Independent Kazakhstan has no healthy environment for the institutional opposition activity to grow and strengthen. The authorities prevented any attempts at the grassroots.
Every time, our opposition transforms and either turns into a fake one, or assimilates, or revives; people either agreed with Nazarbayev and left the country, or were murdered. Before 2005, it had been the naivety period, when the DVK party was expecting the Rose Revolution in Kazakhstan and political strategists thought they would soon join the parliament. The 2004 election totally contradicted their naivety because the election was rather transparent, competitive, and showed, despite the fabricated results, that the people chose mainly the opposition represented by Ak-Zhol party and the bloc of DVK-KPK, which in aggregate won more votes than Otan party (now Nur Otan). However, the most interesting thing was ahead, when the results were announced and the Otan party was reported as the absolute winner; but neither the leaders of the DVK party, nor the leaders of Ak-Zhol demanded from their supporters to protest. If they did it then, they would turn to their followers directly, and the situation would be intriguing in 2004.
The opposition was always in the process of destruction – during the presidential election just before the nomination of the single opposition candidate, a brick was thrown on the head of Asylbek Kozhakhmetov. In Shymkent, crime boss Arman Dzhumageldiev, also known as Wild Arman, broke into the meeting with the crowd; the first and second floors, where the opposition was meeting, were totally destroyed; people were beaten, they jumped off balconies on the second floor, while the roughnecks of Wild Arman were beating them severely. In the meantime, police officers were standing on the street and watching this outrage.
Afterwards, when the subsequent events became absolutely formal, Bulat Abilov, one of the leaders of “Azat” party, got rid of his party, while Kosanov was in conflict with Zhormakhan Tuyakbaev in OSDP and left, and the show started everywhere. When Galymzhan Zhakiyanov, who was released from the prison on purpose, left, the opposition almost stopped to exist.
It’s not the opposition, but rather civilian protest groups, which were more or less friendly, were taking part in the rallies. They went to the square together, supporting the Zhanaozen residents.
The opposition may revive only if Tokayev fails to pursue Nazarbayev’s repressive practice because when everyone is defeated, but weirdoes, idiots, and puppets, this cannot be called the opposition. Tokayev, given his sharpness and learned phrases, is unfortunately more resembling the official puppet, which is pulled by the strings and says all these phrases to prove to be a strong leader, but confuses mobs with civil activists, which already means a lot.
The people need opposition, but they don’t trust it, they don’t trust anyone. The key slogan is that opposition is corrupt, and Zhanbolat Mamai is a puppet. People do not want to take part in the changes, they fear civil activism, are scared of rallies.
Ablyazov’s protesting group has decreased sharply after Mamai took half of his Kazakh-speaking supporters. Internal conflicts and compromising materials have weakened the opposition even more and led to its degradation. In fact, nothing is available now but some discussion groups, including groups of civil activists.