The complex geopolitical situation, unresolved border problems, accompanied by bloody conflicts, determine the growth of militarization in Central Asia. Which countries export weapons to the Central Asian region and what trends in this area can be identified? To answer these questions, we have analyzed data from the Stockholm International Peace Institute (SIPRI).
The SIPRI methodology is a system for measuring the volume of deliveries of major conventional weapons and components using a common unit – the trend indicator value (TIV), which is intended to reflect its military potential, rather than its financial value.
For reference: TIV is derived from the known unit costs of producing a core set of weapons. It does not reflect the actual price paid for the weapon, nor the current dollar value of the arms supply. TIV can be used as raw data to calculate trends in international arms transfers over time periods, indicative global interest rates for suppliers and recipients, and percentage of the volume of transfers to or from certain countries [1].
SIPRI’s analysis demonstrates that in all Central Asian countries, except Turkmenistan, Russia is the leader in the supply of weapons. Of course, this is due to the fact that Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan are members of the CSTO, and Uzbekistan actively cooperates with Moscow on a bilateral level on security issues. However, the greatest interest in the data is which countries occupy the second and third positions in the export of their weapons.
The data for Kazakhstan illustrates the most diversified list of suppliers, which includes countries like Canada, South Korea, Turkey, Israel, Ukraine, and many others. Russia owns 85% of all imports. European countries rank second with 6%, followed by Ukraine with 3%. The United States and Israel were able to supply Kazakhstan with weapons by 1.3% each. The smallest share is China, which has supplied a total of 1.1% of weapons since 1991.
Commenting on this issue, Edward Lemon, an expert on Central Asia from the United States, rightly noted that “the primary supplier of Kazakhstan’s weapons remains Russia. But in an effort to diversify supplies it has bought arms from a range of countries in the EU. These efforts are part of broader efforts to adopt a multi-vector foreign policy to build ties with lots of partners and avoid dependence on any one external power.”
Kyrgyzstan has three stable arms suppliers, with Russia topping the list with a (TIV) value of 53, and Kazakhstan and China at 5 and 1, respectively.
Central Asia expert from the USA, Edward Lemon, noted that “the Tajik and Kyrgyz militaries inherited Soviet weapons, making them somewhat dependent on Russian supplies after independence. As the poorest countries in the region, they are not in a position like the other states to diversify weapons supplies. In effect, most of the arms that have been transferred to the country have been donated by Russia as part of its security assistance. The existence of the Russian base in Tajikistan and CSTO base in Kyrgyzstan is important as it allows Russian specialists to train their Central Asian counterparts on the weapons.”
In the table below, one can see that Tajikistan receives arms imports from a very limited number of countries. Russia owns 110 (TIV), while China has only 4 (TIV) and Bulgaria has 3 (TIV) since 1991. As one can see, Russia has been a leader in the import of weapons in Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan since 1991. Russian scientist, political scientist, and orientalist Vasily Kashin argues that “this is mainly due to the fact that the countries are members of the CSTO and receive Russian weapons at significantly reduced prices.” He also noted that “unlike Kazakhstan, countries such as Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan have limited arms procurement opportunities. They mainly receive it in the form of assistance, and here the main source is again Russia.”
Contrary to the expectations of Russia’s leadership, Turkey is ahead in the list of arms importers in Turkmenistan – 46 (TIV). In addition, countries such as Russia, China, Ukraine, Europe, and others are suppliers of arms to Turkmenistan.
As it can be seen from the graph, Turkmenistan is also trying to diversify its military-technical cooperation. At the same time, Vasily Kashin believes that “given its neutral status, Turkmenistan has this aspiration more pronounced than other countries in the region.”
Turkmenistan has been Turkey’s single largest arms purchaser for five years. Edward Lemon explains this from a holistic perspective: “Turkey has been a key supplier of arms to Turkmenistan as the country has looked to modernize its military, supplying patrol ships and armored personnel carriers among others. Like other Central Asian states, Turkmenistan has tried to diversify imports to avoid dependence on any one external power. Turkey’s common Turkic identity may play a small role here. But I think it is more about effective market penetration by Turkish suppliers coupled with a desire to have a range of suppliers on the part of Turkmenistan.”
In addition, as noted by Edward Lemon, “the SIPRI figures miss Italy’s role in the arms market of Turkmenistan. Our figures, which include SIPRI, EU export figures and local media reports, indicate that Italy is the largest supplier. This is related to the purchase of AgustaWestland AW-139 helicopters in 2011 and signing a mammoth deal worth over $500 million in 2019, which seems to have been for Aermacchi M-346 jets.”
Another notable trend in arms imports is the growth in arms supplies from China to Turkmenistan since 2016. As Edward Lemon explains, that the spike is explained by Turkmenistan purchasing the HQ-9 air defense system in 2016. “This was purchased with supplies of gas to China. But this agreement broke down. By January 2019, China had placed Turkmenistan on a military blacklist, ceasing all military exports to the country after Ashgabat struggled to pay back a loan issued by Beijing after its gas production plummeted.”
Vasily Kashin added that “the supply of Chinese arms to Turkmenistan may be associated with a complex system of offsets that may exist between the two countries, given their cooperation in energy and infrastructure. China sometimes supplies weapons to its privileged partners at substantially reduced prices.”
While many Central Asian countries are trying to diversify their military imports, Uzbekistan still has close ties with Russia. “The supply of Chinese weapons to Uzbekistan (drones and HQ-9 anti-aircraft missile systems) is also in line with the policy of diversifying ties in the field of military-technical cooperation. Nevertheless, Russia remains (and will remain for the foreseeable future) the main partner of Uzbekistan in the field of security and defense, given the alliance agreement of 2005 and close military ties between the two countries. There is no doubt that Uzbekistan will try to build a certain balance in cooperation with Russia and China, since this will strengthen its position both in relations with Moscow and in relations with Beijing. This is natural and expected. Nevertheless, cooperation with Russia will be more ambitious in the foreseeable future,” – said Vasily Kashin.
While Russia is still the leader in arms shipments to Uzbekistan, China is also keeping pace with Russia with a supply gap of 20 (TIV). France, Spain, and the United States also import weapons to Uzbekistan, albeit in insignificant quantities compared to the aforementioned countries.
“Uzbekistan is going through a process of military modernization. Since Karimov’s death, security ties between Russia and Uzbekistan have strengthened. Russia held its first exercise in Uzbekistan in 12 years in 2017. Around 60% of weapons imports have been supplied by Russia. But relations with China have also grown, with an increasing number of exercises and the purchase of the HQ-9 air defense system in 2015. There is certainly scope for more cooperation. This is something that Chinese companies are interested in and that the Uzbek side are also likely interested in to avoid dependence on Russia” concluded Edward Lemon.
Thus, Uzbekistan is simultaneously balancing relations between Russia and China. At the same time, in the future, it will be possible to notice an increase in cooperation between Uzbekistan and China, but Russia will remain a major partner in arms.
Summing up, we can conclude that every country in Central Asia is trying to diversify arms imports, which pushes countries to cooperate with China and Turkey, as well as with European and other states of the world.
- Stockholm International Peace Research Institute. Holtom P., Bromley M., Simmel W. The International Dimension of Arms Supply https://www.sipri.org/sites/default/files/files/FS/SIPRIFS1212.pdf
- Stockholm International Peace Research Institute. Import of Arms to Kyrgyzstan https://armstrade.sipri.org/armstrade/html/export_values.php
- Stockholm International Peace Research Institute. Import of Arms to Tajikistan https://armstrade.sipri.org/armstrade/html/export_values.php
- Stockholm International Peace Research Institute. Import of Arms to Kazakhstan https://armstrade.sipri.org/armstrade/html/export_values.php
- Stockholm International Peace Research Institute. Import of Arms to Turkmenistan https://armstrade.sipri.org/armstrade/html/export_values.php
- Stockholm International Peace Research Institute. Import of Arms to Uzbekistan https://armstrade.sipri.org/armstrade/html/export_values.php