Central Asia is facing a number of natural disasters, but earthquakes pose the highest risk in terms of potential loss of life and economic damage. A significant area of Central Asia, including almost all major cities, is in a zone of high seismic risk.
* The data that the authors worked with in this article are quantitative risk characteristics based on existing global risk models and CAREC databases. The risk profiles of each country contain information on earthquake risks at the national and regional level.
Over the past 100 years, strong earthquakes have occurred in every country in the region, killing hundreds of thousands of people and causing billions of dollars in damage.
Even in the absence of strong earthquakes, 200 people die in the region. This indicates the stable dangers that are present in the daily life of every resident of the region.
The region loses about half a billion dollars annually from earthquakes alone.
The countries with the lowest GDP, like Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan, feel the losses much more strongly. Annually, earthquake damage alone in Kyrgyzstan amounts to $72,400,000. The state does not have the ability to cover at least half of the losses. 400 million soms ($4.7 million) are allocated annually from the budget to prevent natural disasters.
In the World Bank study “Country Risk Profiles for Floods and Earthquakes” (2015), the range of estimated GDP based on the choice of climatic and socio-economic scenarios for 2080 shows larger losses. So, the report says that if the country had experienced an earthquake with a return period of 250 years in 2015, the damage to GDP would have amounted to $ 4 billion. The damage is affected by population growth, urbanization and an increase in assets at risk.
Kyrgyzstan ranks first in the number of daily earthquakes – about 300. There are about 13,000 of them per year. The highest risks of destruction and human casualties from earthquakes of magnitude 7.3-7.5 may be in areas located in the zone of influence of the Ferghana and Issyk-Ata faults.
The most earthquake–prone area is the Alai Valley in the south of Kyrgyzstan – it is surrounded by two mountain systems – the Pamirs and the Tan Shan. Another dangerous area is the Issyk—Kul region, which is part of the zone of the Northern Tien Shan and the South Ferghana fault.
“In Kyrgyzstan, earthquakes, like in Turkey, occur 1 time a year 3 000 — 5 000 years. Strength of 5-6 points — 1 time in 50-60 years. Imperceptible — about 300 times a day,” – President of NAS Kanatbek Abdrakhmatov. (by tazabek.kg )
Registration of earthquakes with the help of scientific instruments began only around 1900. It is currently impossible to accurately predict earthquakes. There are methods for detecting changes in seismic activity and deformations in the earth’s crust, which may indicate an increased probability of an earthquake, but based on these methods it is impossible to tell its exact time or place.
Knowing the frequency of earthquakes and the most dangerous areas makes it possible to avoid areas with the highest risk, carefully monitor the quality of construction, especially critical facilities such as large dams, power plants, social institutions such as hospitals and schools, it is necessary to conduct a more detailed analysis to determine the expected level of earthquakes in a particular place.
The sources are available at the link: https://bit.ly/earthquakesinCentralAsia