The second half of May was a tense period of waiting for the presidential election results not only for Türkiye, but also for Central Asian states. The possible change of the leader of the Republic of Türkiye has made members of the Organisation of Turkic States (OTS) once again assess the value of their political and economic relations with Ankara ruled by one person for 20 years. The reporter of CABAR.asia spoke to political analysts of Central Asian states about it. Even after the convincing victory of Recep Tayyip, we are still interested in what our experts have to say to our question, “Who, if not Erdogan?”
Both supplier and buyer
We should first highlight common interests of Central Asia and Türkiye in order to understand why election in another country can influence or not influence other Asian states. The first one is trade. First, Türkiye is needed for the countries in the region as a major importer of their raw materials. In recent years, many Central Asian states have expanded their exports to Türkiye and find it extremely important to retain such a buyer. Experts started to tell about the possible change of the existing vector of international relations and trade after the first round of election, when opposition candidate Kemal Kilicdaroglu won 44.88 per cent of votes.
Sherali Rizoyon, political analyst of Tajikistan, does not share these concerns. According to the speaker, the outcome of presidential election in Türkiye will not affect the relationships between the country and Central Asian states. He argues it saying that Ankara has been steadily expanding its cooperation with the regional countries for the last 30 years and is unlikely to abandon this direction as it has achieved great results in it.
According to national statistical services of Central Asian countries, the share of trade turnover of Türkiye in foreign trade of particular states is rather high – 4.7 per cent in Kazakhstan and Tajikistan, 5.3 per cent in Kyrgyzstan and 6.4 per cent in Uzbekistan. We could not find open data on the share of Türkiye in foreign trade of Turkmenistan.
“Ankara has intensified relations with Central Asia since 2020. Türkiye is called a country that will become a significant partner of our regional states in near future and will compete with Russia and China. Last year, Tajikistan had trade relations with 109 countries of the world. And Türkiye became one of five main trade partners of Dushanbe, its share in exports is 7.7 per cent, in imports – 3.3 per cent. We import mainly industrial goods from the Republic of Türkiye to our country,” said Sherali Rizoyon citing official statistical data.
The significance of mutual trade with Türkiye is demonstrated in its dynamics and trade value. Last year, the overall turnover of five Central Asian countries amounted to 12.8 billion dollars, which is 27.6 per cent more than in 2021.
Kazakhstan tops the list by the amount of turnover – in 2022 the countries exchanged goods in the amount of 6.35 billion dollars. It was 54.5 per cent more compared to last year. This increase was mainly due to rising prices of petroleum products, which amounted to over 70 per cent in the Kazakhstan export basket for the Republic of Türkiye. The latter benefited from strong relations with Kazakhstan amid disrupted supply chains in global markets because of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict. For example, Türkiye has increased imports of coal from Kazakhstan by 58 per cent amid energy shortages, according to experts of QazTrade Centre for Trade Policy Development of Kazakhstan.
Last year, other countries of the region, except for Uzbekistan, also increased their trade turnover with Türkiye: Kyrgyzstan by 53.7 per cent, Tajikistan by 23.3 per cent, Turkmenistan by 21.9 per cent. Despite the negative dynamics in trade with Uzbekistan (minus 4.7 per cent), the total turnover between Uzbekistan and Türkiye remains the highest after Kazakhstan – 3.2 billion dollars.
From Turkish to Turkic
The second significant value of relations between Türkiye and Central Asia, which is actively promoted by Recep Erdogan, is the idea of unity of the Turkic peoples. It was the current president of the Republic of Türkiye who initiated transformation of the Cooperation Council into the Organisation of Turkic States (whose members are Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan, Azerbaijan – author’s note). The OTS, which is also known as the “Turkic-speaking EU”, was not just formally renamed. It acquired new value and ideology. In addition to cultural, humanitarian and economic cooperation, the list of tasks was added with elaboration of common positions on foreign political issues, migration, energy, etc.
Four experts in political science of Central Asian states were unanimous in their opinion about the future of OTS in case of change of government in Ankara. Even if Kilicdaroglu, leader of the Republican People’s Party of Türkiye, came to power, the scenario of dissolution of the OTS would be impossible. It contradicts the national interests of both Central Asia and Türkiye.
“OTS has quite a long history. Both the current president of Turkiye and his successor with benefit from membership in the Organisation of Turkic States. I don’t see any signs of a possible dissolution of this entity. Moreover, it has contributed to the promotion of the image of Türkiye on the world stage. And keeping this positive image is its permanent value,” said Uzbek political analyst Farkhod Tolipov.
It’s partly due to OTS, according to the specialist in contemporary geopolitics, that Uzbekistan and Türkiye have come to the new level of their relations. Previously, Uzbekistan suspended its membership in the Forum of Turkic-speaking Countries and when Uzbekistan joined the organisation, it “filled the gap, as the OTS would seem incomplete without such a large state in the Turkic world.” This decision was supported by Ankara. The step that Turkey made towards Uzbekistan helped to establish contacts not only in trade, tourism, education, but also in the field of security, military issues.
“Therefore, it’s not just a bilateral cooperation, but strategic partnership developed between Türkiye and Uzbekistan. This is very important, I would even say we should encourage it,” Farkhod Tolipov said.
We are for predictability
Chinara Esengul, specialist in international relations of Kyrgyzstan, was confident even before the second round results were announced that Erdogan would win “because people would prefer stability of autocracy rather than instability of the democratic path of development, given that the country needs to recover from negative social and economic consequences of immigration from Syria, Covid and the earthquake.”
In the interview to CABAR.asia, the political analyst said that relations between Türkiye and Kyrgyzstan, in particular, and with Central Asia, in general, would be closer due to pan-Turkism in Erdogan’s politics. This is particularly appealing to Turkic-speaking countries. We should not ignore the dependence of Central Asian states on Russia, which affects the nature and dynamics of relations between the region and Ankara.
The political analyst called changes in foreign policy, a turn towards closer ties with the EU and NATO, and obviously more condemning attitude to military actions of Russia as the most possible scenario to our question “What will happen if opposition comes to power in Türkiye?” As to Central Asia, if opposition comes to power, Ankara, according to Esengul, won’t use the identity politics as often as Erdogan does.
According to her colleague, director of the Institute of Strategic Analysis and Forecasting (Kyrgyzstan), Aman Saliev, a part of Türkiye is conservative and will be even more conservative. This trend does not depend on Erdogan or his policy. There is a high demand for conservatism, which will only increase. This is the regional and global tendency, which exists not only in Türkiye, but also in the Middle East, Asia, Europe and United States. Therefore, Erdogan and the person who will support Erdogan’s policy in Türkiye would have even more support, which will increase in future.
The Kyrgyzstan-based political analyst also noted that the future of Türkiye without Erdogan would be limited to finding the balance between West and Russia, which is quite difficult given polarisation among countries. Rapprochement of Türkiye and the United States in case of Kemal Kilicdaroglu’s victory would make Ankara even more loyal than it is now. In this case, it would be naïve to expect consent of western partners to relations with Russia.
Uzbekistan-based political analyst Farkhod Tolipov has a different opinion. According to him, the turn in Türkiye’s foreign policy towards West does not exclude or contradict friendly relations between Ankara and Central Asia. Moreover, regional countries have good relations with the European Union and the United States. For example, Uzbekistan has strategic partnership agreements with the United States and EU. Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and other Central Asian states retain close trade and economic ties with Europe.
Main photo: tccb.gov.tr