Tajikistan authorities announced their intention to create 100,000 new jobs annually. However, the experts believe that it is impossible to employ that many people in the country under the current conditions.
A resident of Ayni district of Sughd region Shahroz Meliev, 34, returned to Tajikistan from Russia this May. Now, he works as a taxi driver. In a CABAR.asia interview, he said he worked for an international company in Russia but after the sanctions were imposed, this company curtailed operations in Russia.
Meliev has been a regular labour migrant to Russia since 2010. At first, he worked at a construction site but in 2016, he managed to get a job in an international company. “We worked in a warehouse; the work schedule was similar to one of the state-owned enterprises: we worked for 11 months and had a month of vacation leave,” Meliev says. After this company closed, Meliev could not find enough money to submit various documents (about 20-25 thousand rubles – about $410) necessary for a residence permit in Russia. He also had to pay more than 5,000 rubles (about $80) for a work permit every month. “I did not have this money. The company stopped working suddenly; earlier, I sent all my money to Tajikistan,” says Shahroz Meliev. He has no higher education and is currently working as a taxi driver on the Dushanbe-Ayni highway (about 150 kilometres north of Dushanbe). “I have two daughters and a son; my parents live with us. When I was in Russia, I earned about 40-45 thousand rubles (about $740) a month. I sent to Tajikistan about 80% of this amount and spent the rest on my own needs. At that time, my salary was enough to make a living,” Meliev says. Now, he does not have enough money. Meliev drives from Ayni to Dushanbe and back twice a day. However, he has to spend most of the earned money on gas and road expenses. “On average, I have 1000-1200 somoni (about $100-120) left each month. This is very little for a family of 7,” Shahroz said. Based on his friends’ advice, he decided to save some money to go to Kazakhstan to work. “Now, most of those who were deported from Russia or lost their jobs go to Kazakhstan. Some of my friends are already there. They say the job and salary are good. The fee for submitting residence documents (residence permit – Ed.) is also low and they do not require a work permit there. I plan to go to Kazakhstan the next month. One cannot earn enough money as a driver in Tajikistan,” Meliev said.Migration to Russia Is Increasing
Russia is the main destination for labour migration from Tajikistan. Despite the current Western sanctions imposed due to the war in Ukraine, the number of Tajik migrants who left for Russia has doubled. At a press conference on July 26, Minister of Labour, Migration, and Employment of the Population Shirin Amonzoda stated that more than 322,000 people left for labour migration in the first half of 2022. This is twice as many as compared to the same period last year. In addition, in the first half of 2022, 412 Tajikistan residents obtained Russian citizenship and left the country with their families. Currently, 90% of Tajik migrants go to work to Russia and 5% – to Kazakhstan. During the same period, 240,596 labour migrants returned to Tajikistan from abroad, which is 4.5 times more than during the same period last year. This is happening despite the fact that dozens of companies curtailed operations in Russia due to tough sanctions imposed by Western countries after the start of Russia’s military aggression against Ukraine. Answering the journalists’ question about the impact of sanctions against Russia on the Tajik migrants’ employment, Shirin Amonzoda only said, “The specialists assess all crises situations”. “To solve another crisis, to support labour migrants who have returned to Tajikistan, and to support their families, the Ministry has established a Donor Coordination Council. This year, the World Bank and the European Union are allocating the funds to support countries that use labour migration to reduce the negative impact of any sanction and any consequence of crises,” Shirin Amonzoda noted. In its latest War in the Region report, the World Bank predicts for Tajikistan, “the fallout from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine will lead to an economic contraction of about 2% and 40% fall in remittances in 2022”. However, a representative of the Ministry of Labour, Migration, and Employment of the Population told CABAR.asia that the Ministry had previously predicted a massive return of Tajik migrants to their homeland due to sanctions and, together with development partners, was preparing to provide jobs for these people. “Fortunately, this has not happened yet. This year, the number of deported migrants from Russia has significantly decreased. In addition, remittances from labour migrants have increased,” added a Ministry representative.Productive Employment Concept
At the end of May this year, the country adopted the “Concept of development of productive employment in the Republic of Tajikistan until 2040”. According to the Concept, the population of the republic may reach 11.5 million people by 2030; therefore, it is planned to create 100,000 new jobs annually. Minister Shirin Amonzoda did not give a substantive answer to a CABAR.asia journalist’s question of how will such a number of jobs be created annually. She only said that the Concept was created to meet the current needs of the labour market considering digitalisation and the greater use of artificial intelligence. “Therefore, the working group in the Ministry is creating a draft of the first medium-term program for the development of productive employment in Tajikistan to cover the following aspects: the effective training of labour resources and the provision of the labour market with a labour force that meets the requirements of the current stage of industrialisation,” Amonzoda said.
According to the Minister, the most important point that the Concept takes into account, “is maintaining a social partnership between the state and our partners”.
She notes that 100,000 jobs, which are supposed to be created annually, must meet the requirements of the labour market under the conditions of industrialisation of the country’s economy. “Within the framework of the Concept, the priority will be given to the quantity and quality of jobs created,” she said. The main goal of the adoption of this document is the implementation of the National Development Strategy until 2030, which provides for the country’s industrial and innovative development. The Concept covers five key areas of state policy in the field of employment and social protection of the population: expansion of areas of productive employment; knowledge and skills, technologies, and productive employment opportunities; business development and creation of productive jobs; labour market institutions and programs; social partnership. The Concept notes that labour migration mainly involves men from rural areas and this process continues. The majority of labour migrants are young men aged 15-29 and persons aged 30-39 who have a basic education. At the same time, the share of labour migrants with vocational education is declining. According to the Concept’s authors, the largest share of labour migrants falls on the Sughd and Khatlon regions. They believe that the spontaneous nature of labour migration reduces economic and social efficiency. Therefore, it is necessary to create new jobs in the country by developing the private sector, including small and medium-sized enterprises.An Expert Doubts
In the past, the Tajik authorities have repeatedly announced their intention to create new jobs; however, the situation did not change. The country’s population is increasingly migrating abroad because people cannot find jobs in the country. The experts believe that it is almost impossible to create 100,000 new jobs every year. Migration expert Shuhrat Latipov told CABAR.asia that, according to the development programs and strategies, the government should not create jobs but contribute to their creation. This requires reforms in many sectors of the economy; tax reform is especially important. “The next step is the introduction and use of new technologies, which will ensure the competitiveness of domestic products compared to imported ones. This will also contribute to the development of entrepreneurship and the creation of new jobs,” Latipov says. According to him, it is necessary to divide jobs into two groups: permanent and seasonal. “If at least 50% of these 100,000 jobs are permanent, we can say the programs are producing good results,” says Shuhrat Latipov. However, the expert believes that it will be very difficult to create 100,000 new jobs every year under the current conditions. According to him, several factors have to be considered. The first is the impact of the coronavirus pandemic on the global economy’s development and, especially, on the economy of Tajikistan. The second is Western sanctions against Russia, which have complicated the exchange of goods and products between countries and dragged the global economy into a deep crisis.
“Each development program and strategy is processed in accordance with official statistics that local authorities provide to the central government. According to official statistics and local development reports, the program appears to be on track. However, in reality, it is being implemented partially or remains on paper only,” the expert says.
Amid the Western sanctions against Russia and their impact on labour migrants who eventually return to Tajikistan, Shuhrat Latipov suggests diversifying labour migration directions as soon as possible. After all, strong dependence on Russia affects not only the Tajik economy but also the economies of neighbouring countries. According to him, the economic situation has to be analysed by independent internal and external experts, so that the analysis is transparent, fair, and understandable, and official statistics provided by local authorities are reliably verified. “As we all know, there are many false reports at the local level. An anti-crisis program should also be adopted so that those companies and entrepreneurs who have ceased their activities due to the pandemic and Western sanctions against Russia receive financial support (as in other countries) and tax benefits,” he adds. According to him, it is necessary to work to solve the issue of existing monopolies in the economy because the free participation of all companies in the country’s economy must be ensured. “Finally, it is necessary to eradicate corruption at the local level because it creates an obstacle to economic development and leads to the emergence of local monopolies,” he concluded.