How does the war in Ukraine affect the situation in Central Asian and decolonial processes? Experts of all regional countries have discussed the challenges facing Central Asia and ways to solve them for three days.
Central Asian Think Tanks Forum organised by Paperlab Research Centre jointly with the regional analytical centre CAPS Unlock and in partnership with the Institute for War&Peace Reporting (IWPR) and The Guests studio was held in Asana on November 15 to 17.
The war in Ukraine affects the situation in the world, but Central Asia feels its consequences stronger due to close political and economic ties with Russia. All countries of the region have faced price hikes in real property market and upturn in inflation, and receipts from migrants have declined due to the drop in the Russian rouble rate.
Nevertheless, according to the Paperlab research, despite the forecasts, national economies of Central Asian states have shown their stability, whereas new opportunities have emerged in trade. The expert community survey has shown that analysts fear that in the next 1-2 years the risk of secondary sanctions would become more significant, interethnic relations would get worse, strategic facilities have a risk of going under control of the major Russian businesses, dependence on China would be increasing, and it would be impossible to export goods via Russia.
“According to experts, our foreign policy must be diversified and partnership with mainly western countries and Türkiye needs to be strengthened, while remaining neutral. Economic diversification means development of alternative routes. As to revising relations with Russia, there were two dichotomies: gradually distancing from Russia and bargaining over better positions. But there’s a radical opinion that all alliances with Russia must be dropped and relations should be broken off,” said Serik Beisembaev, director of Paperlab.
According to Aiman Tursynkhan (Kazakhstan), director of agency EXIMAR Foresight, the conflict has caused a sharp rise in inflation across the Eurasian continent, and turned out to be even higher than during the financial crisis of 2006. First of all, it concerns global food security.
“It happened because both the party affected by the conflict and the aggressor party have been disconnected from the global commodity exchange. It means that neither the attacker, nor the defender benefits from the war. We can see that global breadbaskets producing cereals, oil crops, meat have been disconnected today. Russia and Belarus because of the sanctions, and Ukraine because of the war,” she said.
As to Central Asian states, they feel the consequences. Supply chains have been disrupted and seeds (fertilisers that regional farmers used to receive from Russia and Ukraine) have become unavailable.
In this situation, there is a huge potential for Central Asian countries to integrate. According to Yuly Yusupov, director of the Centre for Promotion of Economic Development of Uzbekistan, this will create additional markets, while the region will become more attractive for foreign investors because the sales market will be larger.
According to Aizhan Sharshenova, director of CrossRoads Central Asia (Kyrgyz Republic) think tank, cooperation processes take place at the state level in the region, yet they are not deep enough.
“Since 2018, we have held meetings of national leaders without participation of foreign players. I believe, it is very important. Unfortunately, once a foreign player appears in any C5+1 format, the discussion turns into a show for the foreign player. Therefore, our states need to communicate without foreign players,” she said.
Nevertheless, there is a problem of borders and distribution of water resources between the countries, which can cause disputes and hinder rapprochement. According to experts, it is the economy that can become the basis of integration because it can promote stronger ties. And free movement of people and goods can possibly reduce tensions over border control, said editor-in-chief of IWPR Tajikistan Marat Mamadshoev, and said about possible risks.
“Minor countries have a fear of regionalism and of larger countries that could subjugate them and dictate their will to them. […] Integration of authoritarian leaders can lead to negative consequences. It is not based on the bottom up approach and contradicts the interests of people, businesses,” he said.
Moreover, the war in Ukraine has encouraged the topic of decolonisation and search of one’s own identity, although this discussion is different in every country. According to Elmira Nogoibaeva, head of Esimde research platform (Kyrgyzstan), there are risks in decolonisation despite the opportunities it offers. Ainash Mustoyapova, instructor of E.A. Buketov Karaganda University (Kazakhstan), said that the war has brought the topic of decolonisation into focus and fragmented the society into those who support Ukraine and those who support Russia.
“After decolonisation, we have not offered anything in return. Once we reject some false narratives and values, we should offer something in return. Authorities have failed to do it and no ideology has been shaped. And it has led to the fragmentation because every person takes sides with a party based on their own criteria,” Mustoyapova said.
According to her, if countries in the region had some formed and promoted system of values, the people would not divide because of every new conflict, no matter the location.
According to preliminary data of the survey by Central Asia Barometer (Kyrgyzstan), 35-40 per cent of respondents in Central Asia cannot answer what they think about the war.
“People say that they have no clear standpoint. Most people follow the conflict, but the number of those who do not follow the war is growing. Most people believe that countries in the region must keep neutral,” said Kasiet Ysmanova, director of Central Asia Barometer.
According to the survey of residents of Ukraine, most Ukrainians believe that residents of Kazakhstan are more loyal to Ukraine, while Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan support Russia.
The survey by Central Asia Barometer has shown that 25 per cent of respondents in Kazakhstan blame Russia for the war, and 20 per cent blame Ukraine. In other countries of the region, the share of supporters of Russia slightly prevails. This picture is also the result of availability of Russian TV channels, branches of internet outlets and newspapers in the region. According to EUCAM and IWPR researches about narratives and perception of the Russian propaganda in Kyrgyzstan, people in the country are very perceptive to the propaganda and trust Russian media more than Kyrgyz media.
The third day of the forum was dedicated to trainings for experts. Tatiana Durneva, trainer and coordinator of advocacy campaigns (Ukraine), told how to organise advocacy campaigns so that they would be effective and achieve desired results.
“When we ask to solve a problem, they [authorities] will solve it in their own way or won’t solve it at all. When we offer a ready solution that would be credible […] and shorten development time, it will be more time-saving,” she said.
Daniyar Kosnazarov (Kazakhstan), marketing director of Qazaq Republic, told how experts should promote their personal brand and how to deliver information about their progress.
“Unfortunately, PR and communications are undervalued in analytical environment. In fact, a correct publicity campaign should be developed, goals should be set, content plan should be spelled out in detail at the stage of planning,” he said.
In today’s realities, use of artificial intelligence in one’s work becomes common, yet it bears some risks. The AI sphere has not still worked out the details of copyright and safety issues, said Malika Tokmadi, researcher of Paperlab.
“Sometimes it is easy to forget that it [ChatGPT] is not a human, and cannot be held liable. It does not understand anything, or think. It’s only your own legal and ethical responsibility,” she said.