During the analytical expert meeting organized by CABAR.asia on 31 October, experts from Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan and Kazakhstan discussed the prospects and consequences of the construction of the Kushtepa Canal on the transboundary Amu Darya River by the Afghan government, especially its impact on water supply in the downstream countries of the Amu Darya River, Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan.
The meeting was attended by Vadim Sokolov, Head of Agency of the International Fund for Saving the Aral Sea from Uzbekistan, Bulat Yesekin, an expert on eco-politics, water resources and sustainable development from Kazakhstan, Homidjon Orifov, an expert on energy and water use from Tajikistan and Ryskul Usubaliev, a researcher on high mountain climate, glacier melt and water resources from Kyrgyzstan.
The Afghan government, the Taliban (an organization recognized as a terrorist organization in many countries, including Central Asia), began construction of the canal back in March 2022. It will be 285 km long, 100 m wide, 8.5 m deep. According to media reports, 100 km has already been developed. With its help it is planned to irrigate more than 500 thousand hectares in three northern provinces of Afghanistan, Balkh, Jawzjan and Faryab, and provide jobs for about 250 thousand people.
The construction of a canal on the transboundary Amu Darya River in Afghanistan has caused serious concern in Central Asian countries, especially those located in the lower reaches of the river. The countries could lose up to 15% of irrigation water from the region’s main river.
The concern is well-founded, given global climate change, frequent droughts and a marked decline in water levels in transboundary rivers, experts said.
“If the construction plans are realized, the total water withdrawal from the Amu Darya may amount to 6 to 10 cubic kilometers of water per year – that is more than 15 percent of the current river flow. Naturally, this will affect all downstream areas, primarily Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan,” Vadim Sokolov said.
Climate change will reduce the Amu Darya’s water resources by about 10 percent in the next 15-20 years. Plus Afghanistan, which will start taking more. Then we will practically have to forget about the water inflow, which is needed to maintain the ecosystem in the region, he said.
“The worst thing is that at the end of the Amu Darya riverbed is the Southern Aral. Now only its western side is preserved. It is shoaling, in just nine months of this year, the water level in the Western Aral has fallen by 60 centimeters. The reservoirs located in this area have been under-receiving water for the past seven years and are gradually degrading. The construction of the Afghan canal will only aggravate the situation,” he said.
Of course, Afghanistan has a full right to take water from the Amu Darya, but the problem is that it has not signed international agreements to which all Central Asian states are parties. Still, it is desirable to have legally substantiated documents and try to prescribe mutually beneficial conditions. All Central Asian countries and the Afghan side should work on this. Uzbekistan has already started moving in this direction. In 2023, our country’s delegation visited Afghanistan twice, Sokolov said.
Afghanistan’s interests should be taken into account, Tajikistan expert Homidjon Orifov said, because the country is in a situation where they don’t care about environmental problems.
In his opinion, Afghanistan has the right to take as much water as it needs.
“The country is practically a disaster now: the consequences of war, the economic blockade, people lack even food. We talk about the environmental consequences for the region, we cite the Aral Sea as an example. But it was not the Afghans who dried it up,” he said.
He believes that it is necessary to negotiate water withdrawal conditions at the state level. Especially for those countries that are most affected.
“And for that matter, it is necessary to reduce the appetites that appeared during the development of Amudarya waters. If the current climatic conditions persist, this resource will certainly become less. And those who have been taking the most of it should start saving money and adopt water-saving technologies. I don’t see any other way out,” Orifov said.
“We are talking about global processes; this is also important. But the fact is that Central Asian countries are on different social levels with Afghanistan. They have some pressing problems, we have others. They need to feed people, distract them from growing poppies on opium plantations. Afghans are not interested in general discussions about ecological consequences, they need water and they will take it whether we want it or not. That is why we need to negotiate. Let’s proceed from reality and current needs rather than general philosophical arguments,” said Homidjon Orifov.
It is necessary to look at the problems of changing water balance more broadly. This is a problem of the whole region and it should be solved jointly, Bulat Yesekin believes.
“Central Asia is a single water basin, we live in one house, in one ecosystem. And local violations will lead to problems in the whole region. Water scarcity will arise – this is our main problem! Related conflicts – food shortages, hunger, migration, disease,” he said.
Water use policies in all Central Asian countries need to be completely revised, Yesekin emphasized. Because all of the scientists’ predictions on climate change are not keeping up with the processes taking place on the planet, and the situation is deteriorating faster than they previously predicted.
“In Kyrgyzstan, they are increasing the construction of hydroelectric power plants, Kazakhstan is increasing the number of reservoirs, and everyone thinks that they will adapt to climate change in the future. No, by doing so we, on the contrary, worsen the situation, affect the natural processes that support life in the region and on the planet. We need to jointly decide how to survive under conditions of limited water resources and climate change,” Yesekin said.
His words were echoed by Ryskul Usubaliyev, an expert from Kyrgyzstan, who said that glaciers feeding large rivers in upstream countries are melting faster than predicted.
Bulat Yesekin believes that there are physical limitations related to the humanitarian limits of our planet. Its possibilities are exhausted.
“You can’t dig a canal – these are the last roots that sustain life in our region,” he said.
He believes that all Central Asian countries and Afghanistan need to sit down at the negotiating table, to see how water resources are shrinking, to think how to use them most efficiently, and to share them jointly, on an equitable basis, among the countries.
“It is better this way than everyone digging canals, building reservoirs, dams and dikes, thereby worsening the overall situation. When there is no water, it is necessary to move from water sharing to joint water use,” he said.
Vadim Sokolov believes that all countries in the region need to strengthen their actions on transition to new technologies in agriculture and water conservation.
“I agree that it is time for our countries to completely change their attitude and approaches to water resources. But how exactly is a big question. We need new ways of development, I would say, a revolution in agriculture and food security. Otherwise, we will lead ourselves to a dead end,” Vadim Sokolov said.
You can watch the full panel discussion here: