On March 31, the experts discussed the consequences Tajikistan can expect from the military conflict in Ukraine at the meeting in the IWPR office in Tajikistan.
The political scientists, economists, digital communications experts, and journalists participated in this meeting. His Excellency Ambassador Extraordinary and Plenipotentiary of the United Kingdom to Tajikistan Timothy Marschall Jones and Embassy representatives also joined the meeting.
During the meeting, the speakers discussed the issues of political and economic impact, as well as the polarisation of society in Tajikistan due to the different perceptions of the conflict, digital security issues, and the consequences that Tajik labour migrants in Russia and Tajikistan residents can face.
In addition, the meeting participants provided their recommendations on how Tajikistan can adapt to such conditions and overcome the consequences of the crisis.
Parviz Mullojanov, an expert in political science and conflict resolution studies, analysed the impact of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict on the political situation in Tajikistan. He outlined three possible scenarios for the further development of events in Ukraine and the risks for the political situation in Tajikistan.
- The best-case scenario is the achievement of an agreement between Russia and Ukraine within the next two months; then, most of the sanctions will be lifted and the situation will become as it was before the outbreak of the conflict.
- The actual freezing of the conflict and the beginning of a low-intensity conflict, in which the parts of Ukraine will be under Russian control de facto. In such a situation, according to him, the sanctions will remain in place, but will not be tightened.
- The continuation of a full-scale war, which can last a very long time. As a result, sanctions from the Western and developed countries of the world will be tightened drastically.
According to Mullojanov, the most likely scenario is the second one. The sanctions will not be lifted. Then, the CIS countries, including Tajikistan, will have to prepare for further negative consequences, especially given the country’s dependence on Russia.
What political consequences can Tajikistan expect in this case? According to him, the country’s authorities can decide to strengthen control over the country’s information sphere.
“They will strengthen control over social networks, media, bloggers, and scientists. The authorities will monitor everything that is published both at home and abroad. The criticism will be perceived as interference in internal political affairs or as opposition activity,” said Parviz Mullojanov.
Mullojanov added that one can expect Russian ‘disengagement’ with Central Asia due to security issues. After all, all attention will be drawn to Ukraine. China, in such a situation, may see the possibilities to strengthen its influence in the region both economically and politically, including the military-political influence.
Doctor of Economics Khojimuhammad Umarov spoke about the impact of the military conflict in Ukraine on the economy and focused the attention on the great economic dependence of Tajikistan on both Russia and Ukraine.
“Exports from Tajikistan to both countries have always been at a low level, many times inferior to imports. Over the past four years, trade turnover with Russia has reached $4 billion. Now, since much of the Tajik economy depends on Russia, the consequences can be very negative,” he said.
In particular, according to Umarov, one of the main threats comes from the fact that many Tajik banks have correspondent accounts in Russia and process all transactions to other banks through them. To prevent possible consequences for the banking system, it is necessary to take urgent measures.
“Now it is necessary to start negotiations with China, India, Singapore, Malaysia, and Turkey on the issue of banking cooperation as soon as possible to diversify correspondent banks,” said Khojimuhammad Umarov.
According to Professor Umarov, other areas of the economy also require diversification. This applies to sugar and dairy industries, military equipment, technologies for small chemical manufacturers, and the wood industry.
Umarov mentioned China, Turkey, Pakistan, and Brazil as possible partners in these areas.
According to Umarov, certain items of import from Russia can be replaced by products made in Tajikistan, in particular, this applies to agriculture.
In general, Umarov’s recommended the government of Tajikistan to look for new opportunities in the global market to reduce economic dependence on Russia; this should be done urgently.
Asomiddin Atoev, an expert in digital and communication technologies, spoke about ensuring digital security. The main threat to the digital sector of Tajikistan comes from the country’s dependence on transnational communication lines passing through Russia.
The internal digital infrastructure of Tajikistan is vulnerable to many factors. One of these factors, according to Atoev, is the Unified Communications Switching Centre (USC), which, in fact, distributes all Internet traffic in the country.
“When all digital systems in a country are provided with a single available data stream, there is a high risk that the system could go down due to just one cyberattack on this Switching Centre,” he said.
Therefore, Atoev believes that it is necessary to stop using the USC to strengthen the digital infrastructure in Tajikistan.
An independent journalist and creator of one of the largest communities on the Tajik Facebook segment Rajabi Mirzo spoke about how the events in Ukraine split Tajik social media users into two camps: those supporting Russia’s actions and those opposing them.
According to his observations, most people who support Russian aggression against Ukraine either were born in Soviet times, are labour migrants and members of their families, or people close to the government.
In his speech, he provided examples of the most common opinions: “Russia, Western countries, and Ukraine had military interests but no one expected an escalation”, “We are allies of Russia in many organisations”, and “Luhansk and Donetsk, where Russians mostly live, were under constant pressure, under fire. The people’s houses were destroyed but until yesterday, they did not show it to the international community”.
Meanwhile, most Tajik citizens who live or study in Western countries and citizens employed by international organisations in Tajikistan condemn Russia’s actions, he noted.
However, the overall picture of public opinion may change.
“After all, pro-Russian sentiment in Tajikistan has reached a high level but it is expected that in the medium term, such sentiments will fade away as Russian ideological tools are defeated in the confrontation with Western information channels,” Rajab Mirzo said.
Another expert representing “Zerkalo” Centre for Sociological Research Kahramon Bakozoda spoke about the risks and impact of the military conflict on the situation of Tajik labour migrants in Russia.
According to him, the impact of the military conflict in Ukraine on the labour migrants’ status will be insignificant. Bakozoda highlighted that the previous crises showed that Russia remained the main destination for labour migration from Tajikistan. He believes that the flow of migrants will not change significantly.
The experts developed several recommendations for overcoming the negative impact of the conflict on Tajikistan. The main risks still threaten the country’s economy, according to them.
It is necessary to abandon the institute of state unitary enterprises to create a more flexible economy. However, even in this case, according to them, the previously proposed diversification of trade relations with the countries of the world will take about 15-20 years.
They suggested setting a course for the de-bureaucratisation of business, which would make it more attractive for both investors and potential entrepreneurs.
The experts also highlighted that in case of a mass return of labour migrants to Tajikistan, the country’s authorities should have a program prepared for their reception and assistance, especially in regions with a high unemployment rate.