Analytics
In September, foreign analytical articles on Central Asia focused on regional integration, energy issues, attacks on independent press, balancing foreign relations, and the 5th Consultative meeting of the Heads of State. (more…)
As discussions intensify over Greater Eurasian integration and cooperation in transport and logistics—with a special focus on involving Central Asian nations—it’s become crucial to establish a format for meetings among Central Asian leaders to bolster regional collaboration. The Consultative Meeting of Central Asian countries, convened on September 14, 2023, serves as a foundational stone for processes in Greater Eurasia, marking significant achievements including the formation of a joint commission to oversee the execution of agreements aimed at enhancing land transport connectivity in Central Asia.
IWPR experts believe that the first summit of the Central Asian and US presidents held in New York is mainly symbolic in nature. They believe that the most important decisions for these countries will continue to be taken at the bilateral level. For the US, however, it is important for the Central Asian countries to comply with sanctions against Russia in order to prevent the export of dual-use goods to Russia. (more…)
Foreign analytical articles of August highlighted several important trends in the region, including increased civic engagement in Kazakhstan, strengthening US sanctions against companies in Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Turkmenistan’s growing relations with international actors in the infrastructure and energy spheres, dynamics in regional cooperation, etc. (more…)
The Central Asian countries were analyzed by foreign outlets in light of Kazakhstan’s strained relations with Russia, growing authoritarianism in Kyrgyzstan, army enlisting measures in Tajikistan, new census data from Turkmenistan, presidential elections in Uzbekistan, and other important developments in the region.
In March 2022, the self-proclaimed Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan set in motion an ambitious plan for the Qosh Tepa irrigation canal, a potential lifeline for drought-ridden Afghanistan. However, its construction casts a looming shadow over Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan downstream, exacerbating water scarcity threats. Central Asian nations can no longer afford to overlook Afghanistan’s water concerns. Amid the growing influence of climate change in the region, strategic preparations are essential to tackle the imminent challenges posed by the water crisis.
The Qosh Tepa Canal stands as a remarkable irrigation endeavour, marking a decade of ambitious projects in Central Asia. Spearheaded by Afghanistan’s National Development Company and funded by public resources, the canal’s reach spans an impressive 285 kilometres, boasting a width of 100 meters and a depth of 8 meters. Once completed, it aims to transform the agricultural landscape of Afghanistan’s arid northern provinces—Kaldar, Balkh, Jowzjan, and Faryab—by providing essential irrigation to over 550,000 hectares of farmland. This significant undertaking holds the promise of revitalizing the region’s agricultural prospects.
Interestingly, the Qosh Tepa Canal project had been in the works for several years before the Taliban ascended to power—a group labelled as a terrorist organization, forbidden in Central Asian nations. Notably, the groundwork and feasibility studies were initiated during Afghanistan’s former government, supported by USAID. However, it was under the Taliban’s direction that the project gained tangible momentum, and the progress is undeniably impressive. Planet Lab satellite images reveal that within a span of just over a year, from March 2022 to May 19, 2023, the Taliban managed to construct approximately 100 kilometres of the canal.
Qosh Tepa Canal Timelapse
Afghanistan’s Top Priority: Canal Construction’s Significance
Afghanistan grapples with an unparalleled humanitarian crisis as reported by the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO). Nearly 17 million people, constituting 40% of the nation’s population, confront severe food insecurity, as per the latest IPC assessment published on April 1, 2023 (categorized as IPC Level 3 Crisis or IPC 4 Emergency). The country’s economic and political turmoil, along with the ramifications of climate change, exacerbates the prevailing food insecurity.
With 80% of the populace reliant on agriculture for sustenance, the impact of climate change—evident through widespread droughts and natural disasters—profoundly influences crop growth periods and yields, escalating the peril of food shortages.
Amidst Afghanistan’s desert terrain, an abundant reserve of water resources lies untapped. Surprisingly, over 80% of the country’s water originates from the lofty Hindu Kush mountains, soaring above 2000 meters. These snow-capped peaks serve as nature’s reservoir, offering a continuous flow of water to major rivers throughout the year as the snow melts during summer.
Despite this natural wealth, Afghanistan grapples with a glaring deficiency in water supply infrastructure, posing colossal challenges in guaranteeing uninterrupted access to sufficient water for consumption. The backdrop of prolonged conflict and occupation has hindered the development of extensive hydraulic structures and canals, crucial for adequately catering to the population’s water needs. In response, the Qosh Tepe Canal project emerges as a vital endeavour, seeking to alleviate water scarcity in semi-desert Afghanistan.
Opium Plantations Flourish: Threat of Proliferation of Afghanistan’s “Northern Route”
As Afghanistan advances its agricultural pursuits through canal construction, it is anticipated that this development may inadvertently bolster the infamous “Northern Route,” facilitating the cultivation, production, and illicit trafficking of opium poppy. Notably, Afghanistan retains its unenviable status as the world’s largest opium poppy producer, with an estimated 328,000 hectares devoted to opium poppy cultivation in 2017. The so-called “Northern Route” serves as a conduit for narcotics originating in the northern regions of Afghanistan, traversing neighbouring states, including Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan, and Turkmenistan, en route to Russia.
Despite the Taliban’s proclamation of a poppy cultivation ban, opium prices have surged, fueling a thriving illegal trade within the country. As per UN reports, opium revenues skyrocketed from $425 million in 2021 to a staggering $1.4 billion in 2022.
The amalgamation of socio-economic and shadow elements outlined above unequivocally underscores the pivotal significance of the canal construction project for Afghanistan.
Canal construction quality
Assessing the quality of the canal’s construction raises serious doubts, evident from accessible materials and satellite imagery. The construction methods employed appear remarkably rudimentary, with a mere “digging” approach devoid of proper reinforcement or lining for the canal’s bottom and banks. Such an approach poses a grave risk, as significant water losses may occur due to seepage into the dry, sandy soil. The resulting loss of water in canals exacerbates the already pressing issues of salinization and waterlogging in irrigated lands, amplifying the risks of water loss to an alarming extent.
Water and environmental expert, Najibullah Sadid, sheds light on recent developments, noting erosion in parts of the canal’s diversion dam. Satellite images depict the dam brimming with water (indicated by a red circle), an anticipated consequence given the prevailing doubts surrounding the canal’s design and construction. These observations underscore the urgent need to address concerns surrounding the canal’s quality and sustainability.
In the realm of ambitious claims and rapid canal construction, the Qosh Tepa project serves as a critical tool for the Taliban in their pursuit of coveted international and domestic legitimacy.
Foremost, the swift progress on Qosh Tepa enables the Taliban to portray themselves as capable leaders driving the country’s development. By showcasing their ability to undertake ambitious infrastructure endeavours, they project an image of concern for Afghanistan’s future, appealing to public sentiment and consolidating their authority within the nation.
Moreover, the issue of canal construction holds significant transboundary implications, particularly for Central Asian countries. As transboundary water cooperation remains crucial on the international stage, the canal’s impact on neighbouring nations draws close attention and necessitates engagement with the Taliban. Through diplomatic collaboration, the Taliban can establish crucial ties and augment their legitimacy on the global stage.
The Canal’s Ripple Effect: Assessing Its Impact on Uzbekistan
Qosh Tepa’s construction casts a profound shadow of influence over the neighbouring states of Central Asia, unleashing substantial repercussions. Diverse assessments suggest that in the span of 5-6 years, upon the canal’s completion and operation, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan will face a notable decline in their average water intake capacity along the middle and lower reaches of the transboundary river—dropping from 80% to 65%. As a lifeblood for these nations, the Amu Darya’s waters hold immense significance, contributing a staggering 80% of all accessible water resources in the region.
The ramifications of water withdrawal in Afghanistan weigh heavily on Uzbekistan, primarily translating into a dearth of vital water resources to irrigate the critical cotton plantations sprawled across the Bukhara, Khorezm regions, and Karakalpakstan. With cotton reigning as the nation's primary agricultural crop, accounting for approximately 17% of its GDP, Uzbekistan's agricultural sector plays a pivotal role in the livelihoods of nearly 40% of its populace—directly and indirectly. Such reliance on irrigation is virtually all-encompassing for the cultivation of major crops. As per the Uzbekistan Statistical Committee, the nation's annual water consumption stands at an average of 51 km³, with agriculture alone accounting for about 90% of this total or roughly 46.8 km³.
Moreover, the cotton monoculture system's water-intensive practices have perpetuated a significant environmental calamity—the desiccation of the Aral Sea. This profound ecological fallout reverberates throughout the surrounding ecosystem, underscoring the far-reaching impacts of Uzbekistan's water management choices.
Canal Construction's Implications for Turkmenistan: Unraveling the Consequences
For Turkmenistan, the waters of the Amu Darya play a vital role in bolstering both agricultural and industrial endeavours. Leveraging the Amu Darya through water withdrawal for the extensive Karakum Canal enables irrigation and navigation across its remarkable 1,300-kilometer expanse, sustaining approximately 1.25 million hectares of irrigated land.
Given the country's predominantly arid landscape, water holds paramount value for its populace. However, the functioning of the canal and fluctuations in Amu Darya's water levels present persistent challenges that directly impact land productivity. In turn, this reverberates in the government's commitment to fulfilling the state order, wherein farmers are promised irrigation water, fertilizers, seeds, and agricultural machinery, while in return, they pledge to produce specific crop quantities at predetermined prices. An illustrative example surfaced in June 2023 when farmers in Lebap Velayat struggled to water cotton fields due to insufficient water reaching the area. Considering cotton's dominant role in Turkmenistan's agricultural landscape, akin to Uzbekistan, cotton monoculture constitutes approximately 10% of the country's GDP, and an astonishing 91% of all water resources are channelled towards its sustenance.
With climate change exacerbating water scarcity, any reductions in water supply could have cascading repercussions on both countries' agriculture and food security. Thus, the stakes remain exceedingly high as both nations grapple with the uncertainties and challenges presented by their shared water resources.
Legal Regulation of the Amudarya River: Existing Mechanisms of International Law
The intricacies surrounding the construction of the Qosh Tepa Canal in Afghanistan are further compounded by the absence of robust legal mechanisms governing water processes—a fundamental aspect of regulating water intake and river management across all countries in the basin
Afghanistan's exclusion from the UN Convention on the Protection and Use of Transboundary Waters (1992) bears significant consequences. This convention, a cornerstone of transboundary river and lake management, defines crucial concepts like "transboundary impact," essential in assessing the environmental, social, and economic ramifications of water resource management. Lacking adherence to these principles, Afghanistan embarks on canal construction without being bound by international norms. As a result, agreements governing the Amu Darya's use remain absent between Afghanistan and Central Asian countries. Notably, the 1992 Almaty Agreement, responsible for overseeing the river's utilization, excludes Afghanistan, while the 1946 Agreement with the USSR has lost force, lacking specific Amu Darya water allocation provisions for the country. Addressing these legal gaps becomes critical as water resource complexities demand comprehensive regional cooperation.
Despite not being party to international conventions, Afghan Deputy Prime Minister Abdul Ghani Baradar asserted the nation's right to water resources "in accordance with international norms of international law" as the canal's construction commenced. This declaration underscores Afghanistan's pursuit of legal recognition and underscores its intent to secure legitimacy for the project.
Nonetheless, the dearth of legal regulations presents an additional challenge for countries downstream of the Amu Darya. The lack of binding agreements heightens uncertainty and highlights the pressing need for regional collaboration to address this contentious issue.
Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan's Response to Qosh Tepa Construction: Official Reactions
Despite Afghanistan's swift progress in building the canal, both Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan have chosen to remain mum on the matter, refraining from offering any official comments to date.
On March 22, 2023, a delegation from Uzbekistan embarked on a diplomatic visit to Afghanistan, aiming to address issues of economic partnership between the two nations. Central to the discussions were matters pertaining to the "Trans-Afghan project," which entails the construction of the Termez-Mazar-i-Sharif-Kabul-Peshawar railway and the installation of a power line along the Surkhan-Puli Khumri route. While the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Uzbekistan issued an official statement acknowledging the talks surrounding cooperation in the water and energy sectors, no explicit remarks were made regarding the canal's construction.
Meanwhile, in Turkmenistan, no official comments have been extended regarding the construction project of the Qosh Tepa Canal.
Policy Prescriptions and Prognostications
Amid prevailing circumstances, Central Asian countries confront an inescapable reality: impending water shortages loom large under the present water management paradigm. The contributing factors to this pressing issue encompass:
- Unchecked Consumption: The irrational utilization of water resources exacerbates the strain on already limited supplies, intensifying the scarcity challenges.
- Absence of Holistic Water Resources Management: The lack of a comprehensive approach to water resources management hampers efforts to optimize allocation and conservation, further compounding the crisis.
- Institutional Weakness: A frail institutional framework undermines effective governance and coordination, hindering the region's capacity to address the mounting water challenges.
- Climate Change Impacts: As the effects of climate change intensify, Central Asia witnesses heightened uncertainties, with shifting weather patterns altering water availability, making sustainable resource management an even more formidable task.
The advent of canal construction in Afghanistan adds a formidable challenge, one that the countries of Central Asia were ill-prepared to face. The lack of institutional and legal frameworks for managing water resources in Afghanistan underscores the complexity of this issue.
In light of the prevailing conditions, it is foreseeable that Uzbekistan will seek to bolster cooperation with Afghanistan by according legitimacy to Afghanistan's authority on the international stage. Embracing a barter system of agreements, Uzbekistan will likely engage in facilitating the passage of water flows during summer in exchange for the supply of electricity in winter—a resource already provided by Uzbekistan. Furthermore, the President of Uzbekistan has emphasized the priority of the Trans-Afghan railway's construction, underscoring its potential as a means of dialogue with Afghanistan.
As for Turkmenistan, an anticipated strengthening of cooperation may centre around the supply of gas to Afghanistan and the transit of Turkmen gas to Pakistan—an initiative that has already been set in motion. This existing collaboration may ease negotiations on regulating the canal's operations.
However, despite any agreements reached with Afghanistan, the unyielding reality remains that water resources will continue to dwindle, exacerbating the scarcity concerns regardless of the diplomatic endeavors in play. The region must grapple with the escalating shortage of water resources in the face of this multifaceted challenge.
To mitigate the risks surrounding the management of Amu Darya's water resources, the countries of Central Asia must embrace strategic measures:
- Transition to Sustainable Farming: A shift towards sustainable agricultural practices is imperative. Diversifying crops in both nations is essential, as the unsustainable reliance on vast cotton plantations for irrigation depletes water resources. Exploring alternative crops can alleviate pressure on the precious water supply.
- Institutional and Legal Regulation: Recognizing Afghanistan's rights to utilize the waters of the Amu Darya and actively involving them in interstate agreements are critical steps. The inclusion of Afghanistan into the Interstate Coordinating Water Commission (ICWC) and the International Fund for Saving the Aral Sea can foster cooperative water management and strengthen regional partnerships.
- Introduction of Sustainable Irrigation Systems: Pioneering sustainable irrigation methods is vital. Implementing water-saving techniques, such as drip irrigation systems and the reuse of collector and drainage water, can significantly mitigate water scarcity. Efficient management of return water can also play a pivotal role in alleviating the region's water challenges.
In conclusion, the "status quo" approach in the transboundary water management realm of the region will inevitably lead to an unprecedented water crisis, exacerbated by the impacts of climate change. The ongoing Afghan issue concerning the Qosh Tepe Canal further amplifies the looming shortage of water resources in Central Asia. Urgent and collaborative action is indispensable to address these complex water management challenges and secure a sustainable future for the region.
June analytical articles by foreign platforms discussed Kazakhstan’s foreign policy dynamics, “foreign agents” law in Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan’s relations with Russia, the opening of a new city in Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan’s FDI opportunities, and other important topics in the region.
Decolonisation of Central Asia: Policy Notes were developed based on the discussions during the regional conference Decolonisation of Central Asia: reshaping narratives, held in Almaty on March 15-17, 2023. Each document is addressed to a specific sector and includes civil society, government, media and international organisations.
One of the noteworthy events in May 2023 for the Central Asian countries was the recent China plus Central Asia summit held in Xi’an. CABAR.asia collected insights from regional experts, focusing on the summit’s outcomes, the strengths, and weaknesses of this mode of interaction, and emerging trends in China’s collaboration with the five countries in the region. (more…)
May’s analytical articles in foreign press discussed Kazakhstan’s foreign relations, a new form authoritarianism in Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan’s widening crackdown on human rights activists, Turkmenistan’s rising geopolitical role, as well as the 2023 China-Central Asia summit. (more…)