In foreign analytical articles in March, Central Asia was highlighted in the context of parliamentary elections in Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan, security threats in Tajikistan, constitutional changes in Uzbekistan, developing railway connections in the region, Blinken’s visit to the region, and other topics.
Kazakhstan’s new parliament has old look after reset falls short
The Nikkei Asia analytical platform discusses the parliamentary elections that took place in Kazakhstan on March 19. It states that the elections have resulted in a new parliament that looks much like the old one, with the ruling Amanat party retaining a majority of seats.
This outcome comes after President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev promised a political “reset” that would allow for greater political competition and openness. This election did look different on the surface, with more parties to choose from and self-nominated candidates. There was a choice beyond the party list for the first time in nearly two decades with a mixed system of proportional representation and single-seat constituencies.
Yet while voters may have had more choice, ultimately little has changed. Preliminary results showed the ruling party Amanat winning over 50% of the proportional vote and five other government-loyal parties breaching the 5% threshold to enter parliament. Armed with the most financial and administrative resources, Amanat also secured 23 of the 29 single-mandate seats. No credible candidates known to be critical of the authorities were elected to the other six seats.
The election process was marred by allegations of voter intimidation, ballot stuffing, and censorship of opposition voices, the article reports. The opposition parties that were able to run faced significant hurdles, such as needing to gather large numbers of signatures in a short amount of time and being barred from state media coverage. Critics of the election process argue that it failed to live up to Tokayev’s promises of reform and until meaningful political reform is delivered, there will always be a threat of grassroots protest and political instability in the country.
Planned Rail Connection with China Will Elevate Kyrgyzstan’s Strategic Importance
A Jamestown Foundation article reports that Kyrgyzstan is set to benefit from a planned railway connection with China that will boost its strategic importance in the region. It was announced that by the end of 2023, Kyrgyzstan will begin the construction of its part of the strategic China–Kyrgyzstan–Uzbekistan railway line.
It is believed that China, Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan have settled all technical issues related to the construction of the railway line, including considerations on the railway’s route inside Kyrgyzstani territory and the size of the railway track gauge. This leaves only the funding mechanism to still be negotiated after the feasibility study by China is completed this summer. The Chinese engineers have set up offices in Bishkek and are active on the ground, which attests to the fact that, this time, all parties seem committed to seeing this project through. The final feasibility study by the Design and Survey Institute of the China Railway Group is expected to be complete by June 1, the article reports.
The new transport infrastructure will enable Kyrgyzstan to become a hub for transit trade between China and Europe, as well as boosting its domestic economy by facilitating the transportation of goods and people. Overall, if the political situation in Kyrgyzstan remains stable with Japarov at the helm, beginning construction on the China–Kyrgyzstan–Uzbekistan railway line will mark yet another key milestone for the country in achieving its delineated foreign policy goals.
Kyrgyzstan: Free the 22 ‘Kempir-Abad’ Protest Detainees
Human Rights Watch (HRW) has once again urged the Kyrgyzstan government to immediately release 22 people who were detained for protesting against the disagreeing with the impending transfer of jurisdiction over an important dam, Kempir-Abad, to Uzbekistan as part of a border demarcation deal.
The detainees have now spent five months behind bars in facilities unsuitable for long-term detention, even though international law provides that pretrial detention should only be used as an exception, and for as short a time as possible. In January and February 2023, three detainees among an original group of 25 were transferred to house arrest due to their deteriorated health. On February 17, the Bishkek district court extended the pretrial detention of the remaining 22 activists until April 20.
On March 17, relatives of the detainees held a protest under the slogan of “For Justice and Freedom” calling for their release, among other demands. There have been several other protests by the detainees’ relatives in the months since their detention, with a protest in January resulting in detention of 27 relatives, all of whom were released the same day.
Tajikistan Sinks to Worst Rating in New Global Report on Civic Freedoms
The Eurasia Review platform informs that Tajikistan has been downgraded from ‘repressed’ to ‘closed’ in a new report by the CIVICUS Monitor, a global research collaboration that rates and tracks fundamental freedoms in 197 countries and territories. According to the report, repressive measures taken by the authorities in response to mass protests in the Gorno-Badakhshan Autonomous Region (GBAO) led to the downgrade.
‘Closed’ is the worst rating a country can receive by the CIVICUS Monitor. At least 20 human rights activists and journalists critical of the government’s policies in the GBAO have been detained and prosecuted. In a recent case, on 9 December 2022, Tajikistan’s Supreme Court handed down lengthy prison sentences to several human rights activists who were targeted for their efforts to monitor, document and assist victims of the government’s crackdown in GBAO.
Recent arbitrary closures of NGOs are also of particular concern. In January 2023 the NGO Independent Centre for Human Rights Protection (ICHRP) was liquidated by court order on spurious and unsubstantiated grounds. Another human rights NGO, the Pamiri Lawyers Association was informed by the Ministry of Justice at the end of 2022 that it had been liquidated, without any court review.
Tajikistan Faces Threat from Tajik Taliban
The Central Asia – Caucasus Analyst published an analytical piece by Sudha Ramachandran on a Taliban-affiliated group, the Tehrik-e-Taliban Tajikistan (TTT).
The article provides a background for the organisation and argues that its so-called “emergence” in July last year marked the renaming/rebranding of fighters who were already active in the region. In the past, the goal of the Tajik Islamists was to oust the secular government of Tajikistan’s President Emomali Rahmon, but their focus has expanded over the past decade. In their current role as a Taliban-appointed force in charge of several border districts in Badakhshan, they are targeting the Afghan Tajik-dominated anti-Taliban National Resistance Force (NRF) and Tajikistan’s government, which is said to be sheltering the NRF, as well as the Islamic State-Khorasan Province (ISKP).
The rise of the TTT in the Afghanistan-Tajikistan border areas will add to President Rahmon’s woes, the article argues. Global attention over the past year has been focused on Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan and its string of violent attacks in Pakistan. Meanwhile, the TTT profile and presence in northern Afghanistan has been rising quietly. The TTT is well-armed and dangerous. It is a non-state actor which operates with the full support and protection of the Taliban regime. As it steps up operations against its enemies and pursues them into their safe havens in Tajikistan and elsewhere, the situation along the Afghan-Tajik border could ignite tensions. Tajikistan’s already fraught relationship with the Taliban regime could worsen in the coming months, warns the author.
Turkmenistan Votes for New, Opposition-free Parliament
Parliamentary elections took place in Turkmenistan as well. As Associated Press reports, it is expected that the new parliament will have no members of opposition parties and be loyal to the government. The election for 125 members included 258 candidates put forward by three political parties or running independently. All of them support President Serdar Berdymuhamedov.
Although the central elections commission reported that 91 percent of the electorate turned out, there did not appear to be long lines at the voting stations, the article reports. Both Berdymuhamedovs voted at the same polling station. In remarks shown on state television, the elder one said most of the candidates were representatives of the youth. “The fact that the youth contingent prevails in the composition of the deputy corps allows us to work out the national legislative and legal framework in accordance with the existing realities and the identified prospects,” he said.
The results of the elections were expected to be announced within several days.
Turkmen Women Kicked Out of Capital for Trying to See President
According to the Turkmen.news portal, on March 6, around 30 women from different parts of the country gathered outside the presidential palace in Ashgabat asking president Berdymukhamedov to help in solving their problems.
Most of the women had grievances about the inaction and negligence by the law enforcement agencies. One woman wanted to tell the president that for three years the police had failed to open a criminal case over the rape of her daughter. The prosecutor’s office does not respond to complaints, even though the rapist’s identity is known. Another participant wanted to tell the head of state that her house in Mary had been burgled. The suspect is also known, but the law-enforcement agencies are in no hurry to punish him. A young disabled woman wanted to share her case about the apartment granted by the state that she cannot get access to because of the previous owners.
However, no one was there to listen to the group, the article reports. They were taken to the police station, kept there until the night without food or water, and made to write explanatory statements. Then the detained women were sent to their registered addresses.
The article highlights that going to the president and protesting is a very rare situation in the repressive country. However, these women were not necessarily critical of the government and oppositionist. On the contrary, they addressed the president as the guarantor of justice and protector. The detained women have written an appeal to him, describing what happened and hoping that they can finally meet him.
Uzbekistan’s Constitution: Three Major Changes Introduced and One Even More Important Provision Left Unchanged
Eurasia Review writes about the three major changes in the new draft of the Uzbek Constitution that is set to go to the voters for approval. First, the new constitution reverses the principle of “the state, society, and the individual” and puts the interests of the individual in first place. The Eurasia Review argues that it is perhaps the most radical shift in a fundamental law in any of the 12 former Soviet republics since 1991. Moreover, the existing constitution did not address whether Uzbekistan must be a secular state. The new version does so, potentially opening the way to more sweeping crackdowns against those who favour Islamicizing the most populous country in the region. Finally, the new version of the Uzbek Constitution specifies that Uzbekistan is a mixed presidentialist-parliamentary regime in which the latter’s powers are significantly increased and those of the former correspondingly reduced.
However, the most important unchanged provision concerns the status of Karakalpakstan, the autonomous republic whose legal and constitutional standing President Shavkat Mirziyoyev wanted to downgrade. That prompted massive protests in the autonomy and forced the Uzbekistan president to back down.
Uzbekistan: Second Nukus trial ends with more lengthy prison sentences
An article by Eurasianet.org reports that a court in Uzbekistan on March 17 sentenced a second large group of people to lengthy prison terms over unrest in the autonomous republic of Karakalpakstan last summer that is said to have left 21 dead. The trial, which saw 39 people charged with a variety of offenses ranging from vandalism and robbery to rioting and disseminating material posing a threat to the public order, lasted just one month.
The turbulence that swept over Nukus in July of 2022 was triggered by discontent over plans to amend the constitution to deprive Karakalpakstan of the notional privilege to ever hold a referendum on declaring independence. The article states that it is unclear what prompted the government to pursue these constitutional reforms.
The article states that nobody has to date been charged specifically with responsibility for causing the deaths. According to the official account of events in the Karakalpak capital, Nukus, on July 1-2, four of the people killed were law enforcement officers. The remainder were civilians. No official list of named fatalities has yet been published.
Secretary Blinken Concludes Central Asia Trip
The Caspian Policy Center provides an overview for the U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken’s visit to Central Asia between February 28 and March 1. To discuss the strengthening of bilateral relations, Blinken met with the representatives of each of the five Central Asian countries and participated in the C5+1 Ministerial Meeting. This visit came after a series of increased high-level visits from the U.S. government to the region.
Commenting on the visit’s implications, Caspian Policy Center’s (CPC) advisory board member Bruce Pannier stressed that “the funds are targeted at projects that benefit Central Asia well into the future, with, most importantly, no huge debt or strings attached.” Especially considering the burdening debts China has imposed on the region, the United States’ condition-free offer is an opportunity for Central Asia to build a trusting relationship. During his interview with a journalist in Kazakhstan, Secretary Blinken made it clear that the priority for the United States in its engagement with the region is “providing a choice, making sure that, hopefully, we have something positive to offer, maybe helping countries create greater opportunity for their own people with good jobs, maybe working together to deal with something like climate change, to deal with having a good supply of energy, including renewable energy, so that we’re dealing with climate change.”
Expectations For Central Asia’s Development to 2030
The Silk Road Briefing platform provides the results of a study by analysts from the Kazakhstan Institute for Strategic Studies (KazISS), EY (Ernst & Young), and the Kazakhstan National Academy of Sciences on intraregional ties in Central Asia. They evaluated Central Asia’s capacity and readiness to cooperate, explore and implement the tools to facilitate the integration process as a major driver for economic transformation.
“56.4% of the participants believe the transformation of Central Asia into a transit hub is more likely than increased competition between our countries at 33.3%, indicating greater unity and collaboration than regional competition as a focus,” the article reports.
The importance of security in the region will continue to grow, according to 64.1% of the analysts, who identified combining the efforts of Central Asian countries to ensure security as the most likely trend by 2030. At the same time, 51.3% of the respondents consider the current level of integration processes as insufficient and found it necessary to create an organization of the Central Asian countries.
According to the EY Central Asia attractiveness report “With The Global Economy At A Crossroads, Which Way Will Central Asia Go?” published in November 2022, foreign investors are optimistic about their medium-term prospects in Central Asia. The disrupted trade flows through Central Asia due to the geopolitical crisis between Russia and Ukraine did not significantly impact investors, as 42% of the respondents in the survey did not make any changes to their investment plans in the region.
Only 16% of investors cancelled their investment plans completely or expect a slight decline in investment due to the obstacles caused by the conflict. In comparison, 28% of respondents see new opportunities, including establishing regional operations to mitigate trade sanctions against Russia.