The upcoming snap presidential election will expectedly end up with the absolute win of current president Kassym-Jomart Tokayev. There are no chances for any opponent to win the required number of votes, according to experts.
On October 21, the election campaign kicked off in Kazakhstan ahead of the snap presidential election to be held on November 20, 2022, two years ahead of the schedule. Six persons, including the incumbent head of state, started their campaigns. All opponents of Kassym-Jomart Tokayev are little-known figures who have little experience of political activity.
Let’s start with the candidates who dropped out
After Kassym-Jomart Tokayev made a statement on early election on September 1, 15 persons declared their intention to run for president of Kazakhstan. Two of them, ethnic Kazak from Poland Balli Marzec and Kazakhstan-based Inga Imanbai, spouse of the leader of unregistered democratic party of Kazakhstan, Zhanbolat Mamai, failed to have their documents received. The reason is the failure to meet the law “On elections.” Balli Marzec, who represents herself as the leader of opposition of Kazakhstan abroad, has not resided in the country in the last 15 years, while Inga Imanbai is not 40.
Another candidate – politician, representative of opposition Amirzhan Kosanov, who won second place during the 2019 election, all of a sudden stated that was not running for president. He explained his decision by the fact that the democratic coalition, of which he is the member, wanted to nominate another candidate and he did not want to compete against him. Another argument, according to Kosanov, was the risk of repetition of the January events if a strong representative of the opposition party took part in the election.
The remaining 12 persons submitted their documents to the Central Election Commission, yet only six were officially registered.
Among those who dropped out even before the political contest was economist, ex-vice minister of agriculture of Kazakhstan, deputy of the lower house of parliament Nurzhan Altaev, who was nominated by republican public association “Mukalmas”. CEC had to stop verification of Altaev’s documents because of the statement from “Mukamas” members about forged protocol of the candidate’s nomination. According to the press service of the court of Astana, the fact that the document was forged was confirmed by the court of Baikonyr district of the capital. Altaev tried to appeal against the ruling, but the civil chamber left the ruling unchanged.
Architect, one of the authors of tenge design, Khairulla Gabzhalilov, nominated by the association of oralman “Asar”, was not registered as a candidate as he did not have the public service record and was not born in another country. According to Kazakhstan law, the president may be only the person who was born in Kazakhstan.
Businessman, ex-deputy of the lower house of parliament, Talgat Yergaliev, who was nominated by the association of legal entities “Union of Construction Workers of Kazakhstan”, was refused because only public associations are entitled to nominate candidates, not business coalitions.
Another ex-parliamentarian, economist Zhumatai Aliev, known by his dubious initiatives of abolition of abortions or payment to bachelors of 2 thousand dollars once they got married, was also removed from the list. Most of voters’ signatures collected for the candidate turned to be fake.
CEC refused to register Bakyt Zhanabaev, employee of the Ministry of Finance of Kazakhstan, for the same reason. He was nominated by the Kazakhstan league of football fans.
The sixth candidate who was refused was Fatima Bizakova, coach, head of the republican public association “Practical Psychology”. She also did not have public service record in her career.
* Information about reasons for refusal to register was taken from official statements of CEC specialists.
Meet the candidates
The key figure of the snap election is incumbent president Kassym-Jomart Tokayev. He was nominated by several parties – Amanat (ruling party), People’s Party of Kazakhstan, Ak Zhol, and several public associations. The election platform of the head of state is based on the concept of “new Kazakhstan”, i.e. reforms that the president launched after the January events. The emphasis is placed on suppressing oligopoly, moving away from monopolisation of the economy, neutrality in foreign policy, and a large range of social issues.
The remaining five registered candidates require a brief preview. The survey held by journalists of Khabar TV channel in the framework of People’s Microphone programme showed that most respondents did not know the names of other candidates but Tokayev. The fact that election race participants are not known to the public can be explained by their biographies. Based on their service records, the candidates did not hold high posts in the government before, are not among the political elite, and are not business tycoons.
One of them is 67-year-old Zhiguli Dairabaev, chair of the Association of Farmers of Kazakhstan, member of the People’s Democratic Patriotic Party “Auyl”. He had not ran for any significant political offices earlier. His election programme is based on the agrarian policy and is oriented on regional support. The ideology of campaign promises consists of units relating to fight against corruption, revival of the agroindustrial complex, and recovery of the family institution role.
Little is known about the candidate of the opposition National Social Democratic Party (OSDP) Nurlan Auesbaev. He is the economist, chair of the capital branch office of OSDP, owned two security companies a few years ago, and had not been related to big business or mainstream politics. The social democrat has repeated the ideology of his programme at meetings with journalists. The key principles are fight against corruption and oligarchy, social justice in economy and politics.
His opponent Meiram Kazhyken nominated by the community of trade unions of Kazakhstan “Amanat” is the head of the “Institute of Studies of a Modern Society” Limited Liability Partnership and the initiator of the new party Yntymaq. Over the years, the doctor of economic sciences held posts of the head of economy department, Kazakhstan Institute for Industry Development, Research Institute of Innovation-Driven Economy. He is the author of the book “The theory of stability of the social and economic system”. Based on tax reports of the institute led by him, the company paid budget contributions only for last five years. In his campaign, Kazhyken emphasises the interests of workers, he is intending to hold comprehensive economic reforms as a president.
There are two women among registered candidates. Their fields of works are similar – both engaged in public and social projects. Saltanat Tursynbekova, nominated by the association “Kazak analary – dasturge zhol”, has worked in civil service, in prosecutor’s office for over 30 years. She is deputy chair of the National Committee for Women’s Affairs and Family and Demographic Politics. In her campaign, she focuses on family issues – improvement of well-being, security, education.
Karakat Abden, public figure, ex-deputy of maslikhat of Astana, stands for family values and parenting. She is nominated by the National Alliance of Professional Social Workers. She is the head of Women’s Institute of Cultural and Moral Education “Kazak kyzy”, the author of the book “You are the Kazakh woman. Be proud!”. Abden’s election programme is socially focused, it refers to free higher education, financial support of young families, treatment and rehabilitation of the elderly.
Expert opinion
Snap election is not a new thing for Kazakhstan. The first president of the country Nursultan Nazarbayev was elected five times and three elections were held ahead of schedule. The 2019 election, when Kassym-Jomart Tokayev became the head of state, was also snap election. According to professor of Kazakhstan-German University, political analyst, specialist in security in Central Asia, Rustam Burnashev, this is a classic version of manipulative practices.
“Moreover, elections are held without transforming the political system, which is not yet prepared to offer serious alternatives to the incumbent president in terms of both personality and offered ideologies. The 2022 election structure is no different from what we had in previous years,” the expert said.
There are few opponents to the incumbent president and they can hardly make a real competition to Kassym-Jomart Tokayev because these candidates have low political weight, he said.
“It’s very unlikely that some of the opponents will win the required number of votes. I can confidently assert that they will win far fewer votes than Amirzhan Kosanov did in last election (16 per cent – editor’s note),” Burnashev said.
Andrei Chebotarev, political analyst, director of the Centre of Relevant Studies “Alternativa”, agrees with his colleague as to the non-competitiveness of the candidates compared to the incumbent head of state.
“It’s more likely that Zhiguli Dairabaev and Nurlan Auesbaev will compete for second place. By all appearances, they focus more on drawing attention of potential voters taking into account the next year’s snap parliamentary and local elections. In other words, they work more not for their political career, but for the future electoral rating of their parties,” Chebotarev said.
According to him, the absence of strong rivals of Tokayev is also the result of obstacles put up by the election law of Kazakhstan in 2017. One of the requirements to presidential candidates is their civil service record or elective public office record for at least five years.
“Thus, a serious obstacle was put up by the moment of power transition from Nursultan Nazarbayev to Kassym-Jomart Tokayev in March 2019 so that to hinder possible nomination of leading business elite representatives for presidency. The same happens today,” the political analyst said.
According to recent amendments, the candidate winning this election can be the head of state for seven years without the right to re-election. This, according to Rustam Burnashev, ensures to some extent the change of heads of state and the adjustment of political programmes. However, it remains unclear whether the law does not change by the time of next election. Even in this case, it does not guarantee the change in the power structure and political competition.
“If we really transform the political environment, elements of party formation, then we can say that the idea of turnover of presidents will work. Otherwise, we will have the format of the so-called collective presidency. When a person changes, but the situation does not change. The example is Russia, when Medvedev replaced Putin,” Burnashev said.
Besides, this summer Kazakhstan adopted amendments to the law “On elections in the Republic of Kazakhstan”, which block participation of Kazakhstan-based companies funded from abroad as observers. According to experts, this will increase the risk of unfair elections.
According to Andrei Chebotarev, this election are taking place without the influence of ex-president Nursultan Nazarbayev and his inner circle. Its main purpose is to strengthen the position of Kassym-Jomart Tokayev in the political system of the country in the medium term.
Recall that Tokayev was supported by 70.96 per cent of voters in the 2019 election. And at the June 2022 referendum, the package of constitutional amendments proposed by him was voted for by 77 per cent of attending voters.
According to Chebotarev, the outcomes of various sociological surveys show that people trust the head of state. For example, according to independent Qalam Fund, he is the steady leader in the trust ranking among state authorities.
“Besides, the index of trust in him rose from June to September from 48 per cent to 59 per cent. And this is clear because he has another style of leadership, distance from special interest groups created during Nazarbayev’s presidency, emphasis on strengthening the policy of the state in governing and holding various transformations in politics, economy and social sphere,” the political analyst said.
And because there is no strong alternative at this election, we can expect that the number of votes cast for Tokayev will increase compared to previous election.
“Some voters associate domestic political stability and foreign political neutrality of Kazakhstan, which is essential this year, with him. Other Kazakhstanis expect that he will complete the reforms he had announced. However, much will depend on the voter turnout,” Chebotarev said.
He said that Tokayev became the full-fledged head of state making important decisions and being responsible for them only this year, when the dualism of state power was eliminated. Before that, he was restricted in his capacities to resolve many issues. Therefore, almost one half of his office term was spent on acts, which he did not plan and he did not voice officially in 2019, upon coming to power.