The glaciologists from Central Asian countries believe that the problem of glacial melting requires an integrated and coordinated approach with the participation of all stakeholders in the Central Asian region. Without a unified adaptation system for the use of snow and ice resources and a strategy for the rational use of water from transboundary rivers, the negative impact of glacier melting will worsen.
“Melting Glaciers in Central Asian Countries. Is It Possible to Pause the Process?” was the title of the discussion held by glaciologists from 4 countries of Central Asia during an expert meeting on the CABAR.asia analytical platform.
The experts from Kazakhstan were Igor Seversky, Academician of the National Academy of Sciences of the Republic of Kazakhstan, Doctor of Geographical Sciences, Professor, Scientific Director of the Central Asian Regional Glaciological Centre as a category 2 Centre under the auspices of UNESCO, as well as Vassiliy Kapitsa, Senior Researcher, Acting Head of the Laboratory of High-Mountain Geocreology of this Centre. Tajikistan was represented by Academician, Professor Abdulhamid Kayumov, Director of the Centre for Glacier Research of the National Academy of Sciences of Tajikistan. From Uzbekistan, it was the Head of the Centre for Glacial Geology of the Republic of Uzbekistan, PhD in Geological and Mineralogical Sciences, Maxim Petrov.
The discussion concentrated on the problems of melting glaciers and the impact of these processes on ecosystems in the region and the planet as a whole.
Scientists spoke about the latest research on glaciers in their countries, about the main problems, prospects, and forecasts in this area, and also proposed their recommendations on how to reduce the risks from the negative impact of melting glaciers in Central Asia due to global climate change.
Academician Igor Seversky said that the problem of shrinking glaciers in the mountains of Central Asia is one of the most serious and alarming not only for the Central Asian countries but for the whole world. About half of the world’s population depends on the mountain glacier runoff in river basins. The forecasts of climate change and the corresponding effect on glaciation are so alarming that even the United Nations, responding to the initiative of the government of Tajikistan, declared next year the Year of Glacier Conservation. Such attention to the problem is not accidental.
“In the region, melted glacial waters comprise up to 50% of the glacial runoff, that is, the annual runoff during the vegetative season. This is the resource base prevailing in the region among the irrigated agriculture system. Exactly this part of the glacial runoff, that is, the part of the annual runoff during the vegetative season, is decreasing most rapidly. […] This is, perhaps, the most alarming symptom for the region as a whole. If the glaciers disappear, and such a prospect is visible, the entire agricultural system in Kazakhstan will have to be reconsidered. And not only in Kazakhstan but in Central Asia,” said Seversky.
Until the end of the 1960s, the glaciers of the entire Central Asian region, and not only the region but the world as a whole, remained in a more or less stable state. However, in the early 1970s, there was a sharp acceleration in the rate of degradation. Conventionally, from 1973 to 1978, the winter glacier mass balance decreased by more than three times, the scientist noted.
According to the scientist, the Balkhash glaciation of the Alakol basin is studied the most.
“We have catalogues of glaciers for this territory, unified catalogues of glaciers for 11 time slices. There is nothing like this anywhere in the world. Now, as these data show, the glaciers of Kazakhstan, including the Tuyuksu glacier, where observations have been carried out for more than 60 years, are linearly shrinking. That is, at a constant pace. Since 1975, the rate of their reduction has been constant. […] That is, in general, glaciation not only in the high mountains of Asia but also in the world as a whole, judging by the graphs that we received in the latest report of the global glacier monitoring service, has been shrinking linearly over the past 60 years. That is, with a constant rate of glacial melting. This is, in general, alarming because this is a linear reduction. If they continue to shrink at this rate, the glaciers of Kazakhstan may disappear completely by the end of this century. And not only of Kazakhstan. These are the glaciers of the outer basins, the outer ridges of the mountains of the region,” Seversky said.
He said that they had completed compiling catalogues of glaciers for three Pamir basins. The same pattern of linear reduction of glaciers is observed there as well.
“The rate is different. The reduction of glaciers across the high mountains of Asia, speaking about the entire range, they are shrinking at a rate of 0.11% per year to 0.76% per year. That is, this is a very large range and very large differences in degradation rates. Therefore, if we talk about the time of glaciers disappearance, the last to disappear, if global warming continues, are the glaciers of Tajikistan,” the scientist said.
His colleague Vassiliy Kapitsa provided figures for the rate of glacier reduction. He noted that, for example, the largest glacier in Kazakhstan, the Korzhenevsky glacier, decreased by 5 square kilometres – from 37.5 to 32.8 kilometres, that is, by 13% during the period from 1955 to 2022.
“Well, if we take for example one of the most studied glaciers where we conduct observations, the Tuyuksu Glacier, during the period from 1958 to 2023, it lost almost 37% of its area, decreased from almost 3.2 square kilometres to 2.2 square kilometres. The glacier front has retreated almost 1200 metres. […] Well, the average annual balance for this period was minus 0.42 metres over the entire area of the glacier. Over the entire observation period, the glacier has lost more than 74 million cubic metres in water equivalent, that is, the reduction in mass occurs at a rate of more than 1 million cubic metres per year,” said Vassiliy Kapitsa.
Meanwhile, scientists also noted a positive trend in the replenishment of snow and ice reserves on glaciers in different years during periods of snowy winters.
“Fortunately, after this, starting in the 2000s, a slow process began, so to speak, a positive trend in this process. That is, snow reserves, winter snow reserves, including on glaciers, began to gradually increase. This, in general, is encouraging,” said Igor Seversky.
Vassiliy Kapitsa also reported that during the period of glaciological observations, there was a positive balance on the Tuyuksu glacier only 15 times.
“However, as Igor Seversky noted, we now see a tendency of winter balance increase and over the past 17 years, a positive balance has been observed 4 times, that is, from the entire series of observations, there is, with the hope of an increase in frequency, positive balance,” he said.
Unlike in Kazakhstan, after the 1990s, glaciological work was completely stopped in Tajikistan, said the Director of the Centre for Glacier Research of the National Academy of Sciences of Tajikistan, Professor Abdulhamid Kayumov.
“Our President had this sustainability initiative, the decade of water sustainability, as well as the fifth initiative on glacier conservation, and our research began to resume a little. However, in general, we have done a lot. First, we prepared a primary map of all glaciers. Now, intensive development and detailing of glaciers is ongoing. I can even specifically say, for example, that we have just prepared such a beautiful atlas of glaciers. […] We used cartography and cataloguing techniques in detail. In general, we succeeded. We are ready to publish 12 volumes,” Kayumov said.
He said that the country is planning to hold a large international congress on glacier problems and invited the participants of this expert meeting to join it.
Abdulhamid Kayumov spoke about the current state of glaciers in Tajikistan and noted that their condition corresponds to the trends that exist in Central Asia and throughout the world, they only differ in volume.
“Even here in Tajikistan, the trends are the same but differ in volume. For example, in the Eastern Pamirs, our primary results showed intense melting of glaciers, degradation, and reduction of the glacier fronts. In the Eastern Pamirs, it is slower than, let’s say, in the Upper Zarafshon. In the Upper Zarafshon, there is indeed a catastrophic decline. One of the signs is a decrease in the glacier fronts, an increase in the number of supraglacial lakes,” Kayumov said.
Their formation led to the 5 outbursts of glacial lakes of the Baralmaz glacier in 2023, he noted.
“Our devices showed that, for example, the outburst lasted only 15 minutes. However, the damage that this caused to the national economy in 15 minutes amounted to 20 million somoni. That is a lot. […] Therefore, glaciers, on the one hand, are a source of drinking water, clean water, and on the other hand, they are dangerous hydrometeorological phenomena and cause enormous damage to the national economy,” said Professor Kayumov.
The Head of the Centre for Glacial Geology of the Republic of Uzbekistan Maxim Petrov, PhD, spoke about the situation in Uzbekistan.
“There are not many glaciers in Uzbekistan but they play a very important role in people’s lives. In low-water years, they form up to 25% of the flow; our colleagues from the Swiss University of Fribourg state even larger figures for Central Asia – up to 60%,” said Maxim Petrov.
He also noted the trend of glaciers shrinking at different rates.
“The rate of shrinking, let’s say, roughly coincides with the average for Central Asia. However, again, on our mountainous periphery, in the western Tian Shan, they are shrinking with less intensity and have decreased by only 20%. In the southwest, on the Kesar Range in the southern Tian Shan, the Surkhandarya glaciers have lost 40% of their area. In Kashkadarya, we have a catastrophic situation – up to 70%,” Petrov said.
The most paradoxical thing is that the number of glaciers is growing but their area is decreasing, that is, larger forms of glaciation break up into smaller ones. “The smaller, remnant forms seem to be more numerous but their area is becoming smaller and smaller,” noted the glaciologist from Uzbekistan.
He predicted different glaciers’ lifespans in his country.
“Based on what I said regarding the different changes in areal characteristics across the territory of Uzbekistan, the natural rates vary because, for example, the basin of Pskem glaciers, which number about 250, has the slowest rate of reduction. Well, we even say… that they will exist to see the XXII century. However, in the Surkhandarya basin, they will last less, that is, we can give them time until the end of the XXI century. This, again, is based on the current rate of reduction. We cannot say how the climate will change by the end of the century. Maybe, something positive will happen suddenly. Well, of course, there are glaciers with even less time left in the Kashkadarya basin. We give them about 80-90 years at the current rate of reduction,” Petrov said.
Scientists spoke about the research carried out in their countries and about the measures being taken now and can be used in the future to reduce the risks of the glaciers shrinking and melting. They also talked about the challenges they faced during research and their achievements.
Academician Seversky said that based on the results they received, they can conclude that the average characteristics of river flow are stable throughout the entire observation period.
Despite the glaciers shrinking, the average characteristics of water flow are stable for the entire observation period. Not only the volumes of runoff are stable but also the annual distribution of runoff. This all allows us to conclude that the incoming part of the water balance of this entire territory, Central Asia, remains stable during the whole observation period, Seversky said.
“There are all these discussions, all these calls like “help! let’s save ourselves! there is not enough water!” There really is not enough water. However, this is not because the flow has decreased, water resources have decreased but because the demand for water has increased. Due to the increase in population, due to the need to develop own industry in each country, own technologies, water-efficient technologies. Because there is no consistency in the use of water resources, each country is trying to solve these problems on its own. It is time to understand that the only way out of the situation is to unite, negotiate, and agree on how to use these joint resources. In fact, all countries of the region are in the same boat when it comes to water security. We are all in the same boat,” he said.
Learn more about the expert recommendations and watch the recording of the meeting here.