The construction of a nuclear power plant (NPP) in Uzbekistan is surrounded by lively discussions and concerns among experts and scientists who see significant risks in the project’s implementation.
The construction of a nuclear power plant in Uzbekistan, initiated after a series of agreements with Russia, is a new stage in energy policy in the country that has no experience in such projects.
With the growing electricity demand, the project involves using modern technologies and resources, which could significantly change the region’s energy landscape.
However, the NPP raises concerns about several issues and risks.
Beginning of Construction
In the autumn of 2024, the construction of a nuclear power plant in Uzbekistan began. It is located on the border between Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan, near Lake Tuzkon of the Aidar-Arnasai Lake system in the Jizzakh region.
Russia and Uzbekistan signed the Agreement for Cooperation in Peaceful Uses of Nuclear Energy on December 29, 2017. On September 7, 2018, the countries signed a new agreement on the construction of a nuclear power plant in Uzbekistan; on October 19 of the same year, the presidents of both countries launched the project.
On May 27, 2024, during the visit of Russian President Vladimir Putin to Uzbekistan, a new agreement was signed, expanding cooperation in the construction of RITM-200N small modular reactors (SMRs). JSC Atomstroyexport and the State Unitary Enterprise “Directorate for the Construction of Nuclear Power Plants” of Uzbekistan signed the contract for their construction.
The construction of a small nuclear power plant (NPP) in Uzbekistan is currently ongoing. Now, a contract with Atomstroyexport (a division of the Russian State Corporation Rosatom) for constructing the NPP with a capacity of 330 MW is signed. The project includes six reactors with a capacity of 55 MW each.
- Environmental research (meteorological, hydrological, and seismological analyses) is ongoing.
- Work on creating a rotational camp for maintenance personnel that can accommodate up to 10,000 people during peak periods has begun.
- The design of the plant and the development of an environmental impact assessment are actively progressing.
- By the end of 2024, it is planned to start construction of the main facilities, including working rooms and sections, and finalise the project documentation to obtain permits to begin construction in early 2026.
International companies are actively involved in the project. Chinese companies are discussing the supply of turbines and generators, as well as technology for the dry cooling towers. Negotiations are also underway with Hungarian and other European companies for the supply of auxiliary equipment.
According to Uzbek government representatives, about 100 specialists are trained annually at the Tashkent branch of the Russian National Research Nuclear University MEPhI, and there are plans to send 500 specialists to Russia for two-year training. In addition, it is planned to open a training centre at the NPP site.
Minister of Energy Jurabek Mirzamakhmudov said Uzbekistan will not stop at a small nuclear power plant. By 2030, it plans to build a larger nuclear power plant that will produce a more significant share of the country’s energy balance. Small reactors will be used to stabilise renewable energy sources, thus reducing dependence on coal and gas, which is an important step towards achieving carbon neutrality by 2050.
This project also considers using Chinese small modular reactors, which will provide additional flexibility in placing and operating plants in seismically active regions.
According to the government, the project to build a small nuclear power plant is part of a strategic programme to diversify Uzbekistan’s energy balance and shift to more environmentally friendly energy sources.
Risks and Challenges: Opinions of Specialists, Scientists, and Environment Experts
Meanwhile, specialists, scientists, and environmental experts are concerned about various ecological, social, and historical factors, complemented by concerns about the lack of transparency and control over nuclear safety.
Seismic Hazard of the Region
Uzbekistan lies in a seismically active zone, which raises questions about the safety of nuclear facilities. Despite the availability of new technologies, there is no guarantee of absolute protection against possible earthquakes, which pose an additional threat to the people’s livelihood and the ecosystem.
Given the seismic activity of the region, the possibility of an emergency at the NPP becomes a serious threat. The history of earthquakes in the region, including recent ones in the Fergana and Jizzakh regions, makes local residents doubt the complete safety of NPP operations under such conditions. Any strong earthquake could damage the plant’s infrastructure and lead to catastrophic consequences.
The interviewed experts believe that the construction project should be supported by detailed research of seismic activity in the region and should consider enhanced safety measures, which will require significant additional costs.
Lack of Information and Transparency
Many local activists complain about the lack of detailed information about the project, its safety, and ecology. The lack of sufficient public discussion and transparency in decision-making only increases mistrust and generates rumours of possible risks.
Systemic Changes in Radiation Safety Are Needed
A specialist in radiation safety Ilya Bystritsky has been working in decommissioning the BN-350 reactor unit, manufacturing ampoule sources of ionising radiation, as well as liquidating radiation accidents for more than 20 years. He believes that Uzbekistan needs systemic changes in radiation safety. This will not only increase the protection of the population but also contribute to the development of nuclear energy in the country.
“The construction of a nuclear power plant should not pose a radiation hazard to the public if appropriate measures are followed. However, it is important to establish a qualified healthcare service capable of effectively diagnosing and treating radiation sickness. Training such a service is relevant not only in the context of the NPP but also for existing enterprises in Uzbekistan that use radioactive sources,” he said.
Bystritsky believes that NPP construction should be supervised by an international consortium with the participation of the leading global companies and IAEA support. A comprehensive reform of radiation safety legislation is needed, including opening new educational programmes to train technical specialists both in Uzbekistan and abroad.
The scientist notes that Uzbekistan has already taken steps to improve radiation safety, including establishing a metrological service to calibrate dosemeters and advance staff training. However, legislation in this area remains weak and requires revision. Bureaucracy and lack of clear regulatory requirements create obstacles to effective radiation safety management.
“A perfect control system requires a complete revision of the regulatory framework and bringing it in line with international standards. It is important to simplify the process of obtaining permits to import radioactive substances and make it more transparent. We also need clear requirements for certification of containers and equipment rather than duplicate permits that complicate the process,” he said.
Storage and Disposal of Radioactive Waste Is One of the Serious Problems
Uzbekistan faces serious problems in the radioactive waste management. Currently, there are no specialised companies capable of treating different types of radioactive waste. This issue requires attention from the government.
“It is important to note that all fuel used at the NPP will be brought to the manufacturing plant, which reduces the risk of its unauthorised storage,” Ilya Bystritsky said.
Svetlana Mogilyuk, Chair of the “EcoForum of Kazakhstan” Association, an expert in ecosystems and water management, and Chair of the Civil Society Climate Network, also doubts that the Uzbek government will be able to fully solve the problem soon.
“The government assures that nuclear power plants will produce minimal waste, use little fuel, and consume little water. However, when a nuclear power plant shuts down, it becomes a source of radioactive waste, as all its structures become contaminated. We can see examples in Germany and the United States, where regions, in which nuclear plants are shut down, fall into economic decline because decommissioning requires huge financial expenses,” she said.
Environmental Risks and Transboundary Consequences
Although nuclear power is a low-carbon energy source, ecological threats remain. In Uzbekistan, given its climate and water resources, there are concerns about the long-term impact of NPPs on ecosystems and water supply, especially considering the need to cool reactors.
The NPP construction is also associated with the risk of environmental pollution in case of accidents, which can have devastating consequences for public health and nature.
Experts from Kazakhstan express serious concerns about the construction of a nuclear power plant in their country and the construction of a nuclear power plant in Uzbekistan because of its proximity to their country’s border.
Since the NPP will be located only 40 kilometres from the Kazakh border, any negative consequences of the accident will affect not only the population of Uzbekistan but also major cities in Kazakhstan, such as Shymkent and Turkistan.
In Kazakhstan, despite the referendum held in October this year, where, according to official reports, more than 71% of voters supported the construction of a nuclear power plant, the number of people opposing the construction is not decreasing.
The main concern is the negative impact of NPPs on the environment and public health due to the growing number of accidents worldwide.
Environmental experts discuss the additional strain on the Aral Basin’s fragile ecosystems, while people living near the planned plant location fear that the leakage of radioactive materials could contaminate transboundary water resources, such as the Syr Darya River and Shardara reservoir, and cause serious health consequences for people living nearby.
Aiman Tleulesova, National Coordinator of the Central Asian Regional Water Network, said the project could affect Kazakhstan by requiring increased water discharges into Lake Tuzkon to cool the nuclear power plant.
She believes that water withdrawal from the Syr Darya River, which flows into the Aral Sea, may also increase. This could leave the agriculture workers without necessary water for crop irrigation in the Turkistan and Kyzylorda regions of Kazakhstan, where this is an acute problem already.
“The climate is changing, and we are already observing low-water cycles. If the Syr Darya River dries up, not only the Aral Sea but also two regions of Kazakhstan will be affected. Lake Tuzkon, where construction is planned, is a closed, salt-water, and drying lake; its volumes will not be enough to cool the powerful reactors of the NPP,” Tleulesova emphasised.
Considering the current climate change, experts say that problems with regulation and the filling of water reservoirs may only worsen in the future.
Water allocation problems between Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, and Kyrgyzstan are becoming increasingly urgent, and the presence of a nuclear power plant will only exacerbate the conflict of interests between agriculture and energy, Aiman Tleulesova emphasises.
Bulat Yessekin, an international expert on environmental policy, climate, and water resources, shares Tleulesova’s concerns, saying Central Asia is the most vulnerable to climate change amid rising average global temperatures because it has no access to the world’s oceans.
“The NPP operation is accompanied by water withdrawal and release of heat energy, which can increase the degradation of the Aral Sea ecosystems,” Yessekin said.
He believes that Lake Tuzkon in the Jizzakh region needs the same special protection and compensation mechanisms as those introduced for Lake Balkhash in Kazakhstan.
“For example, mechanisms such as restoration of aquatic ecosystems, reforestation, and others, similar to the proposed special law on Lake Balkhash related to plans to build a nuclear power plant on Lake Balkhash,” he said.
Geopolitical Risks
Experts highlight the possible political implications of NPP construction, including dependence on technology and fuel supplies from foreign partners. Long-term nuclear fuel supply contracts could increase external influence and political pressure on the country, which could affect its energy independence and security.
The construction of a nuclear power plant in Uzbekistan has potential political risks associated with the involvement of Russia and China in the project. Russia is one of the main contractors that offer assistance in NPP construction and nuclear fuel supply. However, dependence on Russia for important aspects such as the construction and operation of nuclear facilities could create risks for Uzbekistan in case of changes in the Russian political situation, sanctions, or geopolitical tensions.
Since Uzbekistan plans to implement the NPP project with the participation of the Russian Rosatom company, this raises questions about the NPP’s reliability and sustainability, the region’s energy supply and infrastructure under sanctions, and other possible difficulties. Yessekin believes Russia could also use the NPP for political purposes and increased dependence.
According to the 2024 World Nuclear Industry Status Report (WNISR), Rosatom remains the leading builder and exporter of reactors, supplying 26 of the 59 power units under construction worldwide. Customers include Bangladesh, China, Egypt, India, and Turkey.
In addition, China, as one of the possible suppliers of spare parts and equipment for nuclear power plants, may also pose political risks due to its growing influence on the global energy market.
Uzbekistan could face a situation where political or economic disagreements with China affect the supply of key components or technology for nuclear facilities. Amid international competition and global financial crises, such dependencies could jeopardise the project’s stability and security.
“It is important to consider possible risks. Nuclear power projects may lead to heavy dependence on partner countries, especially if their share in the energy balance becomes significant. The unique security risks associated with nuclear power also raise concerns,” Bulat Yessekin said.
Instability of Nuclear Power
Small modular reactors are a relatively new solution. There is little information about them yet, so it is difficult to draw clear conclusions, including on the volume of water consumption, Svetlana Mogilyuk noted.
“In renewable energy, where there are many smaller capacity plants, balancing power supply is easier, which makes it a more advantageous solution,” she said
However, in general, radiation-related risks remain. In particular, it is necessary to carefully study the chance of tritium getting into water bodies, the expert believes.
“While many isotopes formed during nuclear power plant operations can be captured, tritium still enters the environment because it cannot be captured. It poses a significant danger to living organisms because its absorption can lead to mutations and other damage,” the expert said.
Research conducted near operating NPPs shows elevated levels of tritium in water, soil, and food. Moreover, according to research, children living near NPPs have a significantly higher incidence of leukaemia and other cancer diseases, said Svetlana Mogilyuk.
In addition, she believes that nuclear power plants are not a stable energy source. For example, the nuclear power plant in Belarus, one of the most modern in the world, was only functioning half the time in 2022.
“The reasons for this are different, but it confirms the instability of nuclear power. In addition, periodic technical shutdowns are required to reload fuel, which causes forced pauses in the plant’s operation, and the lack of energy needs to be compensated with something else,” she said.
Therefore, the statement about completely uninterrupted operation does not apply to NPPs of any type, especially regarding technical shutdowns for restart for VVER-type reactors, she notes.
“Although, as the International Atomic Energy Agency points out, power plants with small modular reactors can be reloaded less frequently – every 3-7 years, while traditional plants require it every 1-2 years,” said Svetlana Mogilyuk.
In addition, she notes that the choice of such a vulnerable location as Lake Tuzkon in Uzbekistan for constructing a nuclear power plant seems strange.
“Lake Tuzkon has already undergone significant anthropogenic changes and is now an artificial water body with an unstable regulatory system,” she said.
New Jobs
Claims that nuclear energy will create many additional jobs are also not entirely true, the expert emphasises.
She believes that more jobs will be created by the active introduction of solar energy, given Uzbekistan’s hot weather.
“It is one of the most labour-intensive industries – it provides about 5,000 jobs per capacity unit (1 megawatt). As for the nuclear energy sector, it provides only 1,000 jobs per 1 megawatt. In addition, these jobs at nuclear power plants require very high qualifications,” she emphasised.
Although the personnel are being trained now, and there is training in universities, this is a very small proportion of people, and it will not provide the employment promised to the residents of the Jizzakh region of Uzbekistan, Svetlana Mogilyuk said.
“Residents are told that building a nuclear power plant on their territory will provide them jobs. However, in my opinion, they will work in the sphere of providing service to the power plant staff in the best case. For example, this was the case at the Shevchenko NPP,” she says.
In addition, working at NPPs in any country, even during construction, requires particularly high qualifications, and this work, especially at the initial stage of nuclear power development in the country, is mainly performed by invited experts from other countries. At the same time, renewable energy technologies offer more accessible jobs in terms of qualifications. It is easier and faster for the local population to acquire qualifications for working with renewable energy technologies.
Economic Risks
The NPP construction requires large investments, as well as long-term financial costs for the plant’s operation, maintenance, and decontamination. A significant amount, sometimes amounting to 10-15% of the construction cost, may be required to shut down the NPP. In the case of the Uzbek NPP, it may reach billions of dollars.
If we consider the whole process – from uranium mining to shutting down the nuclear plant – it will become extremely costly, burdening both taxpayers and businesses, says Svetlana Mogilyuk.
“Representatives of business in Kazakhstan, with whom we, environmental experts, spoke, shared the results of their calculations: according to their models, nuclear energy use will increase the cost of production to an unfavourable level, which will make it uncompetitive on the market,” she said.
She believes that in the end, nuclear power could cause serious damage to the economy, first, by requiring significant investments in the construction of nuclear power plants, and second, by reducing the competitiveness of manufactured goods.
“In my opinion, the situation will be similar for Uzbekistan: high costs will fall on both taxpayers and businesses,” says Svetlana Mogilyuk.
The cost of NPP construction is increasing significantly, given the volatility of global markets, currency fluctuations, and technological difficulties.
Despite the availability of natural resources and the ambition for economic development, Uzbekistan may face a shortage of financial resources to implement such large-scale projects. The cost of maintaining NPPs in operational mode and the potential costs of emergency response could significantly affect the country’s economic sustainability.
Human Factor and Credibility of the Project
Lack of proper management, control, and monitoring in such projects can lead to accidents that cause severe damage. The breach of the Sardoba reservoir, caused by negligence in technical control, reinforces these concerns, according to experts from Kazakhstan.
Lack of Information and Transparency
Many local activists complain about the lack of detailed information about the project, its safety, and ecology. Professionals note violations of Uzbekistan’s requirements and obligations under international conventions, including the Convention on the Protection and Use of Transboundary Watercourses (Helsinki Convention). The lack of sufficient public discussion and transparency in decision-making only increases mistrust and generates rumours of possible risks.
The project to build nuclear power plants in Uzbekistan is a step aimed at strengthening energy security, but there are several serious risks in its implementation that require a careful and critical approach, experts believe.