During the expert meeting organised by CABAR.asia analytical platform on October 27, the experts concluded that Central Asian countries had to strengthen integration to resolve food security issues.
Food security is one of the important components of the national security of countries; this indicator is connected to political and social stability. The sustainability and prosperity of the state depend on the provision of food and compliance of the food consumption norms with the healthy nutrition norms.
The COVID-19 Pandemic Aggravated the Plight of the Poor in Central Asia
Even though the fact that all countries of the region pay great attention to food security issues, the situation is alarming, according to the experts. The pandemic and its consequences have led to an increase in poverty and extreme poverty rates in the countries of the region.
The experts highlighted that the poverty rate increased by 5% in Kyrgyzstan during the pandemic. In 2020, it was 25.3%. According to the World Bank, in 2019, this indicator was 20.1%.
Nurlan Atakanov, one of the developers of the Food Security and Nutrition Program of the Kyrgyz Republic for 2019-2023, stated that the extreme poverty rate increased by 5% in the country. This indicator determines the level of food consumption of the population. Poor people cannot afford healthy nutrition, and the share of food expenses in their families is constantly growing. Their diet consists mostly of flour-based food.
Meanwhile, 34% of the flour in Kyrgyzstan is imported, mainly from neighbouring Kazakhstan, since the local farmers are not able to grow wheat with sufficient gluten levels due to limited cultivation areas and climatic conditions.
“The food prices have increased, on average, by 20%. Moreover, they have increased in rural areas as well, where 63% of the population make up about 14% of GDP. Poverty is higher among the rural population. The purchasing power of the population has decreased,” said the expert from Kyrgyzstan.
In general, the situation is alarming, according to Atakanov. Kyrgyzstan can provide the population with vegetables, melons, milk, potatoes, and (partially) with sugar and meat. However, the situation with vegetable oil is catastrophic, he says.
“Currently, we depend on vegetable oil supplies by 70%. It is imported mainly from Russia and Kazakhstan. Despite all the efforts, the price of this product has increased significantly over the past two years. Since the beginning of this year, it has grown by 20%; if we add the growth during the last year, it is about 50-60%,” he said.
Kyrgyzstan residents consume very few berries and fruits – only 30% of the healthy nutrition norm.
“Of course, the situation with berries and fruits is alarming, although the country is located in the south. This is caused by the fact that the processing of berries and fruits, including deep processing, is underdeveloped in the country. That is, people eat berries and fruits during the fruit season; due to the lack or insufficient capacities for processing and storing fruits, this process stops, and the consumption level falls,” Atakanov said.
Situation Is Similar in Tajikistan
The World Bank’s research “Poverty in Tajikistan 2021” found that the share of households reporting reduced food consumption increased to 33% in August 2021 compared with 28% in August 2020. A sharp increase in consumer prices coupled with falling household wage during the pandemic has resulted in the rise of food insecurity, the research states.
An economist, Professor Khojimahmad Umarov says Tajikistan has perfect conditions for ensuring food security: good weather conditions and sufficient water for irrigation. However, in reality, Tajikistan is highly dependent on external food supplies.
Despite the good climatic conditions and water, there are extremely low yields of some agricultural crops in the country. Lack of production and processing facilities and other problems deteriorate agriculture.
“The wheat yield, for example, is 27-30 hundred kilograms per hectare. In the south of the Russian Federation – in Rostov region, the yield is 67-70 hundred kilograms per hectare. It could be up to 90 hundred kilograms per hectare for us, but we have a shortage of both mineral and organic fertilizers, and there is a lack of human resources: agriculturists, livestock specialists, other specialists in agriculture, who could contribute to receiving a good harvest,” Umarov said.
Situation in Uzbekistan
The critical changes in food security in Uzbekistan in the near future are not foreseen. Nevertheless, there are risks that can affect food security not only in Uzbekistan but in the entire region, according to an economist from Uzbekistan, General Director of “Double A Solutions” company Abdulla Abdukadirov.
First, these are the problems with water, irrigation, and dynamic growth of the population in Central Asian countries, while the increase in food resources and GDP growth do not always correspond to those indicators.
According to Abdukadirov, now, the country is paying close attention to the introduction of new technologies in agriculture: drip irrigation and cluster agriculture – planting crops near the corresponding production enterprise. In addition, we should pay attention to another challenge Central Asian countries face – the terrorist organisation Taliban coming to power. According to the expert, this situation is not directly related to food security, however, their ideology may have an impact on it.
“The poor, those who do not have access to nutritious food usually fall under the influence of ideologies that call for redistribution of everything in any way,” said the expert from Uzbekistan Abdulla Abdukadirov.
Situation in Kazakhstan
An expert from Kazakhstan, senior analyst at BLM Group Daulet Assylbekov believes that Kazakhstan also has many problems in the field of food security, despite being one of the largest agricultural countries and one of the world’s largest wheat exporters.
“We depend on external food supplies, except for grain and meat. For example, the import of dairy products amounts to $318 million. The import of vegetables is over $150 million. Tomatoes, grapes, melons, watermelons, nuts are imported to Kazakhstan,” Assylbekov said.
The pandemic has affected the food supply. Kazakhstan also faces problems that exist in the neighbouring countries – increase in prices and lower harvests due to drought.
The share of the socially vulnerable population is increasing, as is the gap between the poor and the rich. The share of food consumption among the population increased to 57%. The forecasts are still bad, the Kazakh expert says.
“Moreover, the established supply chains that worked for years were destroyed during the pandemic. This had very negative consequences for our country. The restrictions introduced during the pandemic affected the entire situation. Our harvest was very low. According to the Ministry of Agriculture, our harvest has decreased by almost 30%, and therefore, the flour prices increased, including in neighbouring countries. The prices for many important vegetables (carrots, potatoes, and many other food products) have increased several times in summer and spring. There was a shortage of these products. We can see that there are problems in Kazakhstan and the situation is not improving,” Asylbekov said.
Integration Between Central Asian Countries Is Necessary
All experts who participated in the meeting believe that the countries of the region have to cooperate to resolve the problems in the field of food security.
The economist from Uzbekistan Abdulla Abdukadirov believes that first, the governments of the countries need to resolve the issues of delimitation and demarcation of borders. This will reduce tensions and improve interactions on water, food and goods supply.
The border delimitation is important when it comes to water resources management, according to him.
In fact, the countries cooperate with each other and have dozens of signed agreements, however, it is necessary to strengthen cooperation. This includes the cooperation on the issues of transit of goods, industrial production, energy sector, and others. These sectors are interconnected, and cooperation will help improve food security in the countries of the region.
“In general, the volume of food production is decreasing all over the world. The period of the pandemic demonstrated that the demand for food is growing. Reduced supply and increased demand will lead to continuing increase in food prices. Accordingly, the share of socially vulnerable segments of the population will grow in Central Asia. This is why we need cooperation – to solve these problems together. The rational use of all the resources we have is the most important task for all countries,” Abdukadirov said.
The experts made a number of recommendations that will contribute to the improvement of food security.
Recommendations:
- To the policymakers: to resolve food security issues in an integrated manner within the framework of increasing regional cooperation.
- The structure of imports and exports of food products in the countries of the region is transparent and clear. Therefore, it is necessary to establish and operate under long-term contracts with forward prices. Pricing should be in a stable currency.
- To establish marketing services for the agricultural production to determine prices for future crops and deliveries to the countries of the region. To pay special attention to marketing research to know in advance which regions require a certain volume of a particular product.
- To create regional business associations that will operate in all countries of the region within the existing regulatory framework.
- To business associations: to establish relationships with entrepreneurs from neighbouring countries on mutually beneficial terms with modern tools, while relying on local authorities. The experts note that when the entrepreneurs try to achieve the results, the sanitary services, police, border guards, and other structures do not give them the opportunity to develop.
- To reduce the number of economic barriers on the borders. Non-market methods to reduce competition aggravate food security.
- To conduct a detailed analysis of the environmental situation in the region. To study the ecological situation and contribute to its improvement.
- To introduce ecosystem services. To strengthen cooperation on issues such as reducing the population of bees and honey plants.
- To learn from each other’s experience in increasing efficiency: irrigation system, drip irrigation, to engage in the cultural and technological exchange of information.
- To donors: to be more specific about their goals and objectives in the Central Asian region and to increase technical support for the establishment of cooperation and communication of the Central Asian markets with the markets of Russia, China, and other countries.
The full version of the expert meeting can be found here: