On 30 November 2023, the annual Conference of the Parties (COP28) to the United Nations Framework Convention (UNFCCC) on Climate Change begins in the United Arab Emirates. Central Asia, as a region vulnerable to the effects of climate change, should actively participate in these global climate policy negotiations. The main focus of the region should be to jointly promote commitments to reduce emissions, achieve carbon neutrality, and the region’s access to climate finance. However, countries need to build capacity to realise climate pledges and restructure institutional arrangements for the transition to a green economy.
Top priorities for COP28: Global stocktaking
The main focus of this year’s conference will be to discuss the first Global Stocktaking, which is a comprehensive assessment of progress since the Paris Agreement in 2015. This Global Stocktake identifies four areas where progress is needed to keep global land temperatures within 2°C of pre-industrial averages:
- mitigation (emissions reductions);
- adaptation to the impacts of climate change;
- climate finance;
- and climate co-operation (technology and knowledge).
However, the results of the review showed that the world is not yet on track to achieve the goals set in Paris in 2015. At COP28, UN member states will discuss their findings from the review. Here are some of the possible outcomes according to the stated conference programme:
- A review of realistic energy sector targets and a focus on a rapid transition (by 2030) to decarbonisation (assumes a reduction in CO2 emissions per unit of GDP);
- The need to scale up financing mechanisms to support efforts to adapt to a changing climate, especially for countries most at risk, as Member States recognise gaps in action and implementation due to financing constraints;
- Engaging the private sector in climate action (including finance, accountability, capacity building and technology);
- Enhanced action and ambition on nationally determined contributions, emphasising equity and historical responsibility, especially for developed countries.
In addition, COP28 is expected to discuss progress on the establishment of a Loss and Damage Fund, the debt-for-nature swap and other thorny issues between developed and developing countries regarding climate diplomacy.
Central Asia context: climate change impacts
Central Asia is grappling with the adverse effects of climate change, including rising temperatures, extreme weather events and impacts on important economic sectors such as water, energy and agriculture. Given the transboundary nature of climate risks, this process is a sensitive security issue.
Economic losses from droughts and floods in Central Asia are projected by the World Bank to be up to 1.3 per cent of GDP per year, and crop yields are expected to decline by 30 per cent by 2050, resulting in about 5.1 million internal climate migrants by 2050.
Given the projections and current challenges, it should be recognised that climate issues will impact all priority sectors in Central Asia and could be a potential source of conflict, including transboundary water resources, energy policy and economic relations. Therefore, not only effective national measures but also regional integration is needed to address these challenges. However, regional integration in practical terms is currently insufficient.
Greenhouse gas emissions and commitments to reduce them: the contribution of Central Asia
Central Asian countries are parties to the Paris Agreement and have been participating in climate processes at the national level since 2016. The Paris Agreement defines two groups of countries: a group of emitters (China, the United States and the European Union countries are the largest emitters in absolute terms) and vulnerable countries, which are the most exposed to the effects of climate change. Central Asia is in the group of vulnerable countries because Central Asia’s carbon footprint is small, accounting for less than 1 per cent of global emissions.
However, per capita emissions are high, especially in Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan, with the energy and agriculture sectors accounting for 40 per cent of total emissions. Electricity production is mainly based on fossil fuels and accounts for the largest share of emissions. In Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan, agriculture is the largest contributor to emissions.
All countries in the region have pledged to reduce carbon dioxide emissions under the Paris Agreement and have submitted nationally determined contributions (NDCs), i.e. an action plan to reduce emissions and adapt to climate change. Each party to the Paris Agreement is required to develop an NDC and update it every five years.
Thus, Kazakhstan is committed to reducing emissions by 15 per cent of 1990 levels by 2030, and by 25 per cent with international support. However, according to official statements, to date, emissions have already exceeded the 1990 level. By 2060, the country aims to achieve carbon neutrality.
Under the 2021 INDC, by 2030, Kyrgyzstan commits to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 15.97 per cent and 43.62 per cent with international support. In 2021, the President of Kyrgyzstan, Sadyr Zhaparov, stated that by 2050 the country will try to achieve carbon neutrality, primarily through the development of hydropower plants.
It is important to note that the Republic of Tajikistan set a target emission limit in its initial INDC: “the unconditional target was to limit emissions from 80 to 90 per cent of greenhouse gas emissions at the 1990 level, and the conditional target was to limit emissions from 65 to 75 per cent of greenhouse gas emissions at the 1990 level”.
In 2021, Uzbekistan increased its quantitative commitments under the Paris Agreement (INDCs) and intends to reduce specific greenhouse gas emissions per unit of GDP by 35 per cent by 2030 from the 2010 level, instead of the previously envisaged 10 per cent.
Turkmenistan’s INDC sets an ambitious target to reduce its greenhouse gas emissions in 2030 by 20 per cent relative to 2010 emission levels (66,400 Gg (CO2-eq.)).
Adaptation to climate change in Central Asia
Adaptation priorities are increasingly reflected in the legal frameworks of Central Asian countries. Kazakhstan’s new environmental law establishes adaptation priorities. Kyrgyzstan is adopting laws and programmes to develop climate-sensitive mountain ecosystems, to develop renewable and efficient energy, and is developing a national action plan on climate change adaptation. Tajikistan’s new adaptation and green development strategy requires a multi-sectoral approach targeting energy, water resources, agriculture, industry and construction. Uzbekistan has adopted a low-carbon energy strategy and is developing an adaptation plan with a focus on irrigation, agricultural chains and green energy.
However, while focusing on developing its integrated climate change adaptation strategies, the region faces challenges related to the vulnerability of approaches. Low awareness of climate change, limited data, lack of appropriate policy and legislative mechanisms, and lack of financing present significant barriers to the successful implementation of adaptation strategies.
The region’s adaptive capacity is constrained by fiscal space, which has been largely undermined by two successive global shocks – COVID-19 and Russia’s war in Ukraine.
The implementation of adaptation policies must be supported by adequate funding. Cost estimates for the region in 2020 range from 0.6 to 3.3 per cent of GDP (IMF 2022).
Given that the Central Asian region is more focused on climate change adaptation than on mitigating climate change, increasing the capacity of countries to create specific roadmaps and implement adaptation measures requires large-scale resources. Resources can be raised through restructuring of national budgets, green investments (investments in renewable energy, green technologies) and global climate finance mechanisms.
Central Asia at COP 28: Integration and key priorities for engagement
In the experience of past Conferences of the Parties, Central Asia does not appear as one region in the climate change negotiation processes as African or South Asian countries. However, there is a positive trend in the form of sessions in the Central Asian pavilion and in the preparation of a regional position, which has not yet been published but is likely to carry the countries’ formal positions on the mountain agenda, water resources, and energy. The region has no practical documents or regional instruments on the climate position. Countries participate on behalf of their countries and conduct their national negotiation processes.
Key findings and recommendations
1. Strengthening the position in building climate business processes in public administration systems:
For effective implementation of Central Asia’s climate initiatives, experts recommend strengthening climate business processes. This includes building governance, monitoring and reporting systems in line with global standards, as well as active engagement with the private sector. Therefore, the region can negotiate technical advice and adaptation of practices at COP28.
2. Financial systems, fiscal policy and investment reforms:
Fiscal policy reforms include a review of public spending (budget labelling) in removing grey energy subsidies (removal of state incentives to support fossil fuels, e.g. removal of subsidies for coal development) and diversifying the tax base. Here, public-private partnerships can play a key role in attracting investment in climate-resilient projects.
3. Strengthening the position on the Loss and Damage Fund:
At COP27 in 2022, UNFCCC member countries agreed to establish a Loss and Damage Fund, a financial mechanism designed to address irreversible climate change impacts that cannot be avoided or mitigated through adaptation efforts in vulnerable countries. At COP28, countries will make a final decision on how the mechanism will work. Central Asia, following the experts’ recommendations, should strengthen its position on the Fund.
4. Promoting Debt-for-nature swaps:
The experts emphasise the importance of promoting debt-for-nature swaps by providing an inspiring example of successful implementation in Belize. This experience, which reduced the country’s external debt by 10 per cent of GDP and contributed to the conservation of a coral reef, could be a model for Central Asian countries.
5. Public-private partnership reform:
Based on the successful experience of the EU green taxonomy, reforms in public-private partnerships are recommended. The introduction of a system for classifying and assessing the climate resilience of projects, similar to the green taxonomy, could be a catalyst for attracting investment in green initiatives.
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