The war between Russia and Ukraine has broken the trend of departure of ethnic Russians from Kazakhstan to their historical homeland. The number of those changing their place of residence has dropped sharply. But experts say it is a temporary lull.
In the 1990s, following the collapse of the Soviet Union, mass immigration from Kazakhstan began. Over a million people left the country in 1996-2000. The annual outflow could reach almost 300 thousand people (299.5 thousand in 1997).
The outflow of people decreased in the following years. Every year in the 2010s, 20-40 thousand people were leaving. The biggest contribution to immigration was made by the seven regions sharing the border with Russia because of the high proportion of Russians in the population structure. In early 2022, a proportion of citizens with Russian ethnic background in these regions was from one third to one half of all population (except for Atyrau region on the border with Russia. Here the proportion of Slavs was always low, so the region was not included into the review).
In the last decade, one to four thousand people left the said regions every year. The reasons for immigration were various: psychological – finding people “close in spirit”, or the feeling of being underprivileged in the ‘country of origin’; economic – opportunity to earn more and get education in Russia, special allowances paid upon child birth, or to those who settle in Siberia and Far East.
However, the trend “broke” sharply three years ago – the outflow declined significantly. In 2019, 31 thousand people relocated from Kazakhstan, and in 2020, only 19 thousand. In some border regions, the decline was almost two-fold.
The reason is obvious – the COVID-19 pandemic followed by the mass lockdown in Kazakhstan and Russia, restrictions on movements between the countries. Life began to return to normal only at the end of 2021: borders were opened, transportation resumed. But, the 2022 figures fell down instead of getting back to the pre-pandemic level: only 14.8 thousand left the country (31.1 thousand in 2021).
How could the war at the far border with the neighbouring country discourage locals from leaving Kazakhstan?
“The sanctions (against Russia – Editor), rise in prices and mobilisation could be the main reasons for the change in the immigration trend,” said Khalida Azhigulova, lawyer-sociologist, associated professor of law of the Eurasian Technological University.
Olga Simakova, sociologist, coordinator of projects of the public foundation “Strategy”, also thinks that the possible reason for the sharp change in the trend was the conflict between Russia and Ukraine. However, according to her, this is a lull similar to the pandemic period, “Since 2014, we could witness the steady growth of immigration, which was interrupted in 2020 due to the pandemic and the following isolation of countries. And in a year it became obvious that immigration attitudes did not go anywhere, but were just suspended until more favourable time, which was used by 33 thousand people in 2021.”
According to the expert, the decline in relocations to Russia in 2022 was situational in nature.
“If we look at immigration to other countries such as Germany, United States, Uzbekistan or Canada, we’ll see that immigration pace was the same. The continuing demand for Russian universities among Kazakhstan-based graduates also gives evidence of the situational nature of immigration decline,” Simakova said.
What does it mean for future? According to Khalida Azhigulova, migration attitudes among Kazakhstan-based citizens of Russian ethnic background will be declining amid the war in Ukraine and its consequences in the next following years. It will take a long time for the economy and social sphere of Russia to recover, even after the end of the war.
Besides, according to the expert, returning combatants in Russia already have a high rate of violence in the society and families because of the post-war syndrome. “Therefore, it will be generally unsafe and irrational to relocate to Russia for permanent residence at least in the next decade,” Azhigulova said.
Olga Simakova reminds that immigration is a very serious step and potential immigrants can make decisions on relocation as long as they want to.
“Any changes both in the country of origin and in the host country can affect the speed of such decision-making. Now, like in 2020, many postponed their decision on relocation and took a wait-and-see attitude. I am sure that we won’t witness any sharp change in preferences over a country for permanent residence,” Simakova said.