Central Asian states can play a key role in stabilising the situation in Afghanistan and must develop a coordinated regional response, – experts say during the international online discussion, organised by IWPR CA and its analytical platform CABAR.asia on 21 October 2021.
Central Asia is one of the key regions in ensuring security in Central Eurasia when it comes to the Afghan problem. The crisis that arose after the withdrawal of US troops from the country and the rise of the Taliban caused a multidimensional calamity that affected the region and all of Afghanistan’s neighboring countries directly.
The Afghan crisis is typically analysed through the prism of large international powers and the perspective of neighbouring Central Asian states is often overlooked. Alan Davis, IWPR’s director of Asia and Eurasia maintained that, despite lack of regional unity and agreement among the “five stans” on how to address and resolve the current crisis, it is essential to discuss the role Central Asian countries play to develop policy solutions.
IWPR asked a panel of international experts to discuss the potential threats and opportunities that Central Asian countries face as the crisis in Afghanistan unfolds and provide recommendations for further policy steps.
The international online discussion was organised by IWPR CA and its analytical platform CABAR.asia on 21 October 2021 and involved over 100 participants from different countries. Leading experts made reports on this subject: keynote speaker Dr. Ariel Cohen, nonresident Senior Fellow at the Washington-based Atlantic Council Eurasia Center, Dr. Jennifer Brick Murtazashvili, Associate Professor & Director, Center for Governance and Markets at the University of Pittsburgh, Nonresident Scholar at Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, Dr. Akram Umarov, Fulbright Visiting Scholar at the Center for Governance and Markets, Graduate School of Public and International Affairs (University of Pittsburgh) and Tamim Asey, former Deputy Minister of Defense of the Islamic Republic of Afghanistan, Executive Chairman at The Institute of War and Peace Studies (Afghanistan) and Council on Foreign Relations of Afghanistan. Bruce Pannier, Free Europe/Radio Liberty’s Senior Central Asia correspondent, moderated the discussion.
For Dr. Ariel Cohen the current crisis is a pivotal period in the national existence of Central Asian countries. The model of statehood of Central Asia and the agency of each individual country, including regional ethnic groups, are being challenged by a whole different paradigm – the Islamist concept as expressed by different players in Afghanistan. Cohen stressed that besides the amorphous and non-centralised Taliban, there is a multitude of other actors across the country, such as the Turkistan Islamic Party, Hezbollah, ISIS-K, Al-Qaeda, the Uyghur movements, among others. The Islamist paradigm these organisations pursue does not prioritise ethnicity.
“Thousands of fighters from Central Asia went to Syria, Iraq, and other places for the jihad, [they] subscribed to this ideology. If not checked, if not rendered non-competitive by any means possible, that ideology will challenge the statehoods of the still newly independent states,” Dr. Cohen posited.
As such, in interacting with the new rulers in Kabul, the aim for the Central Asian governments is to render the Taliban government less capable of challenging its neighbors and exporting its Islamist model. A relevant challenge for Central Asians is whether Afghanistan’s national form of government will be a “caliphate”, that could be exported across its borders.
Another key question lies in which powerful players are going to be engaged with the country. Dr. Cohen indicated Russia in the security sphere and China for the economy, with other actors including Turkey, possibly trying to build its Turkic Union, and Pakistan, in light of its historic connection to the Taliban.
The Central Asian states’ own legitimacy and conduct should also be considered. Dr. Cohen cautioned that corruption, drug trafficking, abuse of power and other illegal practices can be used by the Taliban and other propagandists “if and when it comes to discrediting the existing regimes” in Central Asia.
Dr. Jennifer Brick Murtazashvili, maintained that, despite the pessimistic predictions following the departure of the American forces, Central Asian states, with divergent foreign policies, remain confident and have met this crisis with preparedness, if not anticipation. The fall of the Ghani government poses various threats, but the current crisis differs from 1996 and 2001 as Central Asian states are better placed to pursue their own agendas.
The Taliban’s takeover has brough a great deal of uncertainty, but rather than pre-August and post-August disruptions, Dr. Murtazashvili highlighted a continuity in the foreign policy of Central Asian states towards the country. The governments have been aware of the security threats Afghanistan posed and came to realise that instead of solving the problem, the presence of U.S. forces was deteriorating the situation. For years, the Kabul’s central government had been fighting on various fronts – against the Taliban and associated militant groups as well as against warlords and commanders associated with the Northern Alliance. The situation in northern Afghanistan has been calamitous and unstable, particularly over the last six-seven years as the central government had lost control of various areas, which has resulted in mass displacement and migration.
The engagement with the Taliban varies significantly among the five stans. Turkmenistan has been interacting with the group for years, whereas Tajikistan has a tense history, in part because of the Tajik militants in northern Afghanistan. Uzbekistan had fluctuating relations over the last 20 years – late President Islam Karimov had a negative attitude towards Pakistan, which supported the group, but the strategic partnership Tashkent signed with Islamabad in July, at the presence of former Afghan President Ghani, signaled that the current Uzbek leadership may be comfortable with the Taliban in power.
Yet, the Central Asian states are not benefiting from the current situation Dr. Akram Umarov stated – rather, they have been left with a burden. He noted that neighbouring countries are building their relations with the Taliban step-by-step and stressed that more regional cooperation is needed.
Almost all Central Asian states have been interacting with the Taliban on a bilateral basis, but they should make use of the established platform of consultative meetings and use a cooperated approach to deal with the crisis, without the interaction of other powerful actors.
“In order to demonstrate our agency, we should act more proactively and demonstrate that we, as a region, are ready to have more responsibility and have a united position,” Dr. Umarov explains.
The current humanitarian and refugee crisis, he adds, should be addressed as a priority, while the recognition of the Taliban regime can be decided at a later stage. Terrorism threats, drug trafficking, and uncontrolled weaponry that was left after the withdrawal of western forces and the Afghan army are relevant instability factors.
Dr. Umarov also stresses that the Taliban government remains unpredictable. It lack internal coordination, it struggles with the organisation of public institutions and the provision of public services to the population and, considering the involvement of Pakistan, its decision-making independence remains an open question.
The lack of coordinated actions was exemplified by a recent instance – Taliban representatives in Moscow tried to persuade the international community of their de-radicalization and readiness for international interaction while in Kabul Sirajuddin Haqqani, the acting interior ministry, met the families of suicide bombers, praising their terrorists and offering the relative cash and land.
Tamim Asey, provided an overview of the ethnic power dynamics between Central Asian states and Afghanistan and elaborated on the threat of radical Islamist ideology. Employing the ‘patron-client’ relationship model, Asey analysed the economic, security, and cultural aspects of the relations between the Taliban and the region’s ethnic groups.
Central Asian leaders fear the rise of jihadist Islamic movements that would threaten their nationalism. This fear is grounded: Uzbek and Tajik nationals have been present in significant numbers in the Taliban forces and young Uzbeks and Tajiks have been actively fighting in northern Afghanistan. Military suicide squads are on the rise and Islamists recruit Tajik and Uzbek suicide bombers to be deployed on the borders of these countries. Asey said that the new model of jihadist ideology could inspire, in fact it is already inspiring, extremist groups in Central Asian states and beyond, for example in Russia.
“We see how the Taliban and the Islamic ideological umbrella are using the ethnic card and instrumentalizing ethnicity for their global and regional jihadist objectives,” Asey stated.
As such, the Central Asian governments’ approach toward Afghanistan is largely pragmatic and local in nature. Their security forces have been interacting with the Taliban for years, and they have even supported local powerbrokers by providing them with energy and weapons in order to secure their borders. Asey noted there is no group, in Afghanistan’s recent history, that the Central Asian authorities would support, and no Central Asian leader who is interested in engaging in strongmen politics in Afghanistan, except perhaps for Tajik leader Emomali Rahmon.
Asey agreed that the current time is a critical juncture in the history of Afghanistan and Central Asia but noted that it is still too early to draw conclusions about the influence that the crisis will have on the region’s security dynamics.
For Abakhon Sultonnazarov, IWPR’s Regional Director for Central Asia, it is of utter importance for Central Asia to be at the forefront in searching for a solution and analyse developments in Afghanistan through the lens of the region’s collective identity and building a unified and pragmatic approach to the situation.
You can watch the full version of the expert meeting here.