will become so critical that they won’t be solved only by calling upon the national pride.
“The most wonderful thing is whether Kazakhstan has any strategy of territorial development. The relevant document was developed in 2006, but became inoperative in 2011. Is there any other document to replace it? There was a forecast scheme of territorial and spatial development until 2020. But I don’t know any other documents,” the researcher reminded about one of the key moments of the spatial development of Kazakhstan.
Old songs in a new style
Yelena Shvetsova, expert in election law and co-founder of “Erkindik Kanaty” Public Foundation, sees some kind of flirting with the society in the president’s rhetoric.
“Many questions voiced in the message were asked by the society. For example, last year we with our partners held a research and studied the previous reform in the election law. We processed 1,200 questionnaires, and 50 per cent of respondents thought that the procedure of registration of new political parties should be simplified, and 52 per cent thought that independent candidates should be allowed, and 43 per cent wanted to simplify the procedure of registration for presidential candidates. Many citizens welcomed the president’s message enthusiastically. However, it is unclear how these initiatives would be implemented,” she said.
According to Shvetsova, Tokayev has repeatedly said that Kazakhstan does not need reforms for the sake of reforms. However, in practice the state machine continues to move along the well-known path and generate a bunch of reforms with no practical value.
“If we look at the first reform – amendments to the Constitution – we’ll see the old approach there. The president’s opinion turns into a law without public discussions. It’s great to have the referendum. But the bad thing about it is that it was scheduled by the president, without discussion with the civil society,” Yelena Shvetsova made an example of the simulation of furious activity.
The situation gets worse because if we take a closer look at the suggested amendments to the Constitution, we’ll see that there would be no promised profound changes in fact. We still have many standards and powers of the same persons. And in some cases, experts have the impression that there is an attempt to tighten the screws even more under the guise of liberalisation.
“As to the legislative regulation of observers’ performance during elections, we have a respective article in the law “On elections.” I would not change anything and only expand the powers of observers so that they could not only observe the ballot stations, but also watch the performance of the election commission at the vote counting stage. The remark of inadmissibility of foreign funding raises many questions. Will there be any excesses? For example, international missions may organise some snacks and water for observers who stay at polling stations all day long. How will this assistance be perceived?” Shvetsova commented on only one aspect of suggested amendments.
“Tokayev follows the steps of Nazarbayev”
Zauresh Battalova, president of the parliamentary system development foundation in Kazakhstan, said that the initiatives suggested by the president of Kazakhstan are nothing but an attempt to shut eyes of the activists and leave the political system of the country unchanged.
“Few Kazakhstanis belong to the parties and once the parliament started elections under party lists, the interests of the major part of the society are never represented in the parliament. Now the point is to elect 30 per cent of deputies under the majority system. How can they represent the interests of all independent candidates? There’s no way they can do it,” Battalova said.
According to her, this is a standard practice of the authorities of Kazakhstan.
“Quotas for young people and women are also a deception. They said that young people and women should come to the parliament. What did they do in fact? They made deputies out of young women. In fact, they organised a harem. Whereas strong and aged female deputies who really worked – strong and aged female deputies who did work – Bychkova, Nikitinskaia and others – had to leave,” Battalova said.
According to the expert, if Tokayev does really want to change the state of affairs in Kazakhstan, he should have officially stated his intention not to run for the second presidential term, suspended the amendments to the Constitution, and sit down to talk with the civil society and experts in order to write a new, more justified Constitution. However, it seems more like the preparation to the new presidential campaign.
“By amending the Constitution, President Tokayev follows Nursultan Nazarbayev. What did Nazarbayev do when he came to power? We had the parliamentary republic then and the president had to come to the parliament and report back to it. In 1995, to get rid of this duty, Nazarbayev amended the Constitution. It’s different time now. The new Constitution is too tough for Tokayev, so he amends it and in fact comes back to the 1995 version of it,” Zauresh Battalova said.
If you want to go to politics – go!
Young activists are the main participants of the discussion. The question that worried them most was how to express their position in the society where such ambitious reforms have been officially voiced, yet have no ground.
“We should start working today. We don’t need to wait for some amendments and comfortable laws. No! We need to go to all working groups and take part in discussions trying to promote our ideas. Thus, you will start shaping public opinion, brainwashing the parliamentarians, and developing your skills of persisting in your stand,” Zauresh Battalova advised to the young people.
The president of the Parliamentary System Development Fund in Kazakhstan is confident that today’s parliamentarians whose law approval procedure is well developed need civil society experts who could justify properly the significance of every amendment, risk of any governmental initiative.
According to Zauresh Battalova, the society of Kazakhstan does not trust the ruling party, other active parties, or new political unions. Civil activism could be more effective in these circumstances.
“Do not be afraid of being checked! You just need to work honestly. And you should understand that you are being watched always and everywhere. Therefore, mind your behaviour during talks. Even at home, take care of your social circle and don’t be afraid once you are in the public politics,” she advised to young activists.
Main photo: exk.kz