Central Asian countries need integration, innovation, full-fledged market economy and development of human capital.
To mark the 30th anniversary of the sovereignty of Central Asia the analytical platform CABAR.asia held an expert meeting to discuss the main challenges for the region and each country.
The platform gathered Askar Nursha, a political analyst from Kazakhstan; Elmira Nogoibaeva, head of the Polis Asia think tank from Kyrgyzstan; Yuli Yusupov, an independent economist and director of the Center for Economic Development from Uzbekistan; and Marat Mamadshoev, an analyst and editor of the CABAR.asia analytical portal in Tajikistan. Lola Olimova moderated the online discussion.
Central Asian states, which gained their independence after the collapse of the Soviet Union, came to their 30th anniversary with a number of achievements and serious problems.
Among the main problems are large-scale corruption, inefficiency of the state apparatus, injustice of courts and law enforcement bodies, mass unemployment, shortage of water resources, unresolved issues of state borders in the Fergana Valley and a number of others. The countries also face global risks related to the environment, geopolitics and global trends.
Meanwhile, each country in the region has its own specific problems that they will have to face in the future, the experts noted at the meeting.
Kazakhstani citizens are anxious about the impending transition of power, which cannot yet be called a success, since the hand of the previous president, Nursultan Nazarbayev, can still be felt behind the current president, Kassym-Zhomart Tokayev, said independent analyst Askar Nursha.
“People are anxious about their future,” the analyst said.
Kazakhstan, unlike other Central Asian countries, has had no problem finding investments, and now there are questions of inefficient spending of government funds.
“We spent a lot of money from the treasury on branding events (Asian Games, EXPO, etc.). While Kazakhstan is not in the cohort of the top of these (developed and rapidly developing) countries. Too much money is squandered,” Askar Nursha said.
For Tajikistan, besides external global challenges such as the Taliban’s (a terrorist organization banned in Central Asia) rise to power in neighboring Afghanistan or deteriorating relations with Kyrgyzstan, domestic problems are top of the list, Marat Mamadshoev, editor of the analytical portal CABAR.asia, said. Primarily, the country’s economy and investment climate are worsening, Marat Mamadshoyev said.
First of all, it’s the increase in foreign debt, especially to China.
“The problem is not even the size of the debt, but at what resources the authorities will be able to pay off with China. The problem is not even the size of the debt but the resources which will help the authorities to pay debts and which will help them attract investment,” says Marat Mamadshoev.
According to Mamadshoev, Tajikistan has plunged into stagnation – political and social. The existing investment regime is extremely unfavorable both for domestic and foreign investors. The current trends most likely indicate a worsening of the situation.
Moreover, in the coming years, besides the transit of power, which always poses risks, the country is facing an inevitable crisis of the traditional clan structure of society.
“This disintegration will be very painful; it is accompanied by a weakening of kinship ties, which have been very important to Tajik society for centuries,” said Marat Mamadshoev.
Yuli Yusupov, an independent economist from Uzbekistan, believes that in the next 30 years, countries need to focus on creating truly market economies, capable independent states, with effective political institutions and the gradual democratization of societies.
This set of challenges is hindered by the lack of positive experience in building democracies in the region. Despite the fact that states have existed in the region “since antiquity,” but as a rule, rather rigid, authoritarian systems of governance have survived, Yusupov believes.
“We have no experience, compared to the countries of Eastern Europe, in building democratic societies. The Soviet regime gave a negative experience both politically and in the market economy. We are surrounded by countries – the so-called “black knights” who do not give a positive example of building democratic societies: from the south – Afghanistan, from the east – China, from the north – Russia. Neither of them, nor the others will give us a good experience of development towards democratic, political institutions,” Yusupov said.
In the countries of the region, the middle class and civil societies are weak, and it is these institutions and structures that are the main carriers in building a sustainable democratic society.
“With the change of president, the situation in Uzbekistan has started to improve and a dialogue between the state and society is being established, but the country still has a lot to do,” he said.
Kyrgyzstan has no problems with the transit of power, and political dynamics are so dynamic that change is constant, said Elmira Nogoibayeva, a researcher on socio-political processes in Central Asia and head of the Polis Asia think tank.
“Today, there is a big question about the quality of managers in Kyrgyzstan, because the constantly changing power has led to the fact that professional personnel are washed away. And there is a question with professional qualities of the elite. This affects the institutional memory,” Elmira Nogoibayeva said.
Among the common challenges that affect all countries in the region, Nogoibayeva called the retreat from democratic principles, which is now observed throughout the world.
“If you compare the current situation with 30 years ago, when we all had a fervor – ‘democracy,’ ‘human rights,’ etc. – now there is a rollback. And this is happening not only in Central Asia, but in Europe, America, all over the world. This is a global conservative turn. This is some rollback from democratic values and democratic priorities, a rollback into some patriarchal environment,” Nogoibayeva said.
Experts stressed the need to develop regional integration. That would allow for quicker and easier problem-solving, they said. In addition, the Central Asian region will be perceived more holistically and will cease to depend on the game of big geopolitical players.
“We will still, one way or another, live together. We need to distance ourselves from the extrapolated concepts of Eurasianism, Europeanism, etc. We need to look for these concepts within ourselves. We need to identify the possibilities of communication in the region. And this is not only large forums, which are present, but also other tools. It is time for us to sit down and define where we are going. We have one past and one future,” Nogoibayeva said.
Regional integration is the tool that will allow the countries of the region to compete economically and politically, Yuriy Yusupov agreed.
“If we create a common economic space, we will become more attractive to investors – domestic and foreign. Because it is one thing to have small markets and another thing to have one global big market. Until we are united, we cannot claim for big investments. And the last geopolitical point, due to integration we will finally be able to become a single political force and reduce dependence on the “black knights” and to speak with one voice, “- said Yuliy Yusupov.
Askar Nursha also believes that the countries of the region “need to work on unification, to create some kind of regional identity, to finally become confident in the future.
In addition, experts believe that the countries of the region in the near future need to solve such a problem as the neighborhood with Afghanistan, where at the moment a new geopolitical game is unfolding.
“Now new alliances will be created. And the big question here is which of them our countries will be part of,” Elmira Nogoibayeva said.
Among the common challenges that can create a certain social tension in the countries of the region and which must be solved now, Marat Mamadshoev called the high level of social inequality and the growing level of intolerance in societies.
“Our societies must modernize so that we do not fall behind. It’s rightly said that human potential plays a major role now,” he said.
Environmental issues, underdevelopment of advanced industries and reduced demand for migrant workers are the main challenges ahead, Yuli Yusupov said.
Underdevelopment of science, education, innovation, information technology, the financial sector, medicine, the entertainment industry, tourism and the production of high value-added products are all issues countries will have to address in the next 30 years, he said.
Askar Nursha notes the need to address problems such as the low quality of government, problems with human capital, the development of new sectors of the economy and innovative technologies.
You can watch the full version of the expert meeting here.